Looks like an open wave

[cycloneye]

IT is not a circular ball of convection something that you would like to see in a TD or a TS but it looks somewhat streched and the BIG question where is the center to the south,more to the north or there is any?Also some SW shear appears in the caribbean if you look closely so I think Bonnie will have to wait a little longer unless a rapid developing phase occurs.

[chadtm80]

NHC said could me reforming south.. So we shall see

[Brent]

*can't wait for recon*

[Air Force Met]

I just said the same thing in another post. If it will slow down it would certainly be closed...but because of its forward speed it very well may be open on the south side.

If recon were in there now...it would be about 50/50 that they would find a vortex rather than just an area of light and variable winds.

[Nimbus]

It seems to be catching up to the shear quite rapidly. Probably why some of the models dissipate the storm. Remnants could reform further north if that were the case.

[HURAKAN]

That's why it will have been necessary before taking any type of actions sending a RECON plane to see if the system has or not a surface circulation. Because maybe the RECON goes tomorrow and finds that the "TD" had degenerate into an open tropical wave, which then make us believe the system was not a TD after all. A good example was "TD #9 ", they upgraded the impressive looking tropical wave to TD status because a ship said that they recorded a west wind. Then overnight the system almost desintegrated and when the RECON plane the day after investigated the system it had degenerated into an open wave.

[cycloneye]

And that may happen tommorow morning Sandy.

[Derek Ortt]

A bad ship report led to TD 9 being classified. In fact, the system was better organized the next day according to sat estimates, but recon found a wave. In fact, the NHC discussion said it was much better organized until recon set the record straight

[HURAKAN]

Dvorak estimates says 35 mph:

03/2345 UTC 13.8N 57.0W T2.0/2.0 02

[MGC]

I am not convience this system is a depression. Recon will set us straight.....MGC

[caneman]

MAn that shear looks ferocious in the Eastern Carib. Anyone have shear maps they can post.

[Thunder44]

Quickscat taken earlier this evening on the descending pass doesn't show a closed surface circulation.

http://manati.wwb.noaa.gov/storm_at_ima ... _at_1.html

But by the time recon gets in their tomorrow morning it may have one then, if it doesn't have one now.

[rainstorm]

i thought i saw shear, part of it is self induced from its race horse speed. i think it will not develop at all now. a slight possibility in the west carib.

[HURAKAN]

[Kennethb]

I believe we had a similiar system last year in the same area. Looked impressive on satellite, even in the dead zone of the Carribean and just fell apart.

Though it looks like more convection is firing up. Every system is different.

As far as the trough and its effects, we are in a mid September weather pattern in early August. Another front is progged to move through here in Baton Rouge with lows Saturday morning in the upper 60's. The third front in four weeks. Models probably sense the September weather patterns.

Lets see what the planes say tomorrow.

[PuertoRicoLibre]

I agree it is probably a wave now. It is going so fast and on top of it that SW shear. Where the hell did that come from? All those models and maps. It was not supposed to be there! But then again neither was the system, so go figure.

Then again, didn't Hortense go from TD to open wave to Category 1 Hurricane in 24 hours? Ah yes, but Hortese slowed down to 8 mph...

[cycloneye]

I agree it is probably a wave now. It is going so fast and on top of it that SW shear. Where the hell did that come from? All those models and maps. It was not supposed to be there! But then again neither was the system, so go figure.

Then again, didn't Hortense go from TD to open wave to Category 1 Hurricane in 24 hours? Ah yes, but Hortese slowed down to 8 mph...

Yeah Hortense was a very different animal compared with this system as conditions where very diferent at that time in september of 1996 and it was crawling.

[weatherfan]

Horntence was also the one that tranform it self into a noreaster when it went up the eastern sea board and brought a nastey and chilly rainey and damp cloudey condtions to the middle Alantic and Northeast.

[The_Cycloman_PR]

Very interesting the last discussion about the TD by the NHC.

They don't even know IF THERE IS a LLC!
How patetic this TD or should I say this Strong Tropical Wave have become...
000
WTNT42 KNHC 040259
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE AUG 03 2004

DIFFICULTY REMAINS IN DETERMINING THE CENTER POSITION OF THE
DEPRESSION. MICROWAVE DATA OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS SUGGESTS THAT THE
LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTER MAY BE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE FIXES HAVE BEEN BEEN INDICATING. THE
ADVISORY POSITION IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK POSITIONS AND THE MICROWAVE POSITIONS...AND CLOSE TO WHERE
THE LATEST BURST OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN OCCURRING. AS MENTIONED IN
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...IF THERE IS A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION
...THEN IT IS LIKELY A VERY SMALL AND TIGHT CIRCULATION AS
SUGGESTED BY THE WEAK WINDS BEING REPORTED AT NEARBY BARBADOS. A
RECON FLIGHT WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD GIVE US SOME ANSWERS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 30 KT BASED ON CONSECUTIVE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT AND 30 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB...RESPECTIVELY...AND SOME 25 TO NEAR 30 KT UNCONTAMINATED WIND
SPEEDS IN A 03/2208Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/19...BUT THE CYCLONE MAY BE
MOVING CLOSER TO 270 DEGREES. HOWEVER...THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED DEEP-LAYER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND AS FAR SOUTH AS FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. THIS
SHOULD EFFECTIVELY ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA AND GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD BY 36 HOURS...AND THEN
NORTHWARD BY 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS BASICALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORIES AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND SHIPS INTENSITY
MODELS...WHICH BRING THE CYCLONE UP TO 51 KT AND 57 KT IN 48 HOURS
...RESPECTIVELY...WHEN THE CYCLONE IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

GIVEN THE RELATIVELY FAST FORWARD SPEED OF THE DEPRESSION...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION MAY NOT EXIST.
HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS CAN STILL OCCUR AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 1000 FEET.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/0300Z 13.6N 58.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 04/1200Z 14.2N 61.1W 35 KT
24HR VT 05/0000Z 15.3N 64.3W 40 KT
36HR VT 05/1200Z 16.7N 67.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 06/0000Z 18.3N 69.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 07/0000Z 22.0N 71.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 08/0000Z 27.0N 70.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 09/0000Z 30.5N 70.0W 70 KT

[cycloneye]

Like last night I stand this morning by what I said about this being an open wave and my opinion has been reinforced by recon and surface observations this morning.