Bonnie Advisories

[yoda]

ok ok.. back to the tropics now.. no more out of bounds talking...

[hurricanemike]

They dont have a clue:

"THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE WEST
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT BASICALLY IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST."

[Guest]

Hurricane, maybe they have too many amateurs working the models. hehehehe

[vbhoutex]

Hurricane, maybe they have too many amateurs working the models. hehehehe

Just what do you mean by that? There are quite a few VERY ACCOMPLISHED "amatuers" on this site who deserve just as much respect as the professionals we are so lucky to have as members. Many of those professionals would tell you that some of the "amatuers" on this site are more accomplished than some professinals and just because someone is an "amatuer" does not mean they deserve any less respect thatn the professionals.

Do you even undeerstand how the models work or what goes into them to generate the runs we are able to use in our forecasting?

[WilloughbyStormWatcher]

I dont disagree that it may eventually become something, however right now, you surely must agree there is little evidence of a closed LLC yes?

I agree with you, yes. It's obvious that's the case according to the NHC reports in which my information is based. I use the information they have gathered and forumlate my own theories on what the weather is going to do next.

Sometimes it's the same as their forecasts and sometimes it's not. My theories at this time are in line with the NHC, I just went a little farther in my theories/forecast, that's all.

[Guest]

VB, if you FAILED to notice "hehehehe" I was joking. I think you took my message in a sensitive manner. I understand the differences and I never once attacked anyones models, so were you got that from I have no idea. The issue never came up about models. Why are you discussing models?

[WilloughbyStormWatcher]

Anyone who blindly repeats what someone else tells him is definately not a scientist. A scientist examines the data to arrive at a conclusion. A parrot just repeats what he is told

When I have the ability to pull my own data from my own satellites and recon planes, I will be able to say it was my data and I formulated my own forecasts based on said information.

Unfortunately, I can only get my information from other sources (NOAA in this case) and then forumulate my own theories on what the storms will do next.

I DO NOT repeat what is written, if anything, I will agree with their forecasts but I do look at the data that has been collected, that is available to me online and then make my forecasts based on that data, whether or not it matches that of the NOAA.

[vbhoutex]

Uh, you mentioned models in your post, hehehe notwithstanding.

[Guest]

I see the error of my ways. Like Ronald reagan once said "All that I have done must be forgotten, as I have forgotten many things I have done."

[Lindaloo]

That is what makes each individual person unique.

[ColdFront77]

Sounds plausible, but I have never heard of a mama trough digging so far down south. Has anyone ever heard of sucha anamoly?

There was one a couple of weeks ago that got about as far south as this one is expected to.

They are certainly rare for July and August, but some years there are more than average. I am not sure what "average" is; perhaps close to 0 (a fraction between 0 and 1... Anyone?

[Valkhorn]

It seems to me that TD2 - or the tropical wave that it consists of - has had persistent convection for the past 48 hours.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

An infared loop shows that the convection is very heavy, very persistent, and so that's basically telling us that a LLC reorganizing is only a matter of time. I think it will happen if the convection persists, and I think it's fairly silly to write off this wave/TD like half the people on this board are doing.

I can understand writing it off if it completely fizzled out, but the convection is still there! It hasn't even faded out, and has been consistent for two days.

The NHC didn't upgrade this to a TD without a reason, and it probably had a defined LLC a day ago. It may not now, but when a system is in its formative stages LLCs can come and go like clockwork. Remember, two of the primary ingredients for a tropical system to organize are:

1) Persistent convection
2) Favorable environment

A LLC is only a requirement for defining a tropical cyclone from a tropical wave. LLCs can also easily develop and re-develop when you have persistent convection and a favorable environment.

I still think it's only a matter of time, and I am getting rather tired of people that are willing to write this off already when there are still ample thunderstorms and ample convection.

[Valkhorn]

Also, take a look at the visible loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

It really doesn't look that bad to me as far as a wave goes. Chances of this regenerating back into a full TD are fairly good IMO.

[Thunder44]

It's not about writing it off for future development. It's that the NHC usually is more conservative in their classification of tropical cyclones and their intensity. And it was a suprise that they still kept this a TD at 11am. There have been other systems that looked better than this but the NHC has more trouble classifying them. I think I'm glad anyway, that are still issuing advisories on this, because it will still bring attention to system instead of the media and other mets writing it off anymore because it's not an "official TD"

[Brent]

It defintely looks interesting. Maybe that's why the NHC is so reluctant to stop advisories on it. I'm noticing several spins on the satellite, whether they are at the surface remains to be seen. It needs to slow down though.

[ColdFront77]

Do we actually know why what became Claudette developed nicely moving 20 to 25 miles per hour when "she" was moving into and through the Caribbean Sea?

[Valkhorn]

It's not about writing it off for future development. It's that the NHC usually is more conservative in their classification of tropical cyclones and their intensity. And it was a suprise that they still kept this a TD at 11am. There have been other systems that looked better than this but the NHC has more trouble classifying them. I think I'm glad anyway, that are still issuing advisories on this, because it will still bring attention to system instead of the media and other mets writing it off anymore because it's not an "official TD"

That's a very good point too. We don't know what the future will bring with this wave either. Truthfully it could redevelop a LLC at any time, and so therefore it would be foolish for the NHC to let go of this thing like some on this board want it to do. If the LLC is gone for more than a day it should go back to an invest.

However, it's still looking pretty healthy for a wave to me.

[c5Camille]

because the "whole environment" was moving at the same speed...

kind of like staking cards while sitting in a winabego
doing 65 down the freeway

[Brent]

Do we actually know why what became Claudette developed nicely moving 20 to 25 miles per hour when "she" was moving into and through the Caribbean Sea?

When Claudette was classified at first, recon had BARELY closed off a center. In fact, they really really really didn't. It was a stretch. The reason they went ahead and upgraded was because it was producing tropical storm force winds. It took them 7 hours to find it as they were leaving as well, meaning it had likely just barely closed off while they were there.

[Valkhorn]

Good point, ColdFront77