Bonnie Advisories

[dixiebreeze]

Toss out the current tracks -- and batten down the Keys

[Brent]

If that center relocates farther south, the present tracking maps are already obsolete. This is far more likely to become a player somewhere around the Florida Keys and possibly even the GOM eventually.

It's also an indication to me that the NHC sees the center now(they couldn't earlier) and that's it's getting better organized.

[lilbump3000]

The center has also dropped south slightly from 13.6N at 5 to 13.5N at 8.

[Steve H.]

Well, it will make it more exciting to track. Heck, if these were all spinning fish, I wouldn't even log on

[Typhoon_Willie]

Yes that could be a possibility on down the road!

[Brent]

Toss out the current tracks -- and batten down the Keys

Probably won't be to the Keys for at least 3-4 days(maybe longer if it slows down).

[Guest]

Time will tell if this system has an impact on the CONUS. Until then, it's wait and see

That is the best way to put it. I for one will wait a little bit longer before i pass judgement as to whether this will affect the conus or not.

[Weatherboy1]

I posted a couple hours ago that late-day visible imagery seemed to indicate an LLC was forming near the southern burst of deep convection (which has since faded a bit), and heading almost due W. Guess after a few years of amateur 'cane hunting and countless hours spent watching the tropics paid off! Seriously, though, as Vortex mentioned, this could have an impact on the eventual track. But overall, the system doesn't look too well-organized to me this evening and it's heading into the "dead zone" in the SE Caribbean. Over the past few seasons, we've seen any number of storms in the same region, travelling fast like TD2, fizzle out (Lili and Isadore in 2002, Chantal in 2001, etc. -- though they eventually reformed further west and turned into respectable systems). The same could happen here.

Bottom line -- until TD2 gains strength, organization, and latitude, she may just fly apart. IF she doesn't, however, and stays on her current west heading for more than 24 hours, the track forecast down the road is definitely subject to change.

[corpusbreeze]

The further south and forward speed really leads me to belive the trough will have small effect on td2 other than pull it slightly north and then the bermuda high will start to build back in. I think Jamica will have a major threat in 3 days.

[Derek Ortt]

not really. The trough will catch anything north of 5

[kevin]

Coldfront (Tom) that's because we have different situations with storms. Some are in unfavorable envrionments and will be better if they move into favorable environments. Some are moving too fast to maintain their low level centers, and basically lose themselves. Two different situations unrelated to each other.

Hope that helps.

[weatherlover427]

Just because S2K says it doesn't mean it will happen. The OFFICIAL track is that of the NHC and nothing else.

Yes we do have quite a few seasoned mets here and I do give them their proper credit. However; they aren't NHC people (as far as I know) and so I can't properly say "ok Storm2K says it will go due north above the Haiti / DR country line; so that is what for sure will happen; no doubt about it."

Mind you that that point is still a few days away (at the rate that the system is moving) so anything could change.

[Brent]

Just because S2K says it doesn't mean it will happen. The OFFICIAL track is that of the NHC and nothing else.

Yes we do have quite a few seasoned mets here and I do give them their proper credit. However; they aren't NHC people (as far as I know) and so I can't properly say "ok Storm2K says it will go due north above the Haiti / DR country line; so that is what for sure will happen; no doubt about it."

Mind you that that point is still a few days away (at the rate that the system is moving) so anything could change.

I wasn't implying that. The S2K is track is almost identical to the NHC track. I was saying IF that track happens it'll go out to sea. I didn't say it WOULD.

[corpusbreeze]

The trough is not strong enough and TD2 not organized enough to be caught. Besides the current southern ridge could hold.

[weatherlover427]

I have to admit I didn't look at the NHC TD2 track. I am in the wrong on that.

With that said; yes you are right in saying that IF it happens it would go out to sea.

But we all must remember that (as was the case with Alex just within the past 24-48 hours); forecasting the behavior of hurricanes is a very erratic science.

[Air Force Met]

I'm still not so sure this thing is closed off...its moving too fast. I have no doubt if it will lose 5 kts of speed it'll close off...but right now...I think it would be hard to close off the circulation. If it is closed...it's barely closed. Of course...a system like this moving at this speed can be a tropical storm with very little to speak of on the south side...like Debbie was a few years ago.

[HalloweenGale]

OOOOH!!!! I want this to hit Nantucket, so i can fly it!

[PTrackerLA]

Can't wait for the hurricane hunters!

[Hurricanehink]

Personally, I think it will dissipate sometime within the next day or so, and recon will not find a center. I don't think it will regenerate, either.

[Derek Ortt]

that trough will catch even a low-level disturbance if it is as strong as forecast