Alex Advisories

[soonertwister]

Alex is getting mighty close to the Outer Banks, and it is really looking like he's going to sweep right over them. Even a very slight turn toward the north could make things much worse out there.

I hope that anybody who's staying out there is prepared for one hell of a rough time.

Not at all what I was hoping for.

[Hyperstorm]

Yes, Derek. I was thinking the same thing. I think this system could easily make it to strong Cat 1 or 2. Hopefully it will not come closer to land. Sometimes these surges coming southward from the trough pull the systems north rather abruptly.

[Thunder44]

The 8pm Advisory now has it at 90mph.

[Derek Ortt]

Never expected Alex to be THIS strong. Likely cat 2 now later this morning

[ncbird]

Ach.... 8am just came out and Alex is up to 90 mph and we were right.. they have him moving NNE. Not good for our outer banks. Locals are watching him real close here and have been saying if he moved more NNE than NE it could mean Hatteras riding the eye wall.

Anyone out on the outer islands.... buckle up for a bumpy ride and all stay safe.

[Hyperstorm]

Never expected Alex to be THIS strong. Likely cat 2 now later this morning

Very interesting situation to say the least. This is surely what the Gulf Stream can do for a system.I remember Irene in 1999 which developed RAPIDLY from weak Cat 1 to strong Cat 2 in a matter of 6-12 hours when it traversed the VERY WARM Gulf Stream waters. I'm becoming concerned with the people in the Outer Banks which were preparing for a WEAK tropical storm yesterday morning. What a difference a day can make!

972 MB certainly supports Cat 2 status so the winds should react to the pressure drop shortly. Cat 2 for sure later today...

[Brent]

OMG! Isabel was only a Cat 2 at landfall.

[BayouVenteux]

The data reports from the various observation bouys around SC & NC are unimpressive.

True enough. Though current conditions at Cape Lookout, while not severe, are in relative terms, certainly no day at the beach. Not a wink...that's sand in my eyes.

Wind Direction (WDIR): NE ( 40 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 40 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 49 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.45 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.24 in ( Falling Rapidly )

[cycloneye]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
03/1145 UTC 12.9N 53.3W T1.5/2.0 91 -- Atlantic Ocean
03/1145 UTC 34.2N 76.5W T4.5/4.5 ALEX -- Atlantic Ocean

Looks like Alex is a bit more stronger this morning and 91 is on the same status as yesterday in terms of the winds.

[Derek Ortt]

the latest recon report is making me sick. If this hits, we may have a major disaster as the outer banks were not evacuated

[VaBch]

Hi all, I have found this forum very helpful when hurricane season is upon us.
So I thought I would come out of hiding to give you a "bird's eye" view from neck of the woods.
We are already water logged from the summer's rains so the torrential downpours that we are currently receiving are very unwelcome.

We are not expected to receive much wind however the amount of rain is of great concern.

I do feel bad very OBX as they haven't had much prep time at all.
My folks have a place in Kitty Hawk and we have had to evacuate so I know first hand how difficult that would be. Actually I don't see how anyone would even want to do that at this late date anyway.
Those poor tourists!

[vbhoutex]

Hurricane Alex with a central pressure of 9724mb, or 28.702 inches, is just off of the North Carolina coast this morning and is currently moving in a Nort-Northeasterly direction at 14 mph. This track, expected to continue for the next 24 hours with a slow increase in forward speed will bring Alex very close to or over the outer banks of NC late this morning. Any motion furhter to the left of this track will bring Alex slightly inland.The center is near latitude 34.1 north, longitude 76.5 west or about 35 miles south of Cape Lookout, North Carolina. Convection associated with this system is still mostly East of the center but radars do indcate that convection is wrapping almost all the way around the well formed eye and is beginning to move inland in some areas. Highest sustained winds associated with Alex are 90 mph with higher gusts mostly in squalls East of the center. Tropical Storm force winds extend up to 105 miles from ths center and Hurricane force winds extend up to 25 miles from the center. Winds to 56 mph have been reported at Cape Lookout, NC. A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Cape Lookout, North Carolina, to Oregon Inlet, North Carolia including Pamlico Sound. A tropical storm warning is in effect from North of Oregon inlet to the North Carolina/Virginia border, including the Albemarle sound. A tropical storm warning remains in effect from Cape Fear to Cape Lookout North Carolina. Conditons in the area are favorable for Hurricane Alex to continue to slowly intensify and some indications are that this is happening this morning as convection begins to wrap around the center. Storm tides can be expected to be 1-2 feet above normal to the East of the center which may cause some coastal flooding in low lying areas. Storm surge flooding of 2-4 feet can be expected in Pamlico Sound. Rainfall amounts can be expected to be in the 2-4 inch range with a few possibly higher amounts in isolated areas. For details of how Hurricane Alex will affect your area please monitor the forecasts issued by your local NWS office and the NHC.

A tropical wave located about 530 miles East of the Windward Islands continues moving West-Northwestward around 20 mph and is showing signs of more organization and has a 1012mb low associated with it. Continued development of this system is expected over the next few days and a tropical depression may form later today. All interests in the Lesser Antilles, Islands need to closely moitor the progress of this developing disturbance.

Another tropical wave located just West of the Cape Verde Islands has thunderstorm activity concentrated around a low pressure area, but shows no well defined ciculation center at this time. Further development, if any of this system will be slow to occur due to cooler waters ahead of it.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclone development is not expected in the Atlantic Basin through Wednesday.

This is NOT an OFFICIAL product of the NHC. For OFFICIAL products contact the NHC or your local weather offices.

By David Van Bergen(vbhoutex)

As always comments are welcomed.

[Aquawind]

Ohh Alex is stronger alrighty...91L..not much has changed overnight..THe convection has persisted and has some cold tops but other than that..no stacking...unless it's relocated under the convection..nice persistant convection ball though..

[ncbird]

Locals just did an update and are saying with the increased forward speed of Alex they are looking at the eye comming extreamly close to Hatteras around 11 am this morning with a possiblity of eye hitting it.

I agree with you this can be real a real disaster. No evacuation and many tourist who have no idea what to expect or do in a hurricane. Last night I herd there were even some campers out in the outer banks.

I am on the outer edge of him and the weather station is registering winds steady at 20 - 23 mps and with our highest gust being 34. So I can only imagine that Morehead and those closer are getting rocked pretty good already.

[ncweatherwizard]

the latest recon report is making me sick. If this hits, we may have a major disaster as the outer banks were not evacuated

It'll be fine up here...be a brush like Emily in 1993, and that storm was stronger...some around here may disagree..but it's only a hurricane---common sense will take care of everything else.

[Derek Ortt]

The last recon report has this right on the edge of becoming a MAJOR hurricane

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl012004.html


I didnt use the words major hurricane and the 100 m.p.h. winds may be conservative as the FL reduction of 105KT from 700mb is 95 not 85KT

[ncweatherwizard]

Hurr. force winds, however, barely extend from the center...if you're worried about storm surge...well--I guess we'll just have to see now. I just hope tourists down here have enough sense to stay out of the water particularly and go farther in the beach if needed.

[Aquawind]

That is a scary forecast compared to 24 hours ago..NC is getting punched a little harder than expected..landfall or not..

[Wnghs2007]

Hurr. force winds, however, barely extend from the center...if you're worried about storm surge...well--I guess we'll just have to see now. I just hope tourists down here have enough sense to stay out of the water particularly and go farther in the beach if needed.

But still it looks like the eye may hit Hatteras Island out on the cape. And with current radar presintation and Recon reports I do agree with Derek that this thing is dangerously close to Cat. 3.