The years which saw the FIRST NS of the season reach at least CAT 3 intensity were as follows (since 1945):
1945, 1950, 1951, 1961, 1966, 1977, 1980, 1983, 2000
In 1945, the total number of storms which formed was 11. 5 of those 11 (45%) reached hurricane status and 3 of the 5 hurricanes (60%) got up to CAT 3 strength or higher.
http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane ... index.html
1945 would NOT support the idea above WRT the ratio of the number of NS to Hurricanes but WOULD support the idea for the ratio of hurricanes to intense hurricanes w/ 60% reaching or exceeding CAT 3 intensity.
1950 saw 13 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 8 intense hurricanes.
http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane ... index.html
A WHOPPING 84% of systems which formed in this particular season reached hurricane status and a similarly impressive 72% reached/exceeded CAT 3 intensity. 1950 seems to support this idea.
1951 was just as impressive w/ 10 NS, 8 H and 5 IH.
http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane ... index.html
Here we had 80% of the total number of storms that formed becoming hurricanes, and 62% of the hurricanes becoming major Hurricanes. Seems to fit for both the ratio of total storms to canes and canes to major hurricanes.
1961: 11 NS, 8 H, 7 IH
72% of the total systems in 1961 reached hurricane intensity and 87% of hurricanes reached major hurricane intensity.
http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane ... index.html
So, along with 1950, and 1951—1961 would also support our theory.
1966: 11 NS, 7 H, 3 IH.
In 1966, 63% of the total number of storms became hurricanes, and 42% of the total number of canes reached CAT 3 strength or better.
Now, 1966 DOES support the theory for the ratio of NS to Hurricanes, but NOT for the number of canes to major canes.
http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane ... index.html
1977: 6 NS, 5 H, 1 IH.
Ironically, this season saw the FIRST storm become the strongest of the season---reaching CAT 5 strength! That storm being Hurricane Anita which was active from 8/29 to 9/3.
Otherwise, 83% of the total storms that formed reached hurricane status, while only 20% (or in this case just ONE storm) attained major hurricane intensity.
http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane ... index.html
Therefore, 1977 fits the bill for the ratio of NS to Hurricanes, but NOT for the ratio of canes to major hurricanes.
1980: 11 NS, 9 H, 2 IH.
ANOTHER season started w/ a bang. Hurricane Allen reached CAT 5 Status twice during it’s life span from JUL 31-AUG 11.
81% of the total number of storms became Hurricanes, however like 1977, only 22% of the total number of canes that formed reached/exceeded CAT 3 intensity.
http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane ... index.html
Like 1977, it fits the bill for the ratio of NS to Hurricanes, but NOT for the ratio of canes to major hurricanes.
1983: 4 NS, 3 H, 1 IH
Here we have one of the most intensely boring seasons in recent memory. Heck the 1983 hurricane season was better than prescription ambien for sleep deprivation. Only 4 NS formed.
In any case 75% of the total number of storms that formed became hurricanes, and 25% of the total number of canes reached major hurricane strength. This would place 1983 in a similar boat as 1966, and 1977.
http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane ... index.html
2000: 15 NS, 8H, 3 IH.
53% of total systems which formed in 2000 became hurricanes and 37% of the total number of hurricanes became major hurricanes.
http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane ... index.html
For this reason 2000 also joins 1966, 1977, and 1983 as a year which fit for the relationship between Names storms and Canes, but NOT for the relationship between canes and Major canes.
SO what can we conclude…
1. 9/10 (90%) seasons in which the first NS of the season reached Major hurricane status saw OVER 50% of the total named storms become Hurricanes.
2. 3/10 (30%) seasons saw both over 50% of the total number of storms which formed become hurricanes, AND over half of the total number of hurricanes become Major Hurricanes.
3. 4/10 (40%) saw over half of the total named storms become canes BUT less than 50% of hurricanes become major hurricanes.
The correlation between the First NS of the season becoming a Major Hurricane and over half of the named storms the remainder of the season becoming at least hurricanes seems to be the strongest.
Thus, we may be able to suggest that a majority of the systems which form this season will at the VERY LEAST become hurricanes.
