Upper Wind Forecast for Caribbean for Friday

[wxman57]

In case some of you are speculating that as a tropical wave, what's left of TD 2 may track west toward the Gulf and develop. Take a look at what lies ahead. Here's a 200mb wind forecast for Friday:

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/shear.gif">

[Brent]

Looks like shear, shear, and more shear to me.

[Tip]

Actually the CMISS shear tendency map shows decreasing shear just ahead of storm.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

[Hyperstorm]

Agree, as I said earlier, IF it can survive the extremely diabolic pattern in the E. and C. Caribbean, then it might have a chance in the W. Caribbean with a ridge of high pressure.....Doubt it.

[Brent]

Actually the CMISS shear tendency map shows decreasing shear just ahead of storm.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

I hope that happens, but no offense to you, I've seen NUMEROUS storms come into the Caribbean with shear expected to relax. It almost always gets pushed back until it's too late to develop.

[Jersey storm]

it is going north

[Guest]

Jersey, all the modesl are not reflecting a northern direction, but a westerly direction.

[ColdFront77]

I hope that happens, but no offense to you, I've seen NUMEROUS storms come into the Caribbean with shear expected to relax. It almost always gets pushed back until it's too late to develop.

Sure, then there are times that that occurs and then reverses just in time for development or even more of a decrease in upper level shear. Every single situation is unique even to the slightest degree.

[Dean4Storms]

One thing to mention here is that if the trough in the east does not amplify as much as some of the models are indicating then this shear would not be as strong as indicated above.

Alot of the future of TD2 rides on just how far south the trough gets down over Florida. If it doesn't make it down to central/south FL. TD2 has a fair chance. If it does make it down to south FL. TD2 is shredded wheat.

[caneman]

According to local Met the front is suppose to come thru here in Central Florida Friday night. Unbelievable - 3x since beginning of July and all rare occurances.

[ColdFront77]

Alot of the future of TD2 rides on just how far south the trough gets down over Florida. If it doesn't make it down to central/south FL. TD2 has a fair chance. If it does make it down to south FL. TD2 is shredded wheat.

Good point, Dean, however, there may be an in between set up to... the trough may get down to north/central FL or even central/south FL and the upper level wind shear could be just far enough away to not inhibit development or weaken the system that will has a good potential to exist when approaching the western Caribbean and/or United States.

Another, but less likely scenario would be the trough not getting the far down (far enough, because it shouldn't stay that far north with it being in the forecast like it is), and the wind shear covers a larger area along and ahead to the southeast of the trough.

[Nimbus]

Thanks for the shear tendancy map Tip. The 700-850 hPa steering wind analysis recently changed and is showing a high over Cuba? I have seen troughs dig quite far south late in the season but whatever develops from 91L looks like it will be steered south of Jamaica. Sorry about the "Panama sarcasm" but the trough that is now rolling down into Texas has a long way to dig.