QBO Falls Again

[donsutherland1]

In July, the QBO fell to 9.96, continuing its reversal that began in June. At this time, over the past 3 months, the QBO most closely resembles that of 2002:

Year.........May..........June.........July
2002........14.16.......13.26.......10.05
2004........12.97.......11.75.........9.96

In 2002, the QBO switched to east in December. However, at this point in time, I have little reason to change my initial thinking that the switch will likely occur in January or February 2005. As the above comparison shows, at this point in time, 2002's QBO was falling more quickly than that of 2004.

If the QBO fluctuates higher at any point over the next several months, that could signal an even more delayed transition to east.

For now, the new QBO number continues to point to a switch to east this coming winter. Consequently, it also serves to reinforce the 1969-70 analog that has been part of the larger discussion concerning possible analogs for the coming winter.

[yoda]

Hey Don, If the QBO switches to the East, does that mean that there is less of a chance of having a big snowy winter in the MA and NE? Because 1969-1970 wasn't real snowy in this area.

[donsutherland1]

Yoda,

It will depend on which analog ultimately prevails. There are a few QBO East winters that were very snowy for the DCA area. Two stand out in particular based on my expectation that the December-March QBO will probably come out somewhat below that of 2002-03 and almost certainly between the averages for those two winters:

December-March QBO Average:
1986-87: -11.5
2002-03: -1.7

1986-87: Moderate El Niño, East QBO throughout: 31.1" snowfall
2002-03: Fading El Niño (moderate in OND/weak JFM), Switched to East QBO in December: 40.4" snowfall

Also, the 1986-87 solar flux was somewhat lower but reasonably close to that which is likely this coming winter. However, a closer look at the factors behind possible analogs will determine whether or not 1986-87 proves viable even if some similarities are intriguing at this time.

[USAwx1]

2004 -4.84 2.61 5.45 10.46 12.97 11.75 9.96 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00

2002 4.64 8.00 9.32 14.03 14.16 13.26 10.05 10.60 8.90 7.66 4.46 -0.50
2003 -1.39 -1.44 -3.30 -8.57 -13.94 -18.01 -22.99 -24.64 -22.51 -20.34 -17.86 -11.38

1993 9.63 10.81 11.36 12.60 13.56 6.55 0.38 -1.20 -1.14 -4.04 -5.76 -6.00
1994 -7.64 -9.84 -11.29 -14.71 -18.03 -23.09 -28.65 -27.02 -19.07 -10.29 -0.30 5.93

The two closest matches for the QBO cycle are 1993, and 2002, based on the time at which the positive phase peaked. Now 2002 saw a secondary increase in AUG of +.55 from JUL 2002, while 1993 continued to decline and did not have any secondary jumps.

The 1993-94 winter of course was a neutral/east winter, while 2002-03 was a Moderate El Nino East winter.

I could not find any other years back to 1948 with a similar QBO peak in MAY. What is interesting through is the conditions in the Gulf Of AK during the late fall and early winter of those years were very close and associated with a frequently negative EPO and Positive PNA pattern (thanks to all the warm water in the GOA).

Those are two winters which had the same extreme in the NAPC SSTA configuration, but otherwise were completely dissimilar WRT other indices. Solar flux was different, the Atlantic and PAC were in the warm phase (2002 was in the cold phase); 1993-94 was a neutral winter, 2002-03 a moderate El Nino.

Anyway, It would take a bunch of additional research to potentially prove this theory, but it would seem as if the extremes in the EPAC signal MIGHT be associated with the QBO cycle in some way.

As a result, any secondary upswing in the QBO index may be LESS significant this year than the time at which the cycle peaks.

IF El Nino conditions develop and the QBO turns East, then yes, 1986-87 becomes an analog, as well as 1965-66, and 1968-69. None of those were boring winters.

Snowfall in those years went like this:

City, 1965-66, 1968-69, 1986-87
BOS: 44.1, 53.8, 42.5
NYC: 21.4, 30.2, 23.1
PHL: 27.4, 23.7, 25.7
DCA: 28.4, 9.1, 31.1

1968-69 SUCKED in the DCA area, while 1986-87 had 31.1” which as good, w/ 1965-66 sort of the middle ground. Go up to NYC though, and 1968-69 was a GREAT winter w/ over 30”, same with BOS which saw over 50 in.

[donsutherland1]

Great post, USAwx1.

For what it is worth, the only seasons that saw the QBO switch to East in the December-March period during a weak or moderate El Niño were 1969-70 and 2002-03.

For Washington, DC, the following data is available, including the month on which the QBO switched to East:

Season......Month..........Temp........Snowfall
1969-70.....February......36.3°.........14.0"
2002-03.....December ...37.3°.........40.4"

[Wnghs2007]

Why do yall always do DC and NY and Bos and Philly. Try somewhere else for a change. LIKE ATLANTA!!!!!!!!LOL

[USAwx1]

Great post, USAwx1.

For what it is worth, the only seasons that saw the QBO switch to East in the December-March period during a weak or moderate El Niño were 1969-70 and 2002-03.

For Washington, DC, the following data is available, including the month on which the QBO switched to East:

Season......Month..........Temp........Snowfall
1969-70.....February......36.3°.........14.0"
2002-03.....December....37.3°.........40.4"

Temps are fairly close, however there is almost a 26" difference in the snowfall totals for two seemingly similar seasons WRT global indices. Presonally, w/ all the analogs which we have discussed thus far, there arent any others which had below 15" of snow. IMO its a BIG outlier season.

Why do yall always do DC and NY and Bos and Philly. Try somewhere else for a change. LIKE ATLANTA!!!!!!!!LOL

I did give you an idea of what the analogs suggest for ATL, KC. read the "winter of 1962-63" thread.

[yoda]

2004 -4.84 2.61 5.45 10.46 12.97 11.75 9.96 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00

2002 4.64 8.00 9.32 14.03 14.16 13.26 10.05 10.60 8.90 7.66 4.46 -0.50
2003 -1.39 -1.44 -3.30 -8.57 -13.94 -18.01 -22.99 -24.64 -22.51 -20.34 -17.86 -11.38

1993 9.63 10.81 11.36 12.60 13.56 6.55 0.38 -1.20 -1.14 -4.04 -5.76 -6.00
1994 -7.64 -9.84 -11.29 -14.71 -18.03 -23.09 -28.65 -27.02 -19.07 -10.29 -0.30 5.93

The two closest matches for the QBO cycle are 1993, and 2002, based on the time at which the positive phase peaked. Now 2002 saw a secondary increase in AUG of +.55 from JUL 2002, while 1993 continued to decline and did not have any secondary jumps.

The 1993-94 winter of course was a neutral/east winter, while 2002-03 was a Moderate El Nino East winter.

I could not find any other years back to 1948 with a similar QBO peak in MAY. What is interesting through is the conditions in the Gulf Of AK during the late fall and early winter of those years were very close and associated with a frequently negative EPO and Positive PNA pattern (thanks to all the warm water in the GOA).

Those are two winters which had the same extreme in the NAPC SSTA configuration, but otherwise were completely dissimilar WRT other indices. Solar flux was different, the Atlantic and PAC were in the warm phase (2002 was in the cold phase); 1993-94 was a neutral winter, 2002-03 a moderate El Nino.

Anyway, It would take a bunch of additional research to potentially prove this theory, but it would seem as if the extremes in the EPAC signal MIGHT be associated with the QBO cycle in some way.

As a result, any secondary upswing in the QBO index may be LESS significant this year than the time at which the cycle peaks.

IF El Nino conditions develop and the QBO turns East, then yes, 1986-87 becomes an analog, as well as 1965-66, and 1968-69. None of those were boring winters.

Snowfall in those years went like this:

City, 1965-66, 1968-69, 1986-87
BOS: 44.1, 53.8, 42.5
NYC: 21.4, 30.2, 23.1
PHL: 27.4, 23.7, 25.7
DCA: 28.4, 9.1, 31.1

1968-69 SUCKED in the DCA area, while 1986-87 had 31.1” which as good, w/ 1965-66 sort of the middle ground. Go up to NYC though, and 1968-69 was a GREAT winter w/ over 30”, same with BOS which saw over 50 in.

Yep, 68-69 did suck. I wouldn't mind having a good winter with about 30 inches of snow. However... are we stating that this winter will have a weak El Nino and an Easterly QBO?

[HalloweenGale]

I was there in '69 we had 50 inches, seemed as if the storms came non-stop.

[USAwx1]

2004 -4.84 2.61 5.45 10.46 12.97 11.75 9.96 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00

2002 4.64 8.00 9.32 14.03 14.16 13.26 10.05 10.60 8.90 7.66 4.46 -0.50
2003 -1.39 -1.44 -3.30 -8.57 -13.94 -18.01 -22.99 -24.64 -22.51 -20.34 -17.86 -11.38

1993 9.63 10.81 11.36 12.60 13.56 6.55 0.38 -1.20 -1.14 -4.04 -5.76 -6.00
1994 -7.64 -9.84 -11.29 -14.71 -18.03 -23.09 -28.65 -27.02 -19.07 -10.29 -0.30 5.93

The two closest matches for the QBO cycle are 1993, and 2002, based on the time at which the positive phase peaked. Now 2002 saw a secondary increase in AUG of +.55 from JUL 2002, while 1993 continued to decline and did not have any secondary jumps.

The 1993-94 winter of course was a neutral/east winter, while 2002-03 was a Moderate El Nino East winter.

I could not find any other years back to 1948 with a similar QBO peak in MAY. What is interesting through is the conditions in the Gulf Of AK during the late fall and early winter of those years were very close and associated with a frequently negative EPO and Positive PNA pattern (thanks to all the warm water in the GOA).

Those are two winters which had the same extreme in the NAPC SSTA configuration, but otherwise were completely dissimilar WRT other indices. Solar flux was different, the Atlantic and PAC were in the warm phase (2002 was in the cold phase); 1993-94 was a neutral winter, 2002-03 a moderate El Nino.

Anyway, It would take a bunch of additional research to potentially prove this theory, but it would seem as if the extremes in the EPAC signal MIGHT be associated with the QBO cycle in some way.

As a result, any secondary upswing in the QBO index may be LESS significant this year than the time at which the cycle peaks.

IF El Nino conditions develop and the QBO turns East, then yes, 1986-87 becomes an analog, as well as 1965-66, and 1968-69. None of those were boring winters.

Snowfall in those years went like this:

City, 1965-66, 1968-69, 1986-87
BOS: 44.1, 53.8, 42.5
NYC: 21.4, 30.2, 23.1
PHL: 27.4, 23.7, 25.7
DCA: 28.4, 9.1, 31.1

1968-69 SUCKED in the DCA area, while 1986-87 had 31.1” which as good, w/ 1965-66 sort of the middle ground. Go up to NYC though, and 1968-69 was a GREAT winter w/ over 30”, same with BOS which saw over 50 in.

Yep, 68-69 did suck. I wouldn't mind having a good winter with about 30 inches of snow. However... are we stating that this winter will have a weak El Nino and an Easterly QBO?

No I'm just examining our options here. I still expect the QBo to remain west at least to start the winter for the DEC-JAN period, Feb may be transitional, and march probably East. But since were only looking at the METEOROLOGICAL winter (DEC-FEB) the QBO will be west at for the first 75% of the winter. Especially if Don is correct about his idea on there being a secondary increase.

Im pretty confident about El Nino development over the next few months, but I don't expect it to get any stronger than perhaps borderline Mod. strength.

[WEATHERGURU]

Hey anyone seen the August QBO numbers?

[USAwx1]

the AUG QBO value was below +9.00


http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/correlation/qbo.data

[WEATHERGURU]

IS this good for a good old fashion winter?