Bonnie Advisories

[rainstorm]

i think dissipation has occured

[canes04]

Look for rapid development in the next 12-24hrs.
Once she slows down a bit, IT'S ON!!!

[yoda]

We shall see, we shall see.

[HURAKAN]

[Anonymous]

Looks like #2 models are trending further west.... And now Bam turns the system NNW only to recurve it WNW again around 22N/71W

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl022004forecast.html


am continuing updates, even though I should be discontinuing them at the present time from a scientific vantage point

[NorthGaWeather]

I really don't think this is an open wave. Give her some time to re-organize.

[Brent]

Winds will likely be up to 35 at 11pm.

[Brent]

I really don't think this is an open wave. Give her some time to re-organize.

I don't think so either. I'm eager for the 11pm advisory package.

[Derek Ortt]

All of the available data suggests that it is. Even the ship reports that I saw today at HRD weren't all that impressive. In fact, the system may have had more of a circulation then as there were NE/SE winds

[Rainband]

Your forecast looks a little safe derek 30knts through the period?? Why don't you just dissapate it??

[NorthGaWeather]

All of the available data suggests that it is. Even the ship reports that I saw today at HRD weren't all that impressive. In fact, the system may have had more of a circulation then as there were NE/SE winds

I quess we'll see.

[Derek Ortt]

To Brent: I dont care what the 11 p.m. says. This is the 11 p.m. that I live and die by (as do all of my friends in Miami)

To rainband: Because I made this forecast without growing a pair (if offensive, please edit). I just dont want to get caught. Plus, there still are strong winds on the north side and with the threat of TS gusts and I dont want to send the wrong signal that the threat is gone

[Rainband]

To Brent: I dont care what the 11 p.m. says. This is the 11 p.m. that I live and die by (as do all of my friends in Miami)

To rainband: Because I made this forecast without growing a pair (if offensive, please edit). I just dont want to get caught. Plus, there still are strong winds on the north side and with the threat of TS gusts and I dont want to send the wrong signal that the threat is gone

Not offensive, you answred my question. BTW I respect your professional ability and views. It was just a question

[Brent]

Derek, I didn't say you are wrong. I just like to see all the information first before saying anything. Steve Lyons just said there are several mid-level vorticies which just leaves the question open of is there a closed surface circulation.

[Derek Ortt]

Its just that I dont make life and death decisions by anything except what we say. My life is in my own hands (or that of the forecasters I have)

[Brent]

I think it'll become a hurricane eventually. If it does open to a wave, I expect it to redevelop.

[stormie_skies]

It may be moving too fast to effectively close off a center now .... but even if it is an open wave or becomes one, I would still keep an eye on it ... Im sure if it slowed down a little it would close up in no time.

[Derek Ortt]

as an fyi, the update is now available as well

[HalloweenGale]

Bonnie here we come!