Bonnie Advisories

[yoda]

I don't think its ROARING westward. Latest discussion from NHC has it moving at 16 knots.

[Stormchaser16]

Right, upper level winds are pretty favorable for development(albeit SOME dry air) yet not enough to rip a somewhat organized system apart......

IF the system maintains a westward track through 24 hours, then it may NOT find the weakness in the trough that Alex and the combined EC trough could create.

[yoda]

ok. StormChaser, if it starts to turn WNW, could it find the "secret passage" through the area?

[Stormchaser16]

Hmmmmmm global models definately show a retreat in the Bermuda high which they agree should allow this to recurve towards a WNW or even NW track, however they then show more ridging coming into place off the east coast. IF the system makes its way NW then ridging comes into place, we could be looking at a looping or stationary system further down the road.

I still place my bets on a fish storm, however there are some interesting trends within the globals

[Stormchaser16]

Yoda, see that post i just made, there actually should be some type of weakness for it to move in between the two highs(bermuda and an incoming EC high pressure system)

[yoda]

Yes yes. Remember, always in motion the future is. Changes we will see yes yes. LOL!!

This will have to be watched closely, no doubt.

[Guest]

ok, what "secret passage"? I think if TD2 continues west the trough I believe will curve it WNW late into Crooked Island Passage and into florida. No fish, I just had fish with veggies last night.

[yoda]

ok, what "secret passage"? I think if TD2 continues west the trough I believe will curve it WNW late into Crooked Island Passage and into florida. No fish, I just had fish with veggies last night.

LOL!!

What I mean is that will Bonnie be able to sneak in while one trough goes away and another comes in to replace it.

[Stormchaser16]

Indeed it will

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... &cu=latest
^Crucial point
IF Bonnie makes it UNDER the trough that will come through during that time then it looks like it will have plenty of ridging to keep it on a more southern track then

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... &cu=latest


http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... &cu=latest

[Guest]

Ok, for a second I thought I was in a part of "Raiders of the Lost Ark"

[yoda]

Yoda, see that post i just made, there actually should be some type of weakness for it to move in between the two highs(bermuda and an incoming EC high pressure system)

Yes I saw it. Very nice post. We will watch it closely.

[dixiebreeze]

considerably in the past hour or so -- Bonnie wannabe looking really good now:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

[Stormchaser16]

Still pretty unconsolidated however

[yoda]

Indeed it will

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... &cu=latest
^Crucial point
IF Bonnie makes it UNDER the trough that will come through during that time then it looks like it will have plenty of ridging to keep it on a more southern track then

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... &cu=latest


http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... &cu=latest

So then it goes into FLA instead of NC area?

[yoda]

Eh, well. I see Bonnie in the 5 PM update, or at the latest, 5 Am tomorrow.

[Guest]

I wanna see it hit C. Florida. Why becuase I have been in one small hurrican in 1990 Hurricane Bob, I believe it was and while it was windy, I don't think it was all that nasty. I have been in too many earthquakes, I wanna hurricane, damn it.

[yoda]

I wanna see it hit C. Florida. Why becuase I have been in one small hurrican in 1990 Hurricane Bob, I believe it was and while it was windy, I don't think it was all that nasty. I have been in too many earthquakes, I wanna hurricane, damn it.

We will see...

[HurricaneGirl]

It looked better this morning

[dixiebreeze]

I wanna see it hit C. Florida. Why becuase I have been in one small hurrican in 1990 Hurricane Bob, I believe it was and while it was windy, I don't think it was all that nasty. I have been in too many earthquakes, I wanna hurricane, damn it.

BCOWYWF

[Weatherboy1]

So far, it still looks like a crazy (at least for mid-August), major East Coast trough will come barreling SE and save the US CONUS from having to deal with TD2. Latest 1800 UTC tropical models still forecasting that turn to the NW and N, and as this discussion below (From the Melbourne, FL NWS AFD) notes, the front/trof could get all the way to the middle of the FL peninsula. Having lived here all my life, I can't begin to tell you how odd this is for August. We usually don't get our first front passage until October. Oh well -- probably means 2 is a fish, though I certainly hope for our island friends on this board that the weather isn't too nasty in PR, the Leewards, etc.

SAT-TUE...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT...SUGGESTING A STRONGLY ANOMALOUS PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF OCTOBER THAN AUGUST ACROSS THE SE CONUS. COLD FRONT WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED EASTERN TROUGH. WHILE THE TIMING OF THE GFS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE...LITTLE VARIABILITY IN THE ENSEMBLES INDICATES THE INCREASING LIKELIHOOD THAT THE FRONT WILL AT LEAST MAKE IT INTO THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY SAT. SHARP GRADIENT IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT DROP IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES REFLECTED IN MEX GUIDANCE WITH PROJECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NORTHWARD LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.