BOC about to heat up........

#1 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 8:43 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/GMEX/IR4/20.jpg

Add that mix of convection with the rapidly falling pressures in mid-GOM and something just might generate.

#2 Postby **Hurricanehink** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 9:06 pm

Is that convection diurnal? It seemed to just pop up out of nowhere. Still, it bears watching. Give it another few days.

#3 Postby **bevgo** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 9:08 pm

Dixie--I sure hope you are not right this time. I have seen you pinpoint things many times. Oh well we just have to wait and see.

corpusbreeze · #4 Postby **corpusbreeze** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 9:17 pm

Dixie I just dont see anything, I wish I could. Yeah there is lots of storms but no spin anywhere. Besides Texas has a high pressure building sucking the life out of any rain. I guess you guys in Florida need the rain, but the flow is to the west . I think you need to be looking at 91L.

#5 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 9:19 pm

That convection just formed over the Yucatan Peninsula thanks to the diurnal effects, it will most likely (99.9%) dissipate over the next few hours. There is nothing to look for from that pop-up.

#6 Postby **BayouVenteux** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 9:41 pm

Hmm. Looks like your typical early evening MCS blow up coming off the Yu-P. Wouldn't worry about it too much unless there's still a big red/black bullseye blob out in the BoC on the IR tomorrow morning.

Maybe it's just me, but blob watching kinda loses it's early season appeal at this point as the CV pinwheels are starting to roll for real. Vigilance is a virtue tho'.

#7 Postby **BayouVenteux** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 9:42 pm

Hmm. Looks like your typical early evening MCS blow up coming off the Yu-P. Wouldn't worry about it too much unless there's still a big red/black bullseye blob out in the BoC on the IR tomorrow morning.

Maybe it's just me, but blob watching kinda loses it's early season appeal at this point as the CV pinwheels are starting to roll for real. Vigilance is a virtue tho'.

#8 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 10:38 pm

Actually, I wasn't suggesting anything is happening at this moment, just that conditions could be ripe soon. :idea:

#9 Postby **BayouVenteux** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 10:53 pm

dixiebreeze wrote:Actually, I wasn't suggesting anything is happening at this moment, just that conditions could be ripe soon.

I agree. It could be prime ground for a WNW moving CV storm to go completely ballistic should all the factors fall into place. :eek:

Johnny · #10 Postby **Johnny** » Tue Aug 03, 2004 11:15 am

Well, as of late Tuesday morning, convection is still present in the central Gulf.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Derecho · #11 Postby **Derecho** » Tue Aug 03, 2004 11:21 am

Remember,

A storm forms in the BOC about once every 4 years. The ratio of "watch the BOC" posts to actual BOC development has to be something like 500 to 1.

Johnny · #12 Postby **Johnny** » Tue Aug 03, 2004 11:23 am

I was actually referring to the central gulf, not the BOC. I see your point though.

#13 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Tue Aug 03, 2004 11:25 am

Derecho wrote:Remember,

A storm forms in the BOC about once every 4 years. The ratio of "watch the BOC" posts to actual BOC development has to be something like 500 to 1.

Love your statistics, Derecho -- very calming

TxAggie · #14 Postby **TxAggie** » Tue Aug 03, 2004 12:35 pm

Wondering if we are seeing another Allison type storm. Forming right off shore and then blocked by a high pressure ridge...

BOC about to heat up........

BOC about to heat up........

Oh Boy!

Who is online