Bonnie Advisories

[Nimbus]

Notice that the last leg of the LBAR is shorter than the others?

[Guest]

A hurricane is going to happen one day & it wont be my fault or your fault so just prepare for the worst,hope for the best because that day will come if you live in South fla.

[Hyperstorm]

As Stormsfury said, the system does have and always had a healthy MLC. We only need the system to slow down and convection to start refiring over the center.

In fact....latest satellite images indeed suggest that the system has slowed down quite a bit this evening and convection is refiring over where the MLC is located. IF we see this persist over the next 12 hours, the system might be reclassified. I wouldn't put my hopes up just yet, but the fact that it has slowed down and is no longer suffering windshear due to the rapid motion brings up the possibility of regeneration soon.

In ANY case, if the system does want to regenerate and persist as a tropical cyclone, it will have to move NW over the islands and into the Bahamas moving in tandem with the flow from the south ahead of it. There is practically NO WAY this system can make it to the W. Caribbean as a TROPICAL CYCLONE. If it does so, it will be a tropical wave...Just look at the E. Pacific and you'll see the beginnings a system probably developing south of Central America and this alone will squash any potential for a TC to persist in the Caribbean.

[Wthrman13]

In my opinion, one should always keep in mind the storm relative flow (and not surface relative) when determining whether conditions are favorable or not for a TC. The ambiguity arises in these cases where you have fast moving weak systems, where the circulation relative to the surface is not closed, but relative to the system, it is. The definition of a closed low is in reference to a surface-relative, and not storm-relative framework, but the system itself only "cares" about the storm-relative flow.

This holds true for systems other than TC's as well. In the case of supercells, it's the storm-relative wind parameters, such as storm relative helicity, that are most important to whether or not the supercell is tornadic.

Be that as it may, shear is still shear (the difference between the horizontal wind at two different levels), whether or not it is due to fast low-level easterly flow underneath relatively favorable upper-level conditions (as is often the case with these fast moving weaks systems), or due to strong upper-level winds. Both kinds are bad for TC's.

[PTrackerLA]

Looking at some long sat. loops of former TD 2, it has slowed down quite a bit. It's not over folks, les we not forget Lili .

[Brent]

In ANY case, if the system does want to regenerate and persist as a tropical cyclone, it will have to move NW over the islands and into the Bahamas moving in tandem with the flow from the south ahead of it. There is practically NO WAY this system can make it to the W. Caribbean as a TROPICAL CYCLONE. If it does so, it will be a tropical wave...Just look at the E. Pacific and you'll see the beginnings a system probably developing south of Central America and this alone will squash any potential for a TC to persist in the Caribbean.

[MWatkins]

TD2 is looking a little better tonight...for a couple of reasons.

First of all the thing has finally slowed down. The large thunderstorm complex out in front of the system (and the associated outflow boundary) has pushed away some...and upper level winds over 65W have improved a little.

Deep thunderstorms are starting to redevelop back near 13.5/65 where the mid-level center probably has been trucking along for most of the day.

Now that the other (afore mentioned) storms are out of the way...and since the system has slowed down some...we could see some additional development.

Something to watch overnight...it's on life support...but not completely dead yet.

MW

[Hurricanehink]

I think its in a coma... We'll see what happens, but you are right. It is looking a little better.

[kevin]

I see that the convection further west died down and convection in the east is starting to concentrate. Is this what you mean?

[MWatkins]

I see that the convection further west died down and convection in the east is starting to concentrate. Is this what you mean?

Exactly...those thunderstorms getting out of the way are going to help if something gets going back to the east...by getting some sinking air out of the way and not interfering with any inflow trying to get established to the west.

Hard to say if anything is actually going to go...but something to watch.

MW

[Hyperstorm]

This is exactly what I posted at another post earlier this evening. The system might be reclassified again if it persists. Tomorrow morning should prove interesting, but as I have already pointed out...the system must move NW or it will have an extremely tough time, even trying to get itself through the Caribbean.

Keep monitoring folks-----"TD 2"------was never dead...

[Thunder44]

Dr. Steve Lyons just talked about the same thing MW was talking about.

[wx247]

This is what a couple of us posted on earlier this afternoon. Convection looks even more concentrated than even earlier.

[Brent]

Very interesting.

Recon is scheduled to go into the system in the morning.

NHC a little more positive about development.

10:30 TWO:

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...ARE MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED ABOUT 185 MILES EAST OF
BONAIRE...OR ABOUT 360 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. THE
SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM MAY ALLOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER TO FORM AND....IF NECESSARY...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THURSDAY
MORNING TO DETERMINE IF REGENERATION IS OCCURRING.

[wx247]

Yep. Nothing is ever cut and dried in the world of weather. The tropics are no exception.

[boca]

It looks like the front part of old TD2 is out running the Eastern edge of the system and that part that is blossoming, doesn't seem to be moving very fast almost looks stationary. I hope I made sense of this.

[lilbump3000]

That seems about correct that the new thunderstorm complex is stationary and that is were we will have to look for a LLC to form at if one does form.

[boca]

Which way would it now go?

[MWatkins]

Just a couple of Dvorak estimates from tonight:

AFWA (KGWC): 2315Z 13.2N 63.7W T2.0 (3/10 log 10 spiral banding)
TAFB: 2345Z 13.2N 65.0W T1.5 (2/10 log 10 spiral banding)

Satellite fixes are still TD worthy.

MW

[hurricanemike]

Ex TD2 looking better this morning:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

This maybe promising.