Alex Advisories

[HalloweenGale]

I am gonna hate to do this... but I have to stop in Bermuda!

[Derecho]

Thought everyone might get a snicker at what the local county government here is telling residents and tourists:

From http://www.darenc.com/EmgyMgmt/Alert/index.asp

Bulletin Number: 2
Date/Time: 8/3/04 6:44:53 AM
Bulletin Text: Hatteras Island remains under a Hurricane Warning. Areas north of Oregon Inlet (including Duck, Southern Shores, Kitty Hawk, Kill Devil Hills, Nags Head and Manteo/Dare Mainland) remain under a Tropical Storm Warning. Hurricane Alex is predicted to remain offshore as it continues to track northeast. While the storm has increased in intensity, hurricane force winds are not expected to reach Hatteras Island or other areas of Dare County. Tropical force winds (34 m.p.h. to 50 m.p.h.) will reach southern Hatteras Island by 9 a.m. and are expected to remain on Hatteras Island until about 7:00 p.m. Tuesday. No tropical force winds are expected north of Oregon Inlet. Storm force and hurricane force winds are not expected to reach the area, but are forecasted to remain offshore, east of Hatteras. Boaters should remain in port today. Campers and those outdoors should remain vigilant as high wind gusts associated with rain bands and thunderstorms are expected. Swimming is not advised as rip currents will be strong with high seas and rough surf. Motorists should use precautions while driving, particularly south of Oregon Inlet. Residents and visitors are advised to closely monitor the storm’s progress throughout the day.

They obviously had not seen the latest update when they posted this!!

Nope, actually they had seen the latest info.

And they're going to turn out to be correect.

There aren't going to be any hurricane force winds on land from Alex, AND the the NHC forecast track and wind radii forecast have had NO hurricane force winds over land (despite the hurricane warning.)

The Hurricane Warning was a path of least regret decision. A judgement call, but it's interesting it conflicted with the actual NHC forecast.

Nothing to snicker about at all.

[vbhoutex]

HURRICANE ALEX
Alex a category two hurricane as it parallels the outer banks,

At 11 am edt, 1500 utc, the tropical storm warning is discontinued south of surf
city north carolina. A tropical storm warning remains in effect from surf city
to cape lookout.

A hurricane warning remains in effect from cape lookout to Oregon inlet north
carolina, including the pamlico sound. This means that hurricane conditions are
expected within the warning area during the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should have been completed.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect from north of Oregon inlet to the
north carolina/virginia border, including the albemarle sound.

At 11 am edt, 1500z, the center of hurricane alex was located near latitude 34.7
north, longitude 75.8 west or about 40 miles south-southwest of cape hatteras
north carolina.

Alex is moving toward the northeast near 15 mph. A northeastward motion with a
small increase in forward speed is expected during the next 24 hours. On the
forecast track, the center of alex is expected to remain just offshore the north
carolina outer banks. However, any motion to the left of the expected track
could bring the center of the hurricane over the outer banks.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph, with higher gusts. Little change in
strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles, mainly to the east of the
center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb, 28.70 inches.

Additional rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches can be expected in
association with alex.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels can be
expected on atlantic shorelines. Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above
normal tide levels can be expected inside pamlico sound. High surf and rip
currents will affect much of the southeastern and mid-atlantic u.s. Coastal
areas for the next couple of days.

Isolated tornadoes are possible over the outer banks this afternoon.

Repeating the 11 am edt position, 34.7 n, 75.8 w. Movement toward, northeast
near 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds, 100 mph. Minimum central pressure, 972 mb.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by
your local weather office.

Intermediate advisories will be issued by the national hurricane center at 1 pm
edt and 3 pm edt followed by the next complete advisory at 5 pm edt.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NO. 2

Tropical depression forms in the tropical atlantic east of the lesser antilles,

Tropical storm watches and warnings will likely be issued later today for some
of the lesser antilles. Interests in the lesser antilles, virgin islands and
puerto rico should closely monitor the progress of this system.

At 11 am edt, 1500z, the center of newly formed tropical depression two was
located near latitude 13.2 north, longitude 54.2 west or about 460 miles, 735
km, east of the windward islands.

The depression is moving toward the west near 21 mph, 33 km/hr. On this track
the tropical cyclone will be affecting portions of the lesser antilles on
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph, 45 km/hr, with higher gusts. Some
strengthening is forecast and the system could become a tropical storm before it
reaches the lesser antilles.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb, 29.80 inches.

Repeating the 11 am edt position, 13.2 n, 54.2 w. Movement toward, west near 21
mph. Maximum sustained winds, 30 mph. Minimum central pressure, 1009 mb.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by
your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at 5 pm edt.

Sorry for not posting my own obs, but I am too busy at work to do more today.

[vbhoutex]

The eyewall is just a few miles from Cape Hatteras. It will be a real close call as to whether there is actual landfall or not. Doesn't matter much when you are withing 10 miles of the eye itself in a CAT2 Hurricane.

[Pebbles]

The eyewall is just a few miles from Cape Hatteras. It will be a real close call as to whether there is actual landfall or not. Doesn't matter much when you are withing 10 miles of the eye itself in a CAT2 Hurricane.

Agree! Only concerned because of the lack of prep. Feel so horrid about all this as no one saw it coming and thus wasn't prepared for it. Even if "the locals are use to this" it's cause they are usually prepared for it. Can't help but have a twisted stomach watching the radar loops. Prayers for all those on the banks.

[wx247]

If you have been to the outer banks you know how small some of these islands that people live on actually are. I wouldn't want to be there right now.

I agree Pebbles... thoughts and prayers.

[Derecho]

Recon has never found hurricane force winds on the NW side of the storm; even in the eyewall.

It's not nearly as bad as people are imagining it;

And they were perfectly adequately warned well ahead of time for what they'll actually get, which is TS conditions.

[soonertwister]

Recon has never found hurricane force winds on the NW side of the storm; even in the eyewall.

It's not nearly as bad as people are imagining it;

And they were perfectly adequately warned well ahead of time for what they'll actually get, which is TS conditions.

Guess what, Derecho?

That's pretty smug considering that in the next hour or so they will be getting eyewall winds at Hatteras, and those winds could be at 105 mph or more. Not to worry, right?

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS ... kmhx.shtml

[Wnghs2007]

Here is the latest radar. And it looks as if the western part of the eye will make land fall on Cape Hatteras. I have been running loops and the forward motion will propel it onto land. IF you are on this board. And live in cape hatteras. I advise you to seek shelter Immediatley if you have not already done so.

[dixiebreeze]

Good advice. I have relatives in Jacksonville (NC) Hope they're aware of what's going on

[ncbird]

Pebbles and I spoke about this earlier this morning. Many who have never been in a hurricane just don't seem to understand it doesn't understand that the eye making landfall doesn't matter. Its the eyewall where all the wind is. From the looks of the first alert radar (allows me to zoom in on the area) I am looking at on my other computer the edge of the eyewall seems to be just starting to clip the widest point of the island now. My prayer go out to them also.

[PTrackerLA]

Wow that nasty looking northern eyewall is about to slam into hatteras. I hope everyone there has taken the proper precautions.

[Pebbles]

Recon has never found hurricane force winds on the NW side of the storm; even in the eyewall.

It's not nearly as bad as people are imagining it;

And they were perfectly adequately warned well ahead of time for what they'll actually get, which is TS conditions.

I have to politely disagree with this. You may be right in that they may only see tropical force winds..I don't have enough information or knowlege to make a call on that. But the main problems with the banks is and always has been beach erosion. They are going to have to deal with higher surf/waves/water tubulance then expected from a Cat 2 storm even if they don't get hit by the 'worst winds'. This in itself will cause allot more damage then expected. I don't post this with any concrete evidence on the matter...only my observations from living down there. So if I am wrong will gladly eat even more crow then I am already. *hugs*

[Wnghs2007]

Sorry folks the picture updated and Now you cant see what I was seeing. But there was one nasty northern Eyewall about to hit Cape Hatteras like PTrakerLA said.

[ncweatherwizard]

Here's the link:

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... pdate.html

But it's short enough that I'll just post it.

Hurricane Alex Special Update 8A
NOON EDT TUES AUG 3 2004

...Alex nears coastline...

At NOON, the eye of Hurricane Alex was centered near 34.9N 75.7W. The northern portion of the eye is located near 35.1N 75.7W. The eyewall of the hurricane is strongest in the northern quadrants of the eye, and is located about 10 miles south of Cape Hatteras, NC. The northernmost portion of the eyewall is currently coming ashore at the cape, and the heaviest winds and rain will arrive in about 15 to 20 minutes. Areas effected will be Hatteras Village, Frisco, Buxton. Avon can expect hurricane force winds within the next hour to hour and a half. Storm surge will range from 6 to 8 feet, and flooding could occur, and in some locations, water could pass over the island in narrow areas.

[PTrackerLA]

Any obs from hatteras available? I would bet to see 100mph+ gusts on the island within the next hour.

[ncbird]

Our locals have been reporting there were 90+ mph winds in the northern band of winds around the eye which is what is hitting them now on. Sounds like hurricane force winds to me.

[Guest]

the news people in and near Cape Hatteras don't seem to make any importance to this.

http://www.wral.com/video/3609421/detail.html

[Derek Ortt]

would like to appologize if nwhhc has been slow. Have received a report that it has been this morning

[Josephine96]

Silly question.. If Alex reaches Cat 3 strength before it makes landfall somewhere like the Cape {if it ever does} that would end the streak of years since the US was hit by a major, right..?