Bonnie Advisories

[Matthew5]

I ate my crow today! But There is still a chance that it could come back

[Trader Ron]

Matt,

I'm sure i will eat crow before this season is over. I've had worse...lol.

[ColdFront77]

CF,

What does "somewhat often" mean? I will bet $1000 everytime that a depression becomes an "open wave" will not regenerate. That doesn't mean it can't happen.

It is my way of saying that it is not too often, but not to an extreme.

I remember several depressions weakening into waves and regenerating over the years. Please don't call me on specific systems.

[canes04]

Patience Patience Patience!!
Just needs to slow down and regroup.

[Brent]

If it does regenerate, it'll probably be when it's over in the Western Caribbean near Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, which at the speed it's moving it'll be tomorrow night, LOL

I just don't see this turning north at all. If it was Bonnie and strengthening and had gone on the NHC path, it probably would but it's still hanging south and it's weak.

[rbaker]

I agree with most on this post, don't think we've seen the last of td2, seen this type of situation before. However, sw wind shear will have to lessen, and it will have to slow down, and of course w caribbean is always a favorite. In fact, as of this moment another red spot on the ir sat is starting to bubble about long 64 w. It seems the convection ahead of it past 65 w is now separating, will have to seen if this continues.

[Aquawind]

Well it is one confused airborn puppy this evening..Looks like the main rotation is holding back and the real convection ball is outpacing this rotation even more today..and lookie there a tad bit of shear out ahead as well..it's gotta long ways to go..Kinda interesting to watch though..we get 2 focal points versus just one..


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html


Pretty massive moisture ball in the Caribbean..so much for paving the way for 92L..lol..even I said something like that.. We are talking Dry on the backside..

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh3.html

Oh yea and Mr Shear..that guy..he is showing his face further west ..I don't imagine things will improve much until the big trough moves out and the ridge build in behind..

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html


Frankly..92L is nuttin much and the ITCZ looks pretty quiet ATM..nuttin to impressive...All I see is a model dream right now..

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... rmet7n.GIF

Patience Alrighty.. I be watching..

[Rainband]

Patience is key. Before long we will lose track of how many systems there are to track

[rbaker]

everyone on here will have own opinions, right stormchaser16.

[Stormchaser16]

Whats that all about rbaker??????

Yes everyone will have their own opinions, as me and you have so fondly demonstrated in the past

[Valkhorn]

It seems as though what was TD2 is now going to head west, and according to the models we may not want to write this off yet:

[Rainband]

rutt ro, trof coming down

[HurricaneQueen]

Uh-oh! Hope it curves as they expect-like right now!!!!

Lynn

[Guest]

Hmm I like that LBAR track.

Wont happen but I likey!

[dixiebreeze]

Aruba pressure down to 29.80 mb (1009). Wonder if TD 2 is stirring. Thoughts?

[zoeyann]

has it slowed any, and is it still moving west or more west north west?

[Stormsfury]

The system still has an established and fairly healthy MLC ... but (see DT's thread about relative shear) ... low levels are still moving way too fast for ... 1) to close off an LLC 2) anything that tries to spin up outraces the convection ... the lower-levels have to catch up to the MLC and this thing HAS to slow down before any congealing of the wave can occur ...

SF

[zoeyann]

what would cause a storm to slow

[rbaker]

just reading the thread, and pointing out like me and you, we both have our own opinions and analysis and how we arrive at them.

[HurricaneQueen]

If that LBAR were to prove out you'd get the bad side and we'd get the weaker side. Either way, I'm not crazy about a potential hurricane splitting the state of FL vertically!!!

I know it is very far fetched but had to respond!
Lynn