Bonnie Advisories

[Brent]

When the Almighty Rainstorm speaks we all must listen with our FULL attention, for she is the supreme authority on tropical meteorology.

LOL! LOL! LOL!

Yep... remember Isabel wasn't supposed to hit the EC last year either.

[c5Camille]

well said....

[Stormchaser16]

LOL yup, Isabel was a fish storm right?

[Brent]

I agree Valkhorn. Am not seeing much if any northward motion right now.

*anxious for 5pm advisory*

[GalvestonDuck]

Well, somebody better fire up the grill because the crow is going to be served to one of you guys (or girls).

At least she offered halfway educated reasoning and explanation for why she thinks that and she didn't just say it would happen "because she said so."

It's more than I have to offer. All I can really give are gut feelings and amateur prognostications.

[WXBUFFJIM]

I would only be dreaming if Isabel was a fish. Anyway I think TD#2 is just holding it's own with convection co located with the center, which is very important for any kind of tropical development. With a forward motion of 21 mph, development is still a good possibility, but maybe not as quickly given the faster motion. But the key thing is the thunderstorms are co located with the center, which means possible deepening as we head on through time.

Jim

[USAwx1]

When the Almighty Rainstorm speaks we all must listen with our FULL attention, for she is the supreme authority on tropical meteorology.

LOL! LOL! LOL!

Yep... remember Isabel wasn't supposed to hit the EC last year either.

Yep it was forecasted to be a FISH by the almightly rainstorm, while the bottom feeding weenies such as myself expected it to become a major hurricane. Who would have ever thought--not only did it become a Cat 5 hurricane, it also headed right for her. huh? who would have ever thought we could have even come close to comparing her?

[Valkhorn]

Thanks guys. It'll be something to watch definately.

But in either case we may be VERY lucky with geography and the unusual trough this time of year.

[Lindaloo]

[Brent]

When the Almighty Rainstorm speaks we all must listen with our FULL attention, for she is the supreme authority on tropical meteorology.

LOL! LOL! LOL!

Yep... remember Isabel wasn't supposed to hit the EC last year either.

Yep it was forecasted to be a FISH by the almightly rainstorm, while the bottom feeding weenies such as myself expected it to become a major hurricane. Who would have ever thought--not only did it become a Cat 5 hurricane, it also headed right for her. huh? who would have ever thought we could have even come close to comparing her?

Yeah, and she lost power for like a week from the "fish" didn't she?

[rainstorm]

im not the only one thats gotten things wrong, but i am the only one who doesnt bring up others mistakes. looking at the sat pics, it seems to me td2 is making its own westerly shear and it is moving too fast into the death zone

[Stormchaser16]

And we may also be lucky as far as future storms go this year(once we really get some deep cape verde storms) with this pattern that shold keep most of the storms from impacting the EC

[GalvestonDuck]

It's certainly remaining on the southernmost edge of the model track.

[Brent]

im not the only one thats gotten things wrong, but i am the only one who doesnt bring up others mistakes. looking at the sat pics, it seems to me td2 is making its own westerly shear and it is moving too fast into the death zone

Blah, blah, blah.

Next.

The official NHC track BARELY takes it into the Caribbean, just the extreme NE part before crossing Puerto Rico.

[Matthew5]

Rainstorm this system has good outflow on the eastern quad. It is looking good with the convection firing up near the center. Just watch this thing!

[USAwx1]

Hey I'm not afraid to admit that I have busted plenty of times in the past. But for me, a busted forecast is BIG problem. For folks like you---it doesn't matter b/c you don't have any reputation to uphold or integrity to preserve.

[Stormchaser16]

True.....yes it is
But Id still expect the frontal boundary to come and pick it up day 4/5. The storm should also begin to gain lattitude as it develops.

[Agua]

Central America or fish would be great by me. Just keep that stinkin' thing away from the Gulf.

[USAwx1]

I've been watching the VIS and Infared loops of TD2 for a while now, and I can say it's really been holding itself together well.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

A look at the Visible look shows some neat things. First a LLC isn't obvious, but it is apparent that it exists once one looks a little deeper. Second, it appears to me that this wave is still moving due West, and it has been moving due West for the past day or two.

This does have me concerned since any further movement west would put the forecast track more and more south and more and more west. The trough will be very strong coming through the eastern US in the next few days (maybe even record lows here in a few days!) so if anything has a chance of picking it up, this trough could.

The two major things to look for however are primarily how much TD2 (or perhaps Bonnie by tomorrow) can wind up, and where it does start heading north.

If it makes it too far west when it turns north, it will be shredded by Hispaniola. If it turns early, it could slip through a gap in one of the islands and not be as distroyed. Even if it slams PR it'll be weakened a bit.

I still however think there is the very real chance (however slim) that it could miss the trough completely and keep heading due west. If this is the case it could keep going and hit central America. Yet, to me that's a 5% chance or less, but still possible.

The bottom line - TD2 is a very low latitude storm, so if any system has a chance of missing a trough this is it. It is wierd, in a wierd ironic way though, that a trough THIS STRONG is forecast for the eastern CONUS.

If we have Bonnie, we may be very lucky we have such an unusual trough at an unusual time of the year - and this wierd twist of fate could be our chance to catch our breath from Alex.

What do you guys think?

Now this is a good post. Rainstorm should take some notes!

[Stormchaser16]

I dont see any problem right now to the GOM. If it slips south then yea, itll head right for Central America, i cant see the GOM as a possibility right now.