Going out on a HUGE limb...

[frederic79]

but here's a thought. All the models are unanimous in turning TD2 north near 70W over Hispaniola. But, all the models have givenTD2 a more poleward heading that the actual 270 shown since it became a TD. Also, TD2 may even be weaker than the models are using to initialize their plots (recon will tell tomorrow).

Timing is everything and this is what I want to know: If TD2 remains relatively weak and continues to race westward, could it miss the trough or respond later turning it more poleward south of Cuba instead Hispaniola. The latest plot has shifted west already, I assume due to the persistant westward motion TD2 currently has. Could South Florida be at risk here?

Also, regardless of the forecast strength of the cold front, climotology still accounts for something and the duration of the trough's presence may be an issue to question.

[Stormchaser16]

Good post, and good topic for discussion here. I think we should begin to see soon a more WNW track(seems the fixes on the center are revealing this) because of a weakness in the western atlantic ridge. YES the front COULD miss it, but very unlikely IMO, as it seems the models are content on positiong TD2 in a favorable area to be picked up by the front. I will say though, the longer it takes it to begin a WNW jog, the closer it will reach before turning in response to the frontal boundary.

[frederic79]

Last night's models had fish written all over them. Not this morning. WOW!
3 of 5 take it towards the GOM. Of course, it has to survive and slow down to strengthen. Interesting...

[vbhoutex]

this could turn out to be a very interesting and difficult system to forecast IMO. It is opening/has opened up into an wave again and thus will more than likely continue further West than previously expected. One of the questions that remains is will it survive the speed it is going and the shear it will run into? If it does then we may have a player once it gets past the infamous Carribean "zone of death". Intersting situation to say the least!! does this have "Claudette" written on it?(And I am not talking about the name!!!). Similarities are starting become apparent. And I am not in anyway inferring the final track with that post either. We have to have a viable system first!!

[Rainband]

If it does survive..That trof may make things interesting and wet for the eastern GOM later in the period. I guess it's all about the timing. Personally I am sick of driving to work in RAIN

[Dean4Storms]

TD2 has continued on a more westerly track thus you could imply that it has been more of an open wave at the surface with a mid level circulation above it for most of the last day or two. With this in mind it is no wonder the models are off on it as they have been intializing on a closed surface circulation with more structure. This TW is above the surface and is caught in the Trades, unless a closed surface low develops real soon it will likely get too far westward to be pulled poleward and turned northward by the CONUS trough in time to send it out to sea, thus creating a possible threat to the GOM or Florida.

If it has not begun a good turn more NW by the time it is south of the eastern tip of the Dom. Rep. it will be a good possible threat to FL or GOM states.

[dixiebreeze]

I think there is still too much energy there for TD 2 to pack up its toys and go home. Possible new development a day or two away?