Bonnie Advisories

[PuertoRicoLibre]

According to the U.S. Navy report the system is over an upper high, which is good for the system and bad for us. On the other hand, it seemed cut off in front in a sw to ne direction for a while, as pointed out by M. Watkins but that seems to have receded somewhat. Hard to tell at this stage about its prospects, but it is August, the odds are in its favor anyway and the chances for additional development increase, especially if she slows down, something she is forecasted to do as it moves on a more wnw direction in response to the trough. Any info on current forward speed, T numbers and stacking?

[PuertoRicoLibre]

The dynamic model is in closer agreement with the tropical suite. Interesting. Better for Puerto Rico if it is a significant TS or a H., but bad for the Virgin Islands and St. Croix and the Leewards. Let's keep it under watch.

[Wnghs2007]

Thanks Scott. I think the models may be over hyping the trough. But I still would expect some sort of northwestward movment with this system should it develop.

[Renata]

I eat my hat (and my surfboard) if this thing travels along the path that the models plot. If you look at the thing is is not even travelling in that direction.

There must be a thinking that it is not yet a depression and therefore there is no spiining.

[Nimbus]

Initially storm tracks are difficult to predict. Usually they either start from the left and sweep right with the warnings as the storm progresses or start right and sweep left with the warnings as they did this time. Lets hope this storm has enough interaction with the trough to keep it out of the GOM.

[The_Cycloman_PR]

Thunderstorm activity has expanded over night and looks very well organized. Convection is very concentrated this morning and it has very good outflow indicating a well placed UL ridge over it. There's also little to none vertical shear in the area giving exellent conditions for the wave/low today. If it mantain this structure for all day, I won't be surprised if NHC gives the TD status for 91L later...



I don't see it moving too much northwest, think is moving WNW right now so that concern me a little bit. It could be very near us by Friday if it mantains it's present movement...
[img]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html

Any coments about this situation??

[caribepr]

As usual you answer my questions before I ask them. Friday is now NOT the day I will hang clothes on the line!

[caneman]

It is already South of these tracks. Will be interesting to see the next model map.

[abajan]

The early morning and late afternoon visible shots really show where the heavy stuff is located:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... VIS/20.jpg

TD status very likely later today.

[cycloneye]

They are waiting for the first visibles and they will upgrade at 11 AM.Looks like a couple of bad weather days ahead for the islands tommorow and from thursday for the Virgin islands and Puerto Rico.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL912004) ON 20040803 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040803 1200 040804 0000 040804 1200 040805 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.9N 53.3W 13.8N 56.6W 14.7N 59.4W 15.5N 61.8W
BAMM 12.9N 53.3W 13.7N 56.9W 14.5N 60.2W 15.3N 63.2W
A98E 12.9N 53.3W 13.5N 57.2W 14.2N 60.7W 14.9N 63.6W
LBAR 12.9N 53.3W 13.7N 57.0W 14.3N 60.5W 14.8N 63.8W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040805 1200 040806 1200 040807 1200 040808 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.4N 63.8W 18.5N 66.2W 21.3N 67.6W 22.9N 69.6W
BAMM 16.0N 65.7W 17.7N 69.3W 20.4N 71.6W 22.9N 72.9W
A98E 15.3N 66.0W 17.4N 69.5W 19.7N 72.1W 23.5N 74.9W
LBAR 15.0N 66.7W 16.5N 71.2W 17.7N 73.4W 23.2N 73.3W
SHIP 49KTS 60KTS 66KTS 70KTS
DSHP 49KTS 60KTS 40KTS 44KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.9N LONCUR = 53.3W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 20KT
LATM12 = 12.3N LONM12 = 49.0W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 20KT
LATM24 = 11.4N LONM24 = 45.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

The latest tracks move whatever this sytem may be when it passes the longitud of Puerto Rico just to my south.

[caneman]

yeah, this isn't good. It's coming in more South and the longer it stays weak. Gulp..........

[Brent]

Uh oh!

[Guest]

[Dean4Storms]

http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/AL9104MDL01.html

[jlauderdal]

http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/AL9104MDL01.html

Its a model out in time so the cone is rather large at this point. I would suspect you will see that change in time as usual.

[Ola]

Those are not the latest, these are http://net-waves.com/weather/model.php

chose 91L

[Ola]

I see dead people.....................

[Dean4Storms]

Wind Shear decreasing out in front of 91L!!

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[Stormchaser16]

LOL