Alex makes MGC eat crow.....

[ColdFront77]

MGC, chances of this system to develop were ongoing, hours before it became a Tropical Depression. You typically are conservative in your thinking of tropical cyclone development; going against the NHC thoughts.

[SacrydDreamz]

1010MB to 988 MB in a day is nothing to sneeze at!

True..... significant but not rapid given the time period. Just my opinion

[SacrydDreamz]

Is the LLCC under the convection yet?

Anytime you see a recon that says the eyewall is closed and 25nm in diamter...you can safely assume the center is under the convection

Very good point. We NOW have an eye.. wasn't much of an eye earlier..

But what we were saying was it was the beginning of an eye forming...not that it was fully blown. The recon earlier this afternoon verified that...and so...yes...that feature on the vis shot was the beginnings of an eye...and it coincided with recon and radar. That was the entire point from this morning...and what Dr. Lyons was saying. An eye doesn't just pop up out of nowhere...it has to begin at some point and be in the initial stages...and that is what we were saying this morning.

I didn't see it coincide with the radar signature this morning, it appeared to me as the western side of the storm warmed and the clouds eroded a bit you could then see the center of circulation. I recall the clearing area rotating in from away from the center..... This area later filled before the eye wall formed completely, or at least that's how it appeared. Anyhow the title of the thread was in regards to an 'eye' which had popped. That clear area was not the eye, nor was it the eye forming IMO as it was displaced from the center of circulation.

[Stormsfury]

Now I wouldn't go and say that the storm has rapidly intensified.... it still isn't that impressive, relatively speaking.

New vortex message ... down to 988mb and a closed eyewall ... in the amount of time that it had, I'm fairly impressed ...

SF

It's had all day with fairly favorable conditions.... over the Gulf Stream..... could be MUCH more explosive.

Well, considering much of that time, it had to consolidate itself, dealing with NE shear, then the s/w ridge (and the window of opportunity), and very soon, the SW shear ...

Development would have been more significant head it been more established .. and in fact, Alex lost some convection (thus the leveling off of pressures earlier today, but hey, the diurnal processes don't apply here, generally the convection is healthier at night.) before the new blowup of convection occurred around the center ...

Also with the small compact size, Alex is very susceptible to any interference (shear, no shear) ... and can undergo quick pulses either way ....

SF

[soonertwister]

To all,

I just posted that last post here for fun. It wasn't meant as a jab at anyone. I've been following hurricanes for quite a few years, and I'm no expert.

These things make a habit out of fooling everyone at one time or another, which is part of what makes them fascinating to me. Nobody could have predicted three days ago that we would be looking at a probable category 2 storm right now, with the possibility of a category 3 with the eye sweeping over the Outer Banks.

These things weren't supposed to happen, and I didn't believe they would. I eat my own share of that humble pie this morning.

[Brent]

I'm having more crow for lunch. Sheesh. At least I can take comfort in knowing EVERYONE blew it, even the professionals.

[Pebbles]

*hold out her plate with one hand while plucking a feather out of the corner of her mouth* More Crow Pie please!

[LaPlaceFF]

And for dessert....humble pie!!!! LOL

[MGC]

Baked Crow, Stewed Crow, Fried Crow. I like my crow. Sunday I'd have never, ever say Alex would be a 100mph cane. Well, now that I've made my one mistake this season........MGC

[Stormsfury]

Also with the small compact size, Alex is very susceptible to any interference (shear, no shear) ... and can undergo quick pulses either way ....

SF

Wow ... didn't think I'd quote my own self and see how prophetic that turned out to be.

SF

[Stephanie]

Isn't that a part of the fun of forecasting big storms? I think that Alex took everyone by surprise. My faith hasn't waivered in any of you!

[Lindaloo]

Same here Steph!