The 1st TC of the Season rule -- what does ALEX mean??

[Guest]

The development of ALEX is SIGNIFICANT in a couple of ways. First the last several years we have seen a lack of TC development in the MDR -- Main development region of the Atlantic Basin. While there have been many Cape Verde systems over the past 5 years... MOST have reached Hurricane strength NORTH of 20 degrees Latitude and those Tropical wave and TDs that have stayed in the MDR have been killed by the strong wind shear. The fact that Alex formed North of the MDR is indicative that these trends may still be a factor this hurricane season.

Second -- the First tropical cyclone of the season be it a storm or Hurricane -- is often a indicator of where a significant cluster of activity is going to be. This rule if it is valid does not mean that will be no other areas of activity... To see how this rule works


http://www.wxrisk.com/hurricane/1stTCpath/1stTC.htm

Experienced tropical meteorologists and forecasters have often made comment or reference to a rule or Concept that seems to have some basis is hurricane climatology.. but seems hard to explain given the current understanding of dynamically and physical meteorology.

I am referring to this concept as the "FIRST TC OF THE SEASON's RULE" because I have not heard any name given to this idea before. If there is one for it... then let me know.

This is the way the Rule or concept seems to work: The first tropical cyclone of the season is a season wide indicator of where either A) MOST of the TC activity is going to be or B) a Cluster of where there will be significant TC activity.

Lets take a look at the 1996 ATLANTIC BASIN TC SEASON
Arthur was the 1st TC of the seasin that formed right off the SE coast and was originally a very early season TW from the Cape Verde area. It has been argued that Arthur was a "sign" that 1996 was going to be a very active East coast year.
[IMG] http://www.wxrisk.com/hurricane/1stTCpath/arthur96.gif
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Indeed it was.










[IMG]http://www.wxrisk.com/hurricane/1stTCpath/track97.gif
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[KatDaddy]

Well DT all most all the tracking charts show the NE GOM being safe this season. With Joe B and others point at TX and FLA being the most likely areas for a landfall I agree with you more. Historical records with current weather patterns say it all and I see no end to the E US trough

[weatherfan]

Very good post yes 96 was a very active year for the east coast.As the mean trough that year was west of the apperlations.This year is something like what we saw in 2003 and also 95 where we had a predomant trough rige trough pattern.which help keep most of the tropica systems away from the east coast.But as you said it is diffentey possable.That if the trough did break down temperely or dig west of the apperlations.Then that could if timing is right.Allow one or two to hit the southeast/East coast.even those most would be steered away.And we must all remember that it only takes one to make any giving season a remember one.Hurricane Andew in 92 is a good example of that and isable of last years is another.