CMC forecasting Cat. 3 by 72 hrs.....

[The Dark Knight]

I know that the models aren't all that reliable but, I found this very interesting...... I was browsing through the models and I was at the CMC... It has 99L headed twoards NC. Then the trough that is over TX KS makes the system turn direction completely and spits it back out over the Eastern Seaboard... Then it develops into a powerful hurricane before side-swiping Cape Cod then making landfall somewhere in the Canadian Maritimes....... Is this a possible scenario???? Could the trough speed up like that and cause a storm to turn around.. Are the Atlantic waters really that warm????......
Comments are encouraged!!!!
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/cmc ... =Animation

[Derecho]

1) The Canadian is the worst global tropical model in existence

2) The really intense system it depicts N of North Carolina isn't fully or even mostly tropical

[The Dark Knight]

Thanks for the info.... I won't go by the CMC anymore..... I just found it very interesting that it would even develop such a storm.....

[Derek Ortt]

Actually, Derecho, CMC last year was accurate with both Claudette and Erika in terms of where it made landfall and in depicting the last minute RI of each feature. It had its problems with Fabian and Isabel but it really wasn't any better or worse than a few of the others

[The Dark Knight]

The NGM also likes this storm... http://weather.unisys.com/ngm/loop/ngm_pres_loop.html

[Brent]

LOL!

CMC is on crack.

[vacanechaser]

Actually, Derecho, CMC last year was accurate with both Claudette and Erika in terms of where it made landfall and in depicting the last minute RI of each feature. It had its problems with Fabian and Isabel but it really wasn't any better or worse than a few of the others

certainly was not any worse than the GFS with Isabel... what was it... 108mb low when Isabel was a cat 5!! thats pretty bad... it pretty much nailed the track though...

[Derek Ortt]

Score abother for the CMC. Only the model to show significant development.

This is not the worst model at all. In fact, as I've said in another thread, it is the only one that has any clue when predicting rapid intensification immediately after genesis

[Hyperstorm]

Definitely a BRAVO to the CMC. It's the only one that's not surprised about this upgrade. After all the insults, it has more than proven itself...BRAVO.

[Stormchaser16]

EXCELLENT job by the CMC, track was a little off(into NS) but other then that WOW

[Anonymous]

Yep, indeed.

[HalloweenGale]

No, the trough is too strong. It will just push ALEX away, and ALEX will pummel the British Isles (I hope)

[rainstorm]

Actually, Derecho, CMC last year was accurate with both Claudette and Erika in terms of where it made landfall and in depicting the last minute RI of each feature. It had its problems with Fabian and Isabel but it really wasn't any better or worse than a few of the others

certainly was not any worse than the GFS with Isabel... what was it... 108mb low when Isabel was a cat 5!! thats pretty bad... it pretty much nailed the track though...

108mb??? omg, thats a cat500!!!

[hurricanemike]

ignore the NGM...thats a middle latitude model.

[Derecho]

The main CMC problem is it's utter and complete worthlessness on track; a total disaster.

[Stormchaser16]

But Derecho didnt you say the system it depicted off N carolina wasnt even mostly tropical????

Oops lol

And actually its track from what i see isnt that bad

[Derecho]

It wasn't tropical; the storm depicted on that run, on the CMC phase-diagram maps at the PSU site, was a hybrid system.

And the track was into Maine. You'll notice Alex isn't heading into Maine.

[Stormchaser16]

Yes your right.......

I was just joking around with you....

But are you sure what the CMC is showing there isnt what was to be Alex, it has it coming from the Bahamas

[Derecho]

Actually, Derecho, CMC last year was accurate with both Claudette and Erika in terms of where it made landfall and in depicting the last minute RI of each feature. It had its problems with Fabian and Isabel but it really wasn't any better or worse than a few of the others

I'm sorry, but that's flat out wrong regarding Fabian and Isabel. Of the globals, the CMC was clearly an outlier for two storms (Fabian and Isabel) that otherwise had EXCELLENT agreement.

I had all of the models actually plotted in Stormtrakker, and looked at the model verification numbers; the CMC was easily off alone as the worst global. Unfortunately due to betatesting of new versions I don't have the old Isabel files.

For Isabel, while the other models converged on a NC landfall, and the CMC was off by itself showing NY/NJ landfall basically right up to the actual landfall; it as usual caused Cosgrove to hug it and forecast a landfall far north of the actual landfall.

[Derek Ortt]

I was talking about depicting the formation. And Izzy wasnt the only one. Jimena, Claudette and Erika were also major successes with that model, depicting the rapid intensification in the correct place prior to development