East Coast Shield

[boca]

looks like the East Coast protector will be up in full force to deflect any storm heading towards the SE US. The Florida dodge continues. At least for possible future of Bonnie.

[Josephine96]

Too early to tell but I would not be surprised if we have yet another near miss here

[yoda]

New model runs as of 12 UTC take Bonnie into Eastern Bahamas... NHC will probably move the track west some 50 miles, and HPC final progs show the trough is MOVING OUT per model agreement from GFS/ECMWF/UKMEt.

[Josephine96]

Now if the trough moves out.. all bets are off.. It could be an interesting next few days as we wait and see what this future Bonnie does..

Here in Florida I'll be keeping a close eye surely..

Interesting Note: Orlando students are scheduled to go back to school on Monday.. If Bonnie gets too strong and too close or comes this way.. they may actually have to push it back.. I don't know if that's ever happened before here..

[yoda]

from my AFD at 2:10 PM

SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BUILD IN
EFFICIENTLY LATE DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE
REGION. RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHILE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION RETURN ACROSS THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA LATE DURING THE FORECAST CYCLE.

[Josephine96]

Now if that trough moves out.. that could make for an interesting set up here...

It could mean Central or South Florida could be in future Bonnie's bulls eye

[yoda]

Hmm.. it seems we have a small window of opportunity. Track of Bonnie will be critical...

ETA/GFS/CANADIAN/EUROPEAN/UKMET IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
TRACKING THE HURRICANE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST. NEXT
MIDLEVEL WAVE/SURFACE FRONT AFFECT THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. AGREEMENT CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAINTAINING
THE NEXT EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. THIS IS SHOWN TO LIFT NORTHEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS A SECOND WAVE RECARVES THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH BY
MIDWEEK.

[Josephine96]

Hmm.. I didn't see that part

[Guest]

LatesT on TD2

02L.NONAME, WARN, 03 AUG 2004 1715Z UTC (Z)

WTNT02 KNGU 031500
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD (02L) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN ATLANTIC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z6 --- NEAR 13.2N6 54.2W1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N6 54.2W1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 14.0N5 57.0W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 15.0N6 60.5W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 16.5N2 64.0W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 18.0N9 67.0W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 21.0N3 69.5W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 25.5N2 71.0W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 30.0N3 72.0W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
---
REMARKS:
031500Z9 POSITION NEAR 13.2N6 54.2W1 APPROX 400NM ESE OF THE LEE­
WARD ISLANDS THERE ARE NO 12FT SEAS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z6, 040300Z7, 040900Z3 AND 041500Z0

[yoda]

LOL.. I just posted it, its from the same discussion.

IMO, we have a small window of opportunity in between troughs, probably no more than 36 hours. Bonnie's path will be critical to see if it sneaks in between and hits the East Coast or is REJECTED out to sea.

[Typhoon_Willie]

I guess we will have to wait and see then!

[Guest]

oK, I did not see it on the same thread, sorry.

[Stormchaser16]

I would stick with the EC at this point.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... &cu=latest

Strong cutoff low over the Northeast/SE Canada on day 5(through this weekend)

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... &cu=latest

Day 7 shows a new wave diving on down.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... &cu=latest

Day 10 average hints that a new trough will be carving into place.

[yoda]

Hmm... but have you seen the map above with the current model tracks? Wouldn't a trough stop Bonnie from heading into the Bahamas region?

[Scott_inVA]

Bad Timing Bonnie.

I think this looks not just reasonable, but likely:



Progged 1020 High also looks reasonable. Would like a trof along the Apps but that's asking for too much over the next few days. While there is NOTHING to suggest anything's brewing...I like the boundry hanging off FL into the Carib...that in August always is worth watching but no cigar down there at this time.

Scott

[yoda]

So this means to you Bonnie is.. fish storm?

[Brent]

I think the most likely scenario is Bonnie going out to sea.

[c5Camille]

but a cold front passing all the way to Miami!!!
in early AUGUST!!! you gotta be kidding me...

[c5Camille]

but a cold front passing all the way to Miami!!!
in early AUGUST!!! you gotta be kidding me...

[Stormchaser16]

Agreed, like ive said..... Bonnies fast motion towards an oncoming frontal boundary cannot make for anything but a fish storm. BUT BUT BUT..... the global models do build the high back north of Bonnie IF it does not take off too quickly, considering there is no trough behind the frontal boundary, one could suspect that Bonnie may hang up stationary for awhile or even loop back around if the highs become strong enough.