92L looks sheared

Derek Ortt · #1 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 4:32 pm

looks like 92L is also starting to feel the shear now as well. WV imagery clearly shows a hair dryer starting to take its toll on the system. System is a TD now, IMO, but may not develop farther

The Dark Knight · #2 Postby **The Dark Knight** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 4:38 pm

We'll see.....

Typhoon_Willie · #3 Postby **Typhoon_Willie** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 4:48 pm

I thought I it would encounter some shear sooner or later...

Derek Ortt · #4 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 4:51 pm

I'll be honest, I see shear for most of the basin right now. This, along with the warning going on the C and EPAC makes me believe that we will not reach the amount of overall activity that has been predicted (though we still may get 2 or 3 more majors, I do not see a zillion storms like we had last year)

The Dark Knight · #5 Postby **The Dark Knight** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 4:55 pm

Well, I'll be looking forward to next year then..... But, then again........ Who knows what could happen...?????

Aquawind · #6 Postby **Aquawind** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 4:59 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:I'll be honest, I see shear for most of the basin right now. This, along with the warning going on the C and EPAC makes me believe that we will not reach the amount of overall activity that has been predicted (though we still may get 2 or 3 more majors, I do not see a zillion storms like we had last year)

CNN would have fired you for that statement..j/k :lol:

True as it may be.. :wink:

Website · #7 Postby **Brent** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 5:04 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:I'll be honest, I see shear for most of the basin right now. This, along with the warning going on the C and EPAC makes me believe that we will not reach the amount of overall activity that has been predicted (though we still may get 2 or 3 more majors, I do not see a zillion storms like we had last year)

EL NINO????????????????!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO HISSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :grr:

#8 Postby **Stormcenter** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 5:08 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:I'll be honest, I see shear for most of the basin right now. This, along with the warning going on the C and EPAC makes me believe that we will not reach the amount of overall activity that has been predicted (though we still may get 2 or 3 more majors, I do not see a zillion storms like we had last year)

It takes guts to make a strong statement like that on August 5th 2004. I hope for your sake it doesn't come back to haunt you. Thanks for the info.

Derek Ortt · #9 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 5:10 pm

I said el ninoish and we will see the number of majors expected, just not the overall # of storms the way I see it. What does develop should take off, but dont expect 16 like last year. Remember, we had that rediculous start, which helped the #s (including 2 MRD storms, 3 if you count Bill)

#10 Postby **LarryWx** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 5:19 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:I'll be honest, I see shear for most of the basin right now. This, along with the warning going on the C and EPAC makes me believe that we will not reach the amount of overall activity that has been predicted (though we still may get 2 or 3 more majors, I do not see a zillion storms like we had last year)

By looking at the maps shown at the following links, my impression is that both the current as well as recent weeks' overall averaged Atlantic basin shear have been near average for the season as opposed to either above or below:

1) Tropical Atlantic:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/gpar ... tatshr.gif

2) Subtropical Atlantic:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/gpar ... satshr.gif

3) Off east coast of U.S.:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/gpar ... ecoshr.gif

4) G.O.M.:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/gpar ... gmxshr.gif

5) W. Caribbean:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/gpar ... wcashr.gif

6) E. Caribbean:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/gpar ... ecashr.gif

The regions are shown here:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/gpar ... _short.gif

My point is that I feel that shear has been and currently is near a neutral factor overall rather than either an enhancing or inhibiting factor based on these maps. Any other opinions about this?

Stormsfury · #11 Postby **Stormsfury** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 5:30 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:I'll be honest, I see shear for most of the basin right now. This, along with the warning going on the C and EPAC makes me believe that we will not reach the amount of overall activity that has been predicted (though we still may get 2 or 3 more majors, I do not see a zillion storms like we had last year)

The funny thing is that this is kinda what I expected ... less storms than last year, the start about right on time, less marginal storms (we'll have to wait and see the final results), and the storms that do develop, develop fairly healthy ...

As for the warming in the C and EPAC ... there's gonna be a bit of a lag time on that ... technically, anyway, the warm conditions (SSTA's) have to average 1ºC ABV for three months to technically be considered an El Niño, anyway ...

We still have plenty of season left ...

SF

Anonymous · #12 Postby **Anonymous** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 5:42 pm

Also seems as if there may be less direct hurricane landfalls on the Eastern seaboard because of a stronger than usual trough expected in the East for another 2 weeks. This means most storms would tend to either remain far to the south or recurve out to sea, like Fabian last year. IF this pattern remains through October, then the chances of major landfalls aren't all that good, unless one slips in between the troughs.

rainstorm · #13 Postby **rainstorm** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 5:47 pm

could be the 5th straight year without a major hit. shear does seem to be on the increase everywhere. look for ull,s to develop this season north of 25

#14 Postby **LarryWx** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 6:04 pm

All this shear talk gets me wondering if shear should be considered "evil". I mean shear seems to be about as hated here as much as I hate bananas. That's saying a lot, believe me! :lol:

rainstorm · #15 Postby **rainstorm** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 6:22 pm

not evil, just unwelcome

Derek Ortt · #16 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 6:38 pm

Very interesting that no model is depicting TC formation anymore through 6 days. Even the TC happy GFS is not predicting a cyclone. Looks like we are going into a lull period now. This has happened the last 2 years. After Bertha and Claudette in 2 days, we went about 25 beore Dolly formed and last year after Danny, we went about a month before Erika (and even longer before Fabian). So, it is entirely possible that we wont see anything of any significance until the end of the month.

However, it only takes 1. Just ask the people of the Outer banks right now about that

#17 Postby **LarryWx** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 6:46 pm

rainstorm wrote:not evil, just unwelcome

I think you're being too kind. To me WNW flow is only unwelcome, but shear is just plain evil. It stinks, plain and simple. I think it should be banned from this planet. :lol:

#18 Postby **LarryWx** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 6:48 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:Very interesting that no model is depicting TC formation anymore through 6 days. Even the TC happy GFS is not predicting a cyclone. Looks like we are going into a lull period now.

Don't forget that we are in a dry phase of the MJO for what that is worth. Maybe we will need to wait til the wet phase begins?

MJO:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/g ... thly_1.gif

Thunder44 · #19 Postby **Thunder44** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 8:40 pm

So am I now starting to hear doubts of an over active season from the "experts"?

The Dark Knight · #20 Postby **The Dark Knight** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 8:46 pm

I think so........

92L looks sheared

92L looks sheared

Strong statement

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