Alex at 3:15 pm EDT and 8 PM EDT 8/4/04 ...

[Stormsfury]

showing a stadium-effect eye on visible satellite imagery ... I just saved the last GOES image (3:15 PM EDT - 1915 UTC 8/4/04) ... the symmetry of Hurricane Alex is better now than it has been in its entire life cycle, and a small part due to absolutely no land interference ... second, it's tucked in under another s/w ridge with outflow evident in all quadrants of the system ...

Interestingly enough, look west-southwest of Alex ... appears to have some small mid-level feature which seems to have diverted the strongest core of westerly winds further north away from the cyclone ...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Thunder44]

Yes, it looks like it could be Cat 3 hurricane now.

[ColdFront77]

Passing so "harmlessly close"/about 320 miles SSE of where I used to live.

[Brent]

Looks very good.

[Stormsfury]

I fully expect (should the intense structure of Alex remain for the 11 pm EDT update ... Alex will be our first major hurricane of the 2004 season ... T numbers have increased to 5.0 ... and again, a very compact storm, and I'm laying it on the line ... the storm structure indicates to me IMHO, a 125 mph CAT 3 hurricane ... (symmetrical aspects, stadium eyewall effect, and the rapid reorganization of the storm in a very short period of time (which Alex has done so on several occasions in its short lifespan ..)



Alex is traveling right along the Gulf Stream current and fairly close to the warm sliver (green area) east of the MA states ...



SST depth of 26ºC isotherms are also very sufficient (>140m deep)



And lastly, the high heat potential in that area where Alex is now ...

[USAwx1]

Upper level vertical Shear is only about 10KT over Alex right now and w/ its position over the gulf stream theres no wonder why it blew up once it was no longer interacting w/ land (as in the NC coast).

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF

But notice once north of about 45N latitude there is a belt of VERY strong upper level shear in association with the 90-110 KT 200H jet rounding the base of the trough at over Eastern Canada as noted on the 18z ETA analysis



Shear will eventually increase over Alex the next 24-36 hours as it transitions to an extra tropical system and then is absorbed by a system over the north Atlantic FRI. Still VERY close call for New England (Cape cod especially), SRN Nova Scotia, and eventually Newfoundland.

[Guest]