Bonnie Advisories

[dixiebreeze]

Still some concern. This excerpt from the 5 p.m. advisory:

An Air Force reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft
is scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow morning for signs
of regeneration.

[Bane]

Unless it slows down, it's finished.

[TS Zack]

R.I.P for a day or so! We will see this thing back to TD status in the upcoming days.

[Bane]

Okay, yes I am green as the jolly green giant, but what the hell is "eating crow."?

It's an old expression you say when you have to admit you were wrong, like having egg on your face.

[dixiebreeze]

the small dark spot of deepening convection:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

[lilbump3000]

Well again we seeing one of these waves that were upgraded to a depression just before the islands then it gets downgraded to a wave once it passes the islands. We seen this in 2002, 2003 i think it was in 2003 as well, now will this wave do what the other ones did develop into a hurricane then hit somewere on the gulf coast. Only time will tell, but like other people mentioned i dont think this thing is totally gone.

[Brent]

Lili hit Louisiana in 2002 as a weak Cat 2 after being a Cat 4 just 12 hours earlier. It started as a TD 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, strengthened to nearly a hurricane just west of the islands and then suddenly fell apart only to 12 hours after the last advisory was issued be regenerated SE of Jamaica.

I'm NOT saying TD 2 will do anything like that, although, I think it has a shot at regeneration if the shear relaxes, if it slows down, and if it avoids land.

[Bane]

It's east-west elongation is a problem, though.

[c5Camille]

that small dark spot is 100 miles infront of the
actual broad open center.... it's in advance...

[dixiebreeze]

This view better shows the deepening spot of convection -- which is, of course, on the western edge of the broad wave:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/WV/20.jpg

[Brent]

It needs to

A. consolidate(it's too spread out right now)
B. SLOW DOWN!!!
C. Avoid land
D. Shear needs to go away

I won't be at all surprised to see this regenerate. The blob is very impressive right now, but as I said it needs to consolidate. The stuff near the Windwards needs to go away.

As long as it is hanging around like it is now, I'm not dropping this.

[Brent]

5:30pm TWO:

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS DISCONTINUED ADVISORIES ON FORMER
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...LOCATED ABOUT 380 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. THE SYSTEM HAS DEGENERATED INTO A TROPICAL
WAVE AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY WESTWARD AT 23 MPH. HOWEVER...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS REASONABLY WELL ORGANIZED AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IF NECESSARY...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THURSDAY
MORNING FOR ANY SIGNS OF REGENERATION.

[Stormcenter]

The NHC is saying the wave is moving WNW. I personally don't see it. It looks due west to me. I also think this baby has the potential to be trouble down road to maybe Central America. I don't think it's going NW and then NE and finally it's WAY too early to even mention the GOM. IMO

[ColdFront77]

Claudette had no problem making it into the Gulf from the location former Tropical Depression #2 was in July 2003. Same goes with several other systems that moved into the Gulf in July and even June.

In any event, the potential exists for this system to make landfall along the U.S. coast just as much as it may go out to sea.

[Trader Ron]

They don't come back that often.

[rainstorm]

thats what i was saying, it created its own shear. also note the significance of a cane forming north of 30n from an ull. it may back up dt as to whether the cv season is active.

[WXBUFFJIM]

Great post DT. It's definitely not healthy at all with respect to a tropical system.

[kevin]

I expected this, and so did some other people. Others thought "obviously there is an LLC" but they did this on the basis of IR images. We've seen this happen too much.

Kevin Doctrine of Fast Moving Tropical Depressions:
-A tropical wave is not a depression if its moving fast unless recon has fixed it as such.-

[ColdFront77]

They don't come back that often.

Somewhat often, but this one even has more potential than that... the way it has been going; it's just the forward speed. The upper level winds aren't expected to stay too high ahead of the system or there wouldn't be any mention of Tropical Storm Bonnie.

[Trader Ron]

CF,

What does "somewhat often" mean? I will bet $1000 everytime that a depression becomes an "open wave" will not regenerate. That doesn't mean it can't happen.