Bonnie Advisories

[TS Zack]

There may have not been a LLC to begin with. I don't think this thing isnt doing anything, still well-developed and going to stick around. The GFDL does weaken the system in the Eastern Caribbean but strengthens it rapidly. I don't know if that will be the case.

[ColdFront77]

Coldfront (Tom) that's because we have different situations with storms. Some are in unfavorable envrionments and will be better if they move into favorable environments. Some are moving too fast to maintain their low level centers, and basically lose themselves. Two different situations unrelated to each other.

Hope that helps.

Nothing to help me with.

I was replying to what was said in the thread up to that point.

[MortisFL]

There's a big cluster of t-storms that are merging towards the southern islands. If this turns into the center, it will be 100 miles or more south of where the GFDL estimated it to be.

[MWatkins]

Yep...good point....looks like we were posting the same tought at the same time.

MW

[TS Zack]

Could make a big difference in the track too.

[NorthGaWeather]

The track looks to be further South as y'all have pointed out. The thunderstorms have organized around what appears to be the center.

[NorthGaWeather]

Also TD two appears to have made a wobble to the WSW.

[TS Zack]

08 04 1:00 am ESE 19.0 - - - - - 08 04 12:00 am E 20.0 -
08 03 11:00 pm E 21.0 - 7.5 6 - - 78.4 - - -
08 03 10:00 pm ENE 21.0 - 6.6 6 - - - -
08 03 8:00 pm NE 19.0

A buoy report shows their is some sort of surface circulation. Just got to see if it is closed.

[Thunder44]

They should be there by 8am today.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?

[Matthew5]

It has developed a good area of deep convection near its said center. To me it appears it is a MLC(Mid level cirulation) But some of the obs off on some of the islands show winds that could show a surface cirulation. It is any ones guest what the recon will find!


04/0545 UTC 13.5N 58.8W T2.5/2.5 O2

[Hyperstorm]

I still say they are turning this system way to early. You can clearly see that this system is basicly moveing due west. But only time will tell.

BINGO! The system is still moving west, because IMO the system isn't well-stacked and doesn't appear to have a well-defined LLC to be pulled northward by UL winds. I'm afraid that if it stays rather weak as it is, it will continue further west and possibly blow away all forecasts making it to the W. Caribbean as a tropical wave.

This is exactly what they mentioned as a possible scenario this morning in the Discussion. I still think this is no more than a VIGOROUS tropical wave. 3 factors have contributed to the slow demise of the system: Initially dry air, yesterday the fast forward speed, today it looks like wind shear could be a problem. Sorry folks, no development likely in the near future....

[ColdFront77]

Many people see this sort of turn and figure it is going out to sea.

If that track verifies, it WILL go out to sea.

Of course if that track verifies it will go out to sea. I am saying that systems do move more westward after turning
to the WNW, NW, NNW and/or N. Additionally, we know models are used for guidance and can change quite a bit.

[Guest]

The last picture has TD2 going more NW, but the latest modesl reflect a more southern westerly track. Correct or no?

[Anonymous]

The models continue to shift wide left and NHC track is now well to the right of the consensus agreeing with only GooFDLe. IF[/u] we have a system found by recon (impressive on satellite) or a closed circulation develops later, the conus may have to deal with this storm... Even UKMET says so.

[Brent]

The weaker it stays the farther south and west it will go.

If it even holds together.

[jlauderdal]

The models continue to shift wide left and NHC track is now well to the right of the consensus agreeing with only GooFDLe. IF[/u] we have a system found by recon (impressive on satellite) or a closed circulation develops later, the conus may have to deal with this storm... Even UKMET says so.

Like I always say...the best place to be is a direct hit on a model run 5 days out because your chances of getting hit are rather slim. How many times has south florida been in the bullseye the last 5 years and how many times has it been hit.

[Guest]

Even if this sucker (TD2) survives and it heads west, it has a lot of warm water to regen.

[yoda]

The models continue to shift wide left and NHC track is now well to the right of the consensus agreeing with only GooFDLe. IF[/u] we have a system found by recon (impressive on satellite) or a closed circulation develops later, the conus may have to deal with this storm... Even UKMET says so.

Like I always say...the best place to be is a direct hit on a model run 5 days out because your chances of getting hit are rather slim. How many times has south florida been in the bullseye the last 5 years and how many times has it been hit.

True.. True. But we will have to see...

[Nimbus]

There are two players here. The first was an upper level feature that was forecast two shear and steer TD2 north over PR, DR. Since TD2 seems to be organizing further south it may miss the first feature (albeit suffering some shear).

If TD2 makes it as far west as Jamaica then the timing and position of a digging trough will be the determining facter for a GOM forecast. This trough could dig all the way to Panama we don't know yet.

[Guest]

Sounds plausible, but I have never heard of a mama trough digging so far down south. Has anyone ever heard of sucha anamoly?