Alex Advisories

[ColdFront77]

I believe Matt's statement:

45 mph in we where thinking that tropical depression two was moving fast!

.....was simply comparing the two systems speeds in general.

[kevin]

Probably. I think I might have read it wrong. I thought he meant too fast... man that sucks. Ah well, I still mean what I wrote, just not personal Matthew!

[The Dark Knight]

Definately weird......

[c5Camille]

weirdest

[Derecho]

This is a case where you need to educate yourself so that model tracks aren't just lines on the map.

The BAM models are resonably effective, but fairly simple, tropical models....

However, Alex is going to go EXTRATROPICAL in 24-48 hours; all of the BAM models are essentially worthless for an extratropical storm, and likely the reasons for weirdness late in the track.

The BAMS (Beta and Advection Model, SHALLOW layer) is extra-worthless, almost never applicable to any tropical storm except the absolute weakest waves or a HORRIBLY sheared TD.

Alex ain't coming back to the East Coast. Count on it. As pointed out, Ginger was never that far North.

[ncweatherwizard]

I don't know if anything else has been posted, or what you have or haven't seen, but there was a "swath" cut out south of the inlet formed by Isabel...I guess it's technically an inlet, but not much of one..not nearly as deep as the one dug out by Isabel. Don't know if there's a picture online.

Also mandatory evacuations are now in effect for Ocracoke due to damaged septic systems, flooding, and downed lines. As one resident of Hatteras said paraphrased, "...we just weren't ready for something like this..."

[ncweatherwizard]

Here's a photo of the "breach" from The Virginian-Pilot:

http://home.hamptonroads.com/stories/st ... ran=155946

[ColdFront77]

That's right Derecho. My comments were only made in the general sense. It seems (if it isn't true), that I oftentimes come across as I don't know what I'm talking about.

I guess there is no other way for me to tell everyone here how honest I am.

[Typhoon_Willie]

from a couple of days ago!

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gall ... 5.500m.jpg

[The Dark Knight]

Good size breach...

[The Dark Knight]

Nice avatar, and the Alex picture.....

[stormcrow]

Question, is there a maximum speed before a hurricane falls apart, Alex is a cat 2 traveling at 44 mph ( 1056 miles per day)?

[hurricanetrack]

I was out there on Tuesday where the ferry landing is on Hatteras- at the Village. I rode from there to Oregon Inlet and did not see this swath. I am reviewing our video and observations from my colleagues as to how we would have driven through a swath in our vehicles without noticing it.

Not saying it did not happen- there is obviously a photo of a swath- but I did not a swath or a breach of that magnitude while I was out there.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Thanks Dark Knight!

[hurricanetrack]

Ok- now I understand- the swath is farther down from where I was nearer to the inlet- Hatteras Inlet. I assume Hwy 12 does not go down there but I do not know that for sure. I was at he ferry terminal and areas near there for the hurricane and then made my way up the Outer Banks to KDH. There was a lot of overwash from the sound and the ocean- but no new inlets from the two points I mentioned.

[weatherluvr]

Question, is there a maximum speed before a hurricane falls apart, Alex is a cat 2 traveling at 44 mph ( 1056 miles per day)?

Not really, as long as the wind speeds at all levels are fairly constant, which is very seldom the case as the speeds increase. The '38 hurricane had 120 mph winds, and was moving as fast as 70 mph as it made landfall.

[weatherluvr]

If I remember correctly, last year the remnants of Danny did something similar, moving southward, but it never regained any convection. Just a naked swirl.

[HalloweenGale]

Thats awesome, even for a retired hurricane hunter, I have never seen something so beautiful as that( well except your avatar.)

[Brent]

Thats awesome, even for a retired hurricane hunter, I have never seen something so beautiful as that( well except your avatar.)

There's a satellite picture?

I was too busy drooling over the picture in his avatar.

[Typhoon_Willie]

By the way guys... That is Supermodel Laetitia Casta in the avatar!