92L looks sheared

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jlauderdal
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#21 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Aug 05, 2004 8:50 pm

Thunder44 wrote:So am I now starting to hear doubts of an over active season from the "experts"?


a weeks worth the weather does not make a season...we go through this every year early on.
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MGC
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#22 Postby MGC » Thu Aug 05, 2004 9:30 pm

Well I for one am not surprised at the central Pacific warming. I forecast a developing El Nino towards the end of the season. I did forecast near opitium conditions during August and September. We are one week into August, had our first major and people are ready to write off 2004. Get real...........MGC
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#23 Postby rainstorm » Thu Aug 05, 2004 9:55 pm

normally you are perfect, mgc, but there is alot of shear out there .
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Re: 92L looks sheared

#24 Postby wxman57 » Thu Aug 05, 2004 10:31 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:looks like 92L is also starting to feel the shear now as well. WV imagery clearly shows a hair dryer starting to take its toll on the system. System is a TD now, IMO, but may not develop farther


Derek, what evidence do you have that this system has a well-defined LLC? I see no evidence in any QuickSCAT image or surface observations, and visible satellite didn't reveal anything today. Looks just like a sheared tropical wave interacting with a moderately strong upper-level low that is located over SW Haiti.
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#25 Postby Matthew5 » Thu Aug 05, 2004 10:45 pm

Wxman57 thats 91L that is south of Hati, in it is very much a tropical wave. Derek is talking about 92L... Around 40 something west. It looks to be some what organized but there is high shear with dry air. We will have to see if it can live through that!
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#26 Postby wxman57 » Thu Aug 05, 2004 10:57 pm

Matthew5 wrote:Wxman57 thats 91L that is south of Hati, in it is very much a tropical wave. Derek is talking about 92L... Around 40 something west. It looks to be some what organized but there is high shear with dry air. We will have to see if it can live through that!


Oops, my mistake. I did notice a nice swirl out there today, but the convection died off this evening. I did think it was strange that Derek could see a circulation in that sheard blob of storms south of the DR. :wink:

By the way, it looks like 92L was developing convection for the same reason 91L was - interaction with the SE quadrant of an upper low. 92L moved west of the upper low axis and the convection died off.
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