LLC Looks to Be Established to the South

#1 Postby **MWatkins** » Wed Aug 04, 2004 12:37 am

Once again...this is speculative...IR4 imagery is hard to read. But based on the pattern...it sure looks like thunderstorm activity is bursting around a tight low center...further to the south than was thought earlier.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Recon will be there in about 6.5 hours. I would NOT write off TD2 yet.

MW

Matthew5 · #2 Postby **Matthew5** » Wed Aug 04, 2004 12:43 am

I pretty much agree that a new LLCC is forming to the south. But there is not alot of information at this time.

#3 Postby **shortwave** » Wed Aug 04, 2004 12:43 am

It defintley looks to be popping a bit more and also a little bit of a slow down.
mike do you happen to know what happened to ir channel 2 on the goes #2 floater? I'm guessing the color enhancement has gone bad.. oh well.

Matthew5 · #4 Postby **Matthew5** » Wed Aug 04, 2004 12:44 am

Mw can you tell if its slowly down? If so this might be organizing.

Wnghs2007 · #5 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Wed Aug 04, 2004 12:52 am

Actually according to the latest update at 2 Am the speed this TD is traveling is up from 22 MPh to 23 Mph so it is actually speeding up. If you can believe that.

NorthGaWeather · #6 Postby **NorthGaWeather** » Wed Aug 04, 2004 12:53 am

They have it Barely NNW of Barbados.

Wnghs2007 · #7 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Wed Aug 04, 2004 12:54 am

NorthGaWeather wrote:They have it Barely NNW of Barbados.

By 45 Miles to the NNW of Barbados.

#8 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Wed Aug 04, 2004 12:54 am

Hi Mike. TD 2 really does seem to be consolidating in these early morning hours. Much more impressive than Tues. evening. And definitely farther south in organization.

#9 Postby **MWatkins** » Wed Aug 04, 2004 12:58 am

FYI...and I am going to bed right now...the UKMET guidance is much further west than it was before before dissipating the system...

http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2c ... wtnt80.txt

IF...IF recon finds a LLC in the morning...then well...it could be an intersting couple of days...

Good night...

MW

SwampDawg · #10 Postby **SwampDawg** » Wed Aug 04, 2004 1:07 am

It will definitely be interesting as to what the Recon will find today....we'll just keep watching. I would look for more west than north in the short term.

http://www.kmrc1430.com

ColdFront77 · #11 Postby **ColdFront77** » Wed Aug 04, 2004 1:08 am

Wnghs2007 wrote:Actually according to the latest update at 2 Am the speed this TD is traveling is up from 22 MPh to 23 Mph so it is actually speeding up. If you can believe that.

22 mph to 23 mph is only a 4.35% increase. Such an extremely small increase in forward speed to say for sure it's a trend.

NorthGaWeather · #12 Postby **NorthGaWeather** » Wed Aug 04, 2004 1:20 am

Winds South at 20 MPH at Barbados. Lines up with NHC estimated center.

NorthGaWeather · #13 Postby **NorthGaWeather** » Wed Aug 04, 2004 1:55 am

Martinique reports NE winds at 10. Still South at Barbados.

Anonymous · #14 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Aug 04, 2004 2:00 am

At them moment the blob is right over Barbados, so I assume the center is either at or near the island. It has reoraginzed pretty well, as a cdo seems to be evident now instead of patches of thunderstorms (but itll prolly fade off just like it did yesterday).

As for it getting picked up, I dont think its likely now. Tom evening the front is scheduled to hit the MIS/ARK border and near the upper eastern seaboard. By this time, the TD (prolly Bonnie tom) will be well into the eastern caribbean. The front is supposed to make it to the gulf coast by thursday (I believe), and by that time the storm will prolly be getting close to jamaica (As in, past puerto rice). IF the trough does clear the gulf coast and sit maybe 100 miles of of the coast, then 'Bonnie' should be getting recurved, near or past Jamaica. If this is the case then Florida will get hit. Im also assuming that the storm maintains its current speed and the trough maintains its current speed, with no deviations in both. I believe that the trough will have to clear the gulf coast and makes its way FAR the GOM to pick this one up, due to its new southern center and fast westward movement. Also, the trough has to be as strong as predicted (which I dont think it will). I just think the system has gone to far south and is moving to fast for the trough to catch it (At least catch it before its too late for the US). Hopefully im wrong.

#15 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Aug 04, 2004 5:25 am

Interesting to say that we are in the year 2004 and we are still unable to say whether a tropical wave has a surface circulation or not without using the RECON plane.

Hyperstorm · #16 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Wed Aug 04, 2004 5:36 am

HURAKAN wrote:Interesting to say that we are in the year 2004 and we are still unable to say whether a tropical wave has a surface circulation or not without using the RECON plane.

Actually we're not all that bad as you think. In recent years, quickscat passes have been helpful in determining whether or not the system does have a LLC. In the current case with "TD 2", quickscat doesn't even show a hint of a circulation. Of course, the MOST effective way of knowing is hands-on...

#17 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Aug 04, 2004 5:55 am

The convection appears to be more consolidated, but you cannot estimate a surface circulation by looking at the tops of the clouds with IR satellite. The only way is by looking at a surface analysis (or recon). Let me plot a sfc chart and post an image here for you. Here you go. I looked at a sfc anal loop from 00z-10Z and all winds through the islands were easterly. Absolutely no evidence of an LLC:

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/sfcanal.gif">

LLC Looks to Be Established to the South

LLC Looks to Be Established to the South

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