TD 2 - Future Track

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stormernie

TD 2 - Future Track

#1 Postby stormernie » Tue Aug 03, 2004 10:32 am

While all the models are predicting a turn to the NW and then North with time I will caution that the depression could very well end up going below the trough and then curve up thru Cuba and into the Southeast Gulf or even the Florida area.

I base this on the fact that it is basically heading due west right now, if it remains weak or even a minimal TS then the high forward speed may cause the timing of the trough interaction to be delay and much further west. If this happens than obliously the circumstances could be that it in the Carribbean and it travels much further west than anticipated.

As always comments and thoughts are welcome...

Ernie
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Re: TD 2 - Future Track

#2 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Aug 03, 2004 10:33 am

stormernie wrote:While all the models are predicting a turn to the NW and then North with time I will caution that the depression could very well end up going below the trough and then curve up thru Cuba and into the Southeast Gulf or even the Florida area.

I base this on the fact that it is basically heading due west right now, if it remains weak or even a minimal TS then the high forward speed may cause the timing of the trough interaction to be delay and much further west. If this happens than obliously the circumstances could be that it in the Carribbean and it travels much further west than anticipated.

As always comments and thoughts are welcome...

Ernie


ANything is possible but this one has fish written all over it.
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#3 Postby Stormchaser16 » Tue Aug 03, 2004 10:34 am

Alot of posts going on about the same exact topic, and again i will respond to this.....

Alex and the trough heading off the coast now will allow for the Bermuda high to retreat and allow Bonnie to move northwest within 36 hours. If we didnt have a trough clearing the coast now then i would say it has a chance of staying more west, however this situation is different.
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#4 Postby lilbump3000 » Tue Aug 03, 2004 10:38 am

See the NHC track has it already starting a wnw track and the system is racing due west right now. So only time will tell but i think if or when it does turn, it might get a little more west than they think before it turns. JMO.
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#5 Postby dixiebreeze » Tue Aug 03, 2004 10:55 am

Steering currents are relative weak throughout the Atlantic storm basin right now -- look at Alex, for example. I doubt any super strong troughs or such will be picking up anything for a while.
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#6 Postby TS Zack » Tue Aug 03, 2004 10:59 am

Good point Dixie. The models also can over estimate this trough. How often do you see a trough that strong in August?
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#7 Postby dixiebreeze » Tue Aug 03, 2004 11:01 am

TS Zack wrote:Good point Dixie. The models also can over estimate this trough. How often do you see a trough that strong in August?


Not often at all, Zack. Looking for a super busy season through Sept.
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#8 Postby Guest » Tue Aug 03, 2004 11:04 am

If the trough is in place over the east, shouldn't this force Bonnie to move west and slightly north towards the cuba or even Florida east side?
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#9 Postby Anonymous » Tue Aug 03, 2004 11:07 am

Guys, it is not yet Bonnie. Plenty of time to watch it.
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#10 Postby Trader Ron » Tue Aug 03, 2004 11:08 am

Looks like a Fish to me. We'll see....:)
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#11 Postby Josephine96 » Tue Aug 03, 2004 11:16 am

You guys are calling fish already lol.. Let it get within a few miles of somebody's coast 1st lol

Central Florida's last hurricane=1995 Erin :wink:
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#12 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 03, 2004 11:20 am

Trader Ron wrote:Looks like a Fish to me. We'll see....:)


No fish for the lesser antille islands nor Puerto Rico.
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#13 Postby Trader Ron » Tue Aug 03, 2004 11:29 am

Luis,

You are correct. I should have clarified my statement. I meant for the U.S.
Stay safe...
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#14 Postby Stormchaser16 » Tue Aug 03, 2004 11:35 am

Alx----- no it would pick it up and turn it out to sea, thus how troughs protect the east coast

The EC is a very good MR model, and i would not disagree with it, especially given the current setup that is shaping in the Atlantic, no reason for it not to be a fish.

And to answer the question how often do we see these troguhs in august......... not very often but this year is unusually active in terms of the troughs we have been seeing, case closed
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#15 Postby stormchazer » Tue Aug 03, 2004 11:38 am

Stormchaser16 wrote:And to answer the question how often do we see these troguhs in august......... not very often but this year is unusually active in terms of the troughs we have been seeing, case closed


I wish to redirect.....TD 2 is an infant and the models do not initialize well with a non-classified system. We will wait for the data to come in and then see whether the trough will indeed turn it to the fish.

Your witness....
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