Bonnie Advisories

[The Dark Knight]

We will see.....

[jlauderdal]

"Look at the water vapor image loop. The big high pressure system over the southeast looks like it is starting to bridge north of the islands. This should roll the shear rapidly west as an ULL. The more favorable conditions are already in the official forecast."

Good points, Nimbus. Conditions will soon be more favorable.

you ever see a system run into a brick wall, well here you go,..


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Guest]

According to the weather people here in C. Florida, the trough should be moving out by Sunday night and this is what they say might develop a low when it leaves. So the trough according to what i am hearing will not be here for long.

[Patrick99]

Looks to me like the shear is currently enhancing the convection. It does have that running into the brick wall look, and will probably lose it a few hours from now, but right now that's a nice-looking ball of storms!

[c5Camille]

when looking at the visible loop... looks like the
leading edge has a little north wind to it...
around 14.0 and 71.5 not sure
if its surface or not... hard to tell.

[MWatkins]

The quikscat imagery from earlier today isn't all that terrible...it shows a well-defined wave in the low-levels...



Although this would suggest that a low center (if there is one) would be a little further than the position fixes that have come in this morning. Then again...the convective envelope has expanded BIGTIME in the last 6 hours...in part no doubt due to upper difluence from the westerly shear down there...but as compared to yesterday...much more impressive in terms of thunderstorms (not necessarily in terms of organization):



Still interesting...the 12Z GFS brings a weak vortex up to SFL in 3 days.

Rest of the global guidance still to come.

MW

[Rainband]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 051713
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
113 PM EDT THU AUG 5 2004

.SHORT TERM (TNGT THRU SAT)...A WHOLE HOST OF PROBLEMS THIS FORECAST
CYCLE. I WILL DEAL WITH THEM IN CHRONOLOGICAL ORDER.

THIS EVENING...AS VORT MAX SLIPS SOUTHWARD...ACTIVITY SHOULD
DECREASE QUICKLY OVER THE NORTH. SOME DRYING ALOFT WILL MOVE IN AS
WELL. THINGS WILL BE SLOWER TO DISSIPATE OVER THE SOUTH WHERE SOME
LIFT WILL STILL REMAIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT...SO I HAVE LEFT SCATTERED
FROM SEBRING TO ENGLEWOOD. IT SHOULD BE MAINLY LOW TOP ACTIVITY.
MY 30 POPS ARE A BIT BELOW BOTH MAV AND MET...BUT HARD TO SEE
SUPPORT FOR MORE.

FRIDAY...FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN FA DURING THE DAY...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. QPF A
BIG QUESTION MARK WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN PWS BETWEEN THE
MODELS. ALSO...GFS SHOWS TWO DISTINCT BANDS OF PRECIP WHILE ETA
SHOWS CONVECTION MAINLY WITH THE FRONT. I HAVE OPTED FOR A BLEND...
WHICH FOLLOWS REASONABLY WELL WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL LET FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ETA AND GFS SHOW LARGE DIFFERENCES
AGAIN WITH FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION...BUT THE
SOLUTIONS HAVE FLIPPED FROM 24 HOURS AGO. NOW...THE GFS IS MUCH
SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AND HAS A MUCH WETTER SCENARIO FOR SATURDAY
WITH THE ETA DRIES THE NORTH AND CENTRAL OUT QUITE A BIT. WITH SUCH
A SPLIT DECISION...I HAVE DECIDED TO GO ALONG WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND HOPE THAT FUTURE RUNS CAN COME TO A BETTER CONSENSUS.

.EXTENDED (SAT NGT THRU THU)...MODEL DIFFERENCES ALSO HAVE
A BIG EFFECT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER SUNDAY AS GFS NOW PAINTS A LOT OF
RAIN. I HAVE GONE FOR SCATTERED...BUT IF GFS VERIFIES MY COVERAGE
WILL BE TOO LOW.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING INTERACTION OF OLD FRONT AND REMNANTS
OF TD 2 FOR NEXT WEEK...SO I HAVE NOT MADE MUCH CHANGE OTHER THAN
TO INCREASE POPS TO CLIMO.

&&

.MARINE...WEST WINDS OF PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL HANG ON INTO FRIDAY...
THEN START TO HEAD TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT FOR CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN LEGS. GFS INDICATES A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER EAST WINDS
SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE NORTH. I HAVE NOT GONE QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE.
ENGLEWOOD SOUTH IS A TOUGH CALL DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF FINAL RESTING
PLACE OF FRONT. I HAVE GONE WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THERE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 078 088 076 088 / 20 50 20 40
FMY 075 088 075 088 / 30 60 20 60
GIF 075 089 075 089 / 20 60 20 40
SRQ 079 087 075 087 / 20 60 20 50
BKV 075 087 074 089 / 20 40 20 20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

ALSHEIMER

[yoda]

So, we could see TD#2 and a TD#3? Interesting...
What do the globals do with 92L?

[vbhoutex]

Looks pretty good on the latest passes too. Still definitely an open wave though.

[vbhoutex]

"Look at the water vapor image loop. The big high pressure system over the southeast looks like it is starting to bridge north of the islands. This should roll the shear rapidly west as an ULL. The more favorable conditions are already in the official forecast."

Good points, Nimbus. Conditions will soon be more favorable.

you ever see a system run into a brick wall, well here you go,..


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Best description I can think of for what is currently happening. Look for the tops to start disappearing quickly as the afternoon progresses at least until it is past that VERY STRONG SHEAR. After that it may have a chance to regen if there is anything left.

[The Dark Knight]

We'll see.......

[cycloneye]

Discussion of 2:05 PM EDT about ex TD#2.

A TROPICAL WAVE...REMNANTS
OF T.D. TWO...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG CONVECTION S OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE WAVE IS ENCOUNTERING A DIFFLUENT
MID/UPPER ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
JUST E OF JAMAICA. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LOW IS PRODUCING WLY
SHEAR OVER THE WAVE LIMITING ORGANIZATION IN THE SHORT-TERM.
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT/FRACTURE FROM THE MID-OCEANIC
TROUGH DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AND MOVE W IN TANDEM WITH THE
WAVE. THIS COULD CREATE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FUTURE
DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...ASSOCIATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD NW DURING THE
NEXT TWO DAYS.

[The Dark Knight]

Muy interesting......

[Weatherboy1]

Right now, we still have a wave in the Caribbean that is apparently now forecast to head toward FL. We'll see if it turns into anything more than that, but at the very least, NWS Miami is predicting a real soaker down here:

THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS FORMERLY TD 2 OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CUBA AND COULD BRING AN FURTHER INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE CWA BY SUNDAY. WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...THE STALL FRONT...AND THE RAIN WE HAVE ALREADY HAD...THERE
COULD BE A NEED FOR A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL THEN WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS BUILDS INTO THE CWA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOUTH FLORIDA TO GET BACK TO A MORE NORMAL SUMMER TIME
PATTERN WITH SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG BOTH COAST IN THE MORNINGS AND THEN PUSHING INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

[MGC]

The wave is pushing out some outflow boundries this afternoon. Need I say more.....MGC

[The Dark Knight]

[c5Camille]

most impressive wave....

[The Dark Knight]

It is very impressive......

[BayouVenteux]

Impressive indeed, "but..." to paraphrase the legendary Duke Ellington, "...it don't mean a thin' if it ain't got that spin. Doo wop doo wop."

[The Dark Knight]

Hahahaha...LOL