Alex Advisories

[PTrackerLA]

I doubt the NHC will upgrade, although I'd bet if the hunters flew in there right now they would find a cat 3.

[Hyperstorm]

As was already noted, the system has strengthened and upgraded by the NHC. I'm pretty surprised knowing they are rather conservative, but 120 mph is enough! It's no secret the system was the best it's been this evening. Cloud tops may not be the coldest, but the eye has contracted and warmed significantly over the past few hours. Alex still surprising us!

[Stephanie]

That eye said it all. He's one good-looking hurricane!

[PTrackerLA]

Well I guess i just ate my words saying the NHC wouldn't upgrade it. It sure is a beauty right now and a pure fish!

[NJCane]

Where does it say that is has been upgraded?

[Hyperstorm]

Oh, I'm sorry. I stil don't have the tropical models, but if anyone does please post them here. I just noted that in the NAVY site they list Alex as a 105kt storm. Therefore it will be upgraded at 11pm. I'm still shocked to see this thing strengthen against all odds...A very good explanation was given by Stormsfury yesterday, but more intensity forecasting research must be done.

Where's the weak tropical storm they were forecasting by this time 3 days ago???

[Guest]

Aren't hurricanes at that latitude suppose to diminish becuase of cooler waters? Then what is the reasoning for Alex's unexpected increase? It is impressive though.

[NJCane]

It is in the north wall of the gulf stream which has plenty warm enough waters. Not too far north the waters are much cooler and Alex would be falling apart.

[Guest]

ah

[Hyperstorm]

Of interest...the last time the A storm became a major hurricane was Hurricane Alberto in the year 2000 and before that Hurricane Andrew in the year 1992. Not a very usual occurence, but of note...these have all occured during the month of August.

[Rainband]

WOW

[Hurricanehink]

Wow! 120 is really high... they will probably bring it up to 115. I can't believe how much it is intensifying now. Well, Alex has done it all. First TD, first TS, first H, and first MH. Way to go Alex!

[soonertwister]

Very soon to be extratropical, and then absorbed into the trough.

Alex was the rogue, and a fighter to the end.

[HalloweenGale]

Let it bring havoc on the british isles.

[Thunder44]

Hey, Hyperstorm can you provide a link to this infomation. I can't find it anywhere on the site or the info is not updated.

[Derek Ortt]

even cangialosi is surprised at this being a major

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl012004forecast.html

[Hyperstorm]

Hey, Hyperstorm can you provide a link to this infomation. I can't find it anywhere on the site or the info is not updated.

Here's the information, I almost forgot to post it.

992
WHXX01 KWBC 050107
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE ALEX (AL012004) ON 20040805 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040805 0000 040805 1200 040806 0000 040806 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 38.5N 66.0W 41.1N 59.8W 44.1N 51.3W 45.6N 40.9W
BAMM 38.5N 66.0W 40.8N 60.1W 43.4N 52.4W 44.8N 43.5W
A98E 38.5N 66.0W 40.3N 60.5W 42.4N 52.6W 44.7N 42.4W

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040807 0000 040808 0000 040809 0000 040810 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 44.6N 30.5W 39.4N 17.0W 39.1N 6.3W 45.8N 6.0E
BAMM 44.0N 34.5W 37.5N 23.9W 32.3N 23.8W 29.9N 27.0W
A98E 43.1N 31.3W 39.3N 18.9W 39.4N 8.3W 39.1N .9E

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 38.5N LONCUR = 66.0W DIRCUR = 70DEG SPDCUR = 19KT
LATM12 = 37.3N LONM12 = 70.2W DIRM12 = 70DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 36.0N LONM24 = 73.8W
WNDCUR = 105KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 85KT
CENPRS = 957MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 80NM RD34SE = 150NM RD34SW = 130NM RD34NW = 70NM

[Anonymous]

The first major hurricane of the 2004 atlantic hurricane season.

[Thunder44]

thanks

[Stormchaser16]

Classic...... absolutely 100% classic

I am at a loss for words