Bonnie Advisories

[Derek Ortt]

That image shows the outflow boundaries. This convection will dissipate and within the next few hours

[ColdFront77]

Is that a guaranteed, Derek?

[Josephine96]

Looks good.. Hope it persists

[stormcloud]

Outflow boundaries: I agree. When you see convection moving away from a system like this, tells us that there ain't much low level inflow.

[HURAKAN]

I remember that also pre-Claudette developed an impressive amount of convection without any circulation and the enviromental factors were not favorable for development with the ULL to the west of the system. Now, we have something similar. I'm ancious to read what the NHC has to say at 5:30 EDT about Ex. TD #2, and 92L, which begins to catch my attention, good circulation but lacks storms. If we could combine both systems then we could have a good system. What do you think?

[Aquawind]

2pm TWD

CARIBBEAN...
MID-OCEANIC TROUGH SPLITS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE SW TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE TROUGH IS
PRODUCING CONFLUENCE/SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR OVER A GOOD PORTION
OF THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. FURTHER
S...SHARP/WELL DEFINED RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NW INTO
CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR NICARAGUA. MID/UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW ALONG
AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IS PRODUCING ENHANCED ITCZ
CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...SE NICARAGUA...E PANAMA...AND
NW COLOMBIA. OVER THE E CARIBBEAN...A TROPICAL WAVE...REMNANTS
OF T.D. TWO...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG CONVECTION S OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE WAVE IS ENCOUNTERING A DIFFLUENT
MID/UPPER ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
JUST E OF JAMAICA. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LOW IS PRODUCING WLY
SHEAR OVER THE WAVE LIMITING ORGANIZATION IN THE SHORT-TERM.
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT/FRACTURE FROM THE MID-OCEANIC
TROUGH DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AND MOVE W IN TANDEM WITH THE
WAVE. THIS COULD CREATE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FUTURE
DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...ASSOCIATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD NW DURING THE
NEXT TWO DAYS.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh3.html

Well looking at the Water Vapor Loop the upper air is rather interesting..It looks like a large triangle of drier air is associated with this UL Trough and ULL that is splitting..notice the upper level winds associated with the loop..NW quad is getting a NE kick and the southern edge is about to get a kick with the westerly shear/vapor line..it does look like things will get a tad more favorable in due time..of course the current convection ball will still have a hard time but the models are still hinting at this thingy staying together in some form..



http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/


Now DR/Haiti is getting some rain..Hopefully this isn't take 2 of earlier this year..lotsa moisture around to work with..

[Brent]

Is that a guaranteed, Derek?

Yes. If you want development from a tropical system, you do NOT want to see outflow boundaries.

[ColdFront77]

Sure, Brent. I was thinking somethings else. Sorry.

[Aquawind]

First thing the caught my eye was Outflow Boundries..and of course Biggie Convection... I can see Luis down at the beach with a beer and a babe as well...he musta just got off work..

[The Dark Knight]

LOL.....

[dixiebreeze]

Thanks for the info, aquawind. Good post.

[Aquawind]

I notice the same paragraph Luis.. Sorry I missed your post..

http://66.98.251.192/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=35440

[Aquawind]

The wave is pushing out some outflow boundries this afternoon. Need I say more.....MGC

Nothing is mentioned about today..tomorrow is whole diferrent story as that can change at any time..You should have said more..lol.. in referrence to outflow boundries that is..

[Thunder44]

The most important thing this tells us I believe is that the wave is alive and kicking. It's not going to develop today, because of the shear, but when conditions become favorable for development, than it something to watch.

[Aquawind]

The most important thing this tells us I believe is that the wave is alive and kicking. It's not going to develop today, because of the shear, but when conditions become favorable for development, than it something to watch.

Well Said Thunder44..

[ColdFront77]

It has a lot of convection to work with. The chances of decreasing wind shear has been continual, thus
the chances for regeneration 'can't be that far off' with what has been said about this system yesterday
afternoon, last evening and this morning, into the afternoon.

[Guest]

Can someone explain outflow. Does that meand outer banding or what?

[c5Camille]

we would have to shot you if we told you....

[yoda]

First thing the caught my eye was Outflow Boundries..and of course Biggie Convection... I can see Luis down at the beach with a beer and a babe as well...he musta just got off work..

Oh dear!!

[Anonymous]

Reminds me of the pre-cat 4 Lili.