Bonnie Advisories

[lilbump3000]

Heres a image.

[Brent]

The NHC track is way too far north then. The 120 hour position is at 30.0 N, 72.0 W. Not one of those models has a position close to that.

In fact, all the positions are too far north.

If it tracks across Hispanola though it's going to weaken significantly. Might not even make it if it's only a TS or minimal hurricane.

[lilbump3000]

Now at 5 p.m. when the new advisory come out, the national hurricane center will shift they track futher to the west based on the models.

[yoda]

Question here. IF those three models are correct and Bonnie (if it becomes that) enters the Bahamas, won't it be then drawn straight north because of the trough?

[yoda]

Hmm.. I don't like it that 3 of the models are taking the future Bonnie over DR.. that will weaken it considerably IF THAT HAPPENS.

[lilbump3000]

Dont get all worried about it with the DR and it weakening. It most likely will pass over, but we have a few more days to watch it and the models are going to keep changing and you never know it might miss it and go south of it.

[yoda]

I know, but the DR has been notorious for causing canes to weaken. We will see as the models change every run and everday.

[Brent]

If it's still moving at almost 20 mph when it crosses Haiti/DR it won't weaken as much, as long as it keeps moving.

[Anonymous]

Yes it is indeed. In fact, the 240 hr ECMWF shows a monster trough in the East:






sorry folks. This looks like an early fall to me, with perhaps a reduced possibility of landfalling hurricanes.

[c5Camille]

yeah... we are still talking about days in advance...
check out the models for alex 5 days ago....

[Josephine96]

The system slows down it would allow it to strengthen and for possibly a trough to pick it up later..

Will be watching here in Central Florida for sure..

[Agua]

I had seen a site a couple years ago which animated the NHC tracks throughout the life of several storms. It was pretty wild to see the way the forcasted tracks at the outer limits whipped around all over the place throughout the animations.

Let's hope the thing recurves sooner rather than later.

[Josephine96]

Good idea Luis.. Now lets' get back to what the discussion was.. Where's she going>

[yoda]

If it goes w/in 100 miles of the Bahamas before starting to curve... IMO, it will make landfall somewhere on the East Coast.

[Pebbles]

Hard to see the future is. Always in motion the future is. Hmm 2 Bonnies in 6 years? Fascinating it would be if Bonnie hit NC again..

*uses her massive wannabe Jedi powers* IT will be a fish...A FISH I TELL YA!!!!

Of course...nothing to back it up..just -removed-.

[Josephine96]

LOL Nothing wrong with -removed- here and there

[stormernie]

It seems that Barbados may get the full blunt of the TD2, however, in looking at the latest satellite loop - TD 2 looks sluggish and may be reorganizing a little further south than previous located.

If this is the case than it may have a bigger impact on the Windward Islands (Barbados, St. Lucia, Dominca), also, it continues to clip toward the west.

Ernie

[yoda]

Well, the farther south it is, the longer it takes to recurve. That's if it does move WNW and NW down the road.

[c5Camille]

the recon will give us much needed info...
all we can do is wait and see...

[tallywx]

This TD is roaring westward and remains disorganized. Newest convection looks strikingly more waveform than banding. Low-level cloud tracks ahead of it in the Eastern Caribbean point almost due west, suggesting the system's directionality to come. IMO, this system will pass well south of PR and have to deal with the Tropical Zone of Death. If it shoots through too quickly, it could open back up into an open wave like so many TDs or TSs have done in this region in the past. It needs to slow down if it wants to develop, because other than its forward motion, upper-level winds are fine.