Bonnie Advisories

The Dark Knight · #861 Postby **The Dark Knight** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 3:42 pm

LOL.....

jabber · #862 Postby **jabber** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 3:44 pm

Check out the last vis... do I see a naked swirl at about 73 and 17? Shear is really nailing it from the west

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Matthew5 · #863 Postby **Matthew5** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 3:46 pm

Kind of looks like there is a slight spin. But it might be my eyes!

The Dark Knight · #864 Postby **The Dark Knight** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 3:48 pm

Uh oh.... That's definately NOT good...... That swirl best be gettin' back under the convection if it wants a chance of developing..... I guess the westerly shear is pretty bad.. I hope that it will weaken some, allowing the swirl to go back under the convection and maybe form into a TD..... We'll see..........

Aquawind · #865 Postby **Aquawind** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 3:50 pm

Looking at this zoomed loop..I think it's multiple outflow boundries with some mini collisions and the swirl looks kinda milky like upper air as well..my guess..

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

The Dark Knight · #866 Postby **The Dark Knight** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 3:55 pm

Hmmmmmmmmm.............

lilbump3000 · #867 Postby **lilbump3000** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 3:55 pm

If you look on the infrared or visible loop of the floater on TD 2, towards the end of the frame it seems like that westerly shear seems to be starting to relax or not as strong as it was eariler today.

#868 Postby **Hurricanehink** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 3:56 pm

Little bump to see what happens. We'll see if it redevelops, but as of now, 5 people were right. No crow tonight!

The Dark Knight · #869 Postby **The Dark Knight** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 3:58 pm

A good sign...???????

lilbump3000 · #870 Postby **lilbump3000** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 3:58 pm

Yes that would be a good sign.

c5Camille · #871 Postby **c5Camille** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 4:00 pm

she should lose most if not all of her
convertion tonight... just as she did last night...

The Dark Knight · #872 Postby **The Dark Knight** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 4:02 pm

LOL......

wayoutfront · #873 Postby **wayoutfront** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 4:09 pm

How will the moisture coming N off the yucatan affect it, or will it

seem my disclimer below

rainydaze · #874 Postby **rainydaze** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 5:50 pm

WOW...Looks like all this tropical activity has got the Tampa NWS stumped! The models are not helping by disagreeing with each other...LOL

Should be a (rainy) interesting weekend here in SoFla

#875 Postby **jlauderdal** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 6:03 pm

rainydaze wrote:WOW...Looks like all this tropical activity has got the Tampa NWS stumped! The models are not helping by disagreeing with each other...LOL

Should be a (rainy) interesting weekend here in SoFla

Everyone else is stumped so they are just joining in on the fun.

caneman · #876 Postby **caneman** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 7:08 pm

THE REMNANTS OF T.D. TWO ARE NOW A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 71W/72W S
OF 20N MOVING W 20 KT. EVEN THOUGH UPPER WINDS ARE NOT
CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT... COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE
THAT CONDITIONS MIGHT BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN LATE FRI
INTO SAT. SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE CONFINED THE E SEMICIRCLE OF THE
WAVE FROM 13N-20N W OF 70W TO THE WAVE AXIS. HEAVY RAINS COULD
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN HISPANIOLA

caneflyer · #877 Postby **caneflyer** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 9:32 pm

Just a generic caution about interpreting QuikSCAT vectors. The scatterometer does not measure direction uniquely. Each QS measurement is associated with 2, 3, or 4 possible directions, which are known as ambiguities. In the normal QS display, an "ambiguity-removal" algorithm is used to decide which of the ambiguities is the most likely correct one. These algorithms vary, depending whether the data are being processed by NOAA/NESDIS or NRL. These algorithms rely to some extent on a model analysis field, and they fail to choose the correct solution with great frequency. Choosing the wrong ambiguity can make all the difference between the appearance of an open wave and a closed circulation. Frequently, even in well-developed tropical cyclones, the center can appear misplaced simply because the ambiguity removal algorithm made some bad choices. Both the NOAA/NESDIS QS page and the NRL web site post the complete QS ambiguity solutions. They can be quite fun to analyze!

KatDaddy · #878 Postby **KatDaddy** » Fri Aug 06, 2004 4:23 am

A few AFD exceprts that discuss the TD 2 remnants

TALLAHASSEE FL AFD

.LONG TERM...SUN NIGHT THROUGH THU.
THE DEAMPLIFICATION IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL ALLOW A RIDGE TO
BUILD W ACROSS FL AND MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THINGS COULD GET
INTERESTING BY MIDWEEK. BOTH THE ETA AND THE GFS BRING THE REMNANTS
OF TD 2 THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SUN NIGHT. THERE IS REMARKABLE
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THESE TWO MODELS AT 84 HOURS WITH THE LOW
POSITION. AFTER THAT TIME, THE GFS BRINGS THE LOW NNWD INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF ON TUE. THIS SOLUTION IS QUITE DIFFERENT (FURTHER W)
THAN THAT OF THE 00Z THU GFSX, SO IT IS TOO SOON TO JUSTIFY CHANGING
POPS IN THE EXTENDED. WILL DEFER THE DAY SHIFT.

MIAMI AFD

STRONG TROP WV IN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
(FORMERLY KNOWN AS T.D. 2) WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W AND MODELS SHOW
THE MAIN AXIS PASSING JUST TO OUR S ON SUN. HOWEVER, AT THE SAME TIME,
AS AFOREMENTIONED LONG WAVE PATTERN SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE E UPPER
ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD. THIS WILL GIVE US A
DEEP SE TO S FLOW WHICH WILL PULL SOME OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.

HouTXmetro · #879 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Fri Aug 06, 2004 1:28 pm

To me it appears TD2 has been in the same spot for a few days. Or has the convection just been left behind. I'm having a hard time trying to figure out how anything will make it though all that shear. It looks like a brick wall.

NorthGaWeather · #880 Postby **NorthGaWeather** » Fri Aug 06, 2004 1:30 pm

Shear has decreased 10 kts today.

Bonnie Advisories

Former TD2 Naked Swirl ?

Might be a dumb question....

TD#2 ain't dead yet- Could become more favorable in W.Carib.

interpreting QuikSCAT

TD 2 Remnants & Florida AFDs

Will TD2 even make it to the Gulf?

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