Bonnie Advisories

Scott_inVA · #501 Postby **Scott_inVA** » Tue Aug 03, 2004 4:54 pm

Alex has recurved so we'll now run maps for Bye-Bye-Bonnie :wink:

Link below

Website · #502 Postby **Brent** » Tue Aug 03, 2004 4:57 pm

msbee wrote:Brent
It does NOT need to slow down
it needs to hurry up and pass us in the islands quickly
Please consider us when you say thnigs like that
thanks!

Sorry.

I'll rephrase it...

slow down after it passes the islands.

23 mph is insane though.

Derek Ortt · #503 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Tue Aug 03, 2004 5:10 pm

Hispaniola, then hasta la vista baby!

Website · #504 Postby **Brent** » Tue Aug 03, 2004 5:13 pm

Typhoon_Willie wrote:1979 Hurricane David did make it across Hispaniola. It did get shredded, but did reclaim a bit strength before hitting Fla...

What I meant was if it's weak(TD or a TS) it won't make it going DIRECTLY across the island. As is stands now, looks like it'll just clip the Eastern portion. Georges made it in 1998, but got tore up pretty badly. It was a Strong Category 2 when it first hit the DR and was barely a Cat 1 when it exited Haiti 12-18 hours later.

chadtm80 · #505 Postby **chadtm80** » Tue Aug 03, 2004 5:31 pm

lilbump3000 · #506 Postby **lilbump3000** » Tue Aug 03, 2004 5:32 pm

Nice map.

Derek Ortt · #507 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Tue Aug 03, 2004 5:34 pm

the models tend to recurve these storms too early, though if the pattern is correct, anything north of 5 will be recurving, but possibly farther west then guidance indicates due to the fast motion

#508 Postby **Air Force Met** » Tue Aug 03, 2004 5:40 pm

USAwx1 wrote:Hey I'm not afraid to admit that I have busted plenty of times in the past. But for me, a busted forecast is BIG problem. For folks like you---it doesn't matter b/c you don't have any reputation to uphold or integrity to preserve.

...AND YOU WON'T GET FIRED OR SUED BECAUSE OF IT!

rainstorm · #509 Postby **rainstorm** » Tue Aug 03, 2004 5:42 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
USAwx1 wrote:Hey I'm not afraid to admit that I have busted plenty of times in the past. But for me, a busted forecast is BIG problem. For folks like you---it doesn't matter b/c you don't have any reputation to uphold or integrity to preserve.

...AND YOU WON'T GET FIRED OR SUED BECAUSE OF IT!

i think you are forgetting this is a message board. have fun!!

MortisFL · #510 Postby **MortisFL** » Tue Aug 03, 2004 5:42 pm

Rainband · #511 Postby **Rainband** » Tue Aug 03, 2004 5:45 pm

Good Point Derek, Thanks

#512 Postby **Air Force Met** » Tue Aug 03, 2004 5:51 pm

rainstorm wrote:
i think you are forgetting this is a message board. have fun!!

If it is just a message baord...then we should be talking about football. It's not JUST a message board. People come here to learn and discuss the weather...and while it is fun...it can also be serious. I was just adding that there are those of us who don't have the luxury to be wrong and shrug it off. If you want this just to be about having fun...then all of us who do this for a living and come here to try and educate should leave...if its all about fun and nothing else.

Personally..if it is just about fun and not the education as well...neither I nor any other professional met (or some of the very smart amatuers) are really needed here for any amount of wisdom. SO...if that's what you want...go for it. This wonderful place would then become like some other not so great places...but hey...they have fun.

It can be a free for all! YIPEEE!! :-)

Anonymous · #513 Postby **Anonymous** » Tue Aug 03, 2004 5:52 pm

Any possibillity of it turning north but then turning back west as strong High pressure builds in behind the trough? Andrew did that as did Floyd.
UKMET@144hrs

The Dark Knight · #514 Postby **The Dark Knight** » Tue Aug 03, 2004 5:55 pm

Very nice....

#515 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Aug 03, 2004 5:56 pm

Although most of the models are forecasting that the trough will be enough to make the system move more northward and then northeastward, I'm worry if this doesn't happen and the Bermuda High becomes stronger than the trough which will cause the system to move more toward the United States. At this time is early to say but lets hope the trough will be enough.

lilbump3000 · #516 Postby **lilbump3000** » Tue Aug 03, 2004 5:58 pm

I still say they are turning this system way to early. You can clearly see that this system is basicly moveing due west. But only time will tell.

#517 Postby **msbee** » Tue Aug 03, 2004 6:02 pm

very nice Chad
I especially like that the track missses me :lol:

Rainband · #518 Postby **Rainband** » Tue Aug 03, 2004 6:05 pm

Thanks for the Map..Great Job Bud!! :wink:

Hyperstorm · #519 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Tue Aug 03, 2004 6:07 pm

lilbump3000 wrote:I still say they are turning this system way to early. You can clearly see that this system is basicly moveing due west. But only time will tell.

BINGO! The system is still moving west, because IMO the system isn't well-stacked and doesn't appear to have a well-defined LLC to be pulled northward by UL winds. I'm afraid that if it stays rather weak as it is, it will continue further west and possibly blow away all forecasts making it to the W. Caribbean as a tropical wave.

#520 Postby **HurricaneQueen** » Tue Aug 03, 2004 6:08 pm

Chad:

I hope you are right and that it misses most of the islands and the US coast! Barbara, we'll be in SXM on the 21st for 2 weeks. Hoping for hurricane free weather!!!!

Lynn

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