Here is why Dr Gray downgrades numbers

[cycloneye]

Here is the most important part of the whole report that I extracted about the factors in favor and against an active season:

6 Discussion
This is a difficult forecast. There are currently mixed climate signals which cause our full-season 2004 forecast to indicate above-average activity, while the sum of our three monthly forecasts indicates below-average activity. The Atlantic Ocean signals look very favorable for an active year; whereas, the Pacific Ocean signals indicate a suppressed season.


June and July changes in a number of climate signals and their influence on our individual monthly forecasts have led us to make a downward revision of our 2 April and 28 May forecasts by one storm number for named storms and hurricanes. We have also reduced our forecasts of the number of days that tropical cyclones will exist in the Atlantic, and we have consequently reduced our NTC value 20 points from 145 to 125. Several of the factors currently observed that lead us to believe that there will be enhanced hurricane activity in 2004 are as follows:


Warm Atlantic SSTAs

Below average SLPA in the Tropical Atlantic

West-phase QBO

Low equatorial 200 mb Geopotential Heights

Persistence of favorable conditions associated with the active Atlantic Multidecadal Mode and a strong Atlantic thermohaline circulation


Factors currently observed that lead us to believe that Atlantic hurricane activity in 2004 will be reduced are as follows:




Enhancement of warm ENSO conditions - especially in the Nino 4 and Nino 3.4 regions

Stronger-than-average trade winds across the equatorial Atlantic - resulting in generally increased wind shear across the main development region

Strong 200 mb easterly anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific - typically associated with warm ENSO conditions and reduced Atlantic seasonal activity


Consequently, based on these mixed climate signals, we are reducing our forecast somewhat from our early April and late May updates; however, we are not reducing the forecasts as much as suggested by the sum of our monthly forecasts.

If you want to read the whole report here is the link below

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/fo ... 4/aug2004/


Any comments about his downward forecast are welcomed.

[rainstorm]

sounds disappointing. el nino trumps everything and i now think we have to look for upper lows and old fronts fro development. my guess is the rest of the season will be 7/4/1

[cycloneye]

As he says a weak el nino will not be a big factor during the rest of the season.The majority of the factors as the doc points out are in favor of an active season but not as active as 2003.Now let's see what he does in the september outlook to see if he continues to downgrade the numbers.

[rainstorm]

he has a sept outlook too? we should definitly know by then. as he says, the waves are moving way too fast as well.

[cycloneye]

September 3 the next outlook.

[cycloneye]

I dont think the doc factored in Alex in his outlook as forming because the report was made already but I am not 100% sure.

[Derecho]

sounds disappointing. el nino trumps everything and i now think we have to look for upper lows and old fronts fro development. my guess is the rest of the season will be 7/4/1

ROFL. Classic.

[Trader Ron]

Rainstorm...You might be a tad high.lol..j/k.

[Derek Ortt]

we only had a weak nino is 2002 and it really capped development, imiting the atlantic to just 4 canes

[cycloneye]

I dont think at all that the season will be capped as there are more factors in favor that against an active season as Dr Gray says.

[Brent]

sounds disappointing. el nino trumps everything and i now think we have to look for upper lows and old fronts fro development. my guess is the rest of the season will be 7/4/1

ROFL! You said the same thing about ULL and cold front's last year.

Isabel was a really powerful ULL eh?

[Trader Ron]

Rainstorm makes some great observations.

It's funny, people don't go after "Reckless" statements, like we will be "Inundated" and The "Flood Gates" will open in the coming weeks. This was in July!..

[Hyperstorm]

A reason for the downgrade? Yeah, I believe so.

This is the same strategy Dr. Gray uses ALMOST EVERY single year. Since 1995, you can barely count the number of times he has kept his initial forecast the same and/or raise the numbers in the August update. This is done only to be proven otherwise when the season ends.

Here's what I mean, since 1995 almost every season gets the numbers lowered in the August update and we end up having more activity than what he had even predicted at the beginning of the forecast. In VERY rare times, is his final forecast over what we have for the year. Just wait and you'll see.

Just as Derecho said, there's still plenty of time left in the season, so we can easily reach the numbers he originally predicted or "more", even if we stay in a quiet period for a few weeks.

[Guest]

This sounds exactly like what I said a few days ago in my thread WHAT DOES ALEX AND TD 2 MEAN?

Here is the most important part of the whole report that I extracted about the factors in favor and against an active season:

6 Discussion
This is a difficult forecast. There are currently mixed climate signals which cause our full-season 2004 forecast to indicate above-average activity, while the sum of our three monthly forecasts indicates below-average activity. The Atlantic Ocean signals look very favorable for an active year; whereas, the Pacific Ocean signals indicate a suppressed season.


June and July changes in a number of climate signals and their influence on our individual monthly forecasts have led us to make a downward revision of our 2 April and 28 May forecasts by one storm number for named storms and hurricanes. We have also reduced our forecasts of the number of days that tropical cyclones will exist in the Atlantic, and we have consequently reduced our NTC value 20 points from 145 to 125. Several of the factors currently observed that lead us to believe that there will be enhanced hurricane activity in 2004 are as follows:


Warm Atlantic SSTAs

Below average SLPA in the Tropical Atlantic

West-phase QBO

Low equatorial 200 mb Geopotential Heights

Persistence of favorable conditions associated with the active Atlantic Multidecadal Mode and a strong Atlantic thermohaline circulation


Factors currently observed that lead us to believe that Atlantic hurricane activity in 2004 will be reduced are as follows:

Enhancement of warm ENSO conditions - especially in the Nino 4 and Nino 3.4 regions

Stronger-than-average trade winds across the equatorial Atlantic - resulting in generally increased wind shear across the main development region

Strong 200 mb easterly anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific - typically associated with warm ENSO conditions and reduced Atlantic seasonal activity

Consequently, based on these mixed climate signals, we are reducing our forecast somewhat from our early April and late May updates; however, we are not reducing the forecasts as much as suggested by the sum of our monthly forecasts.

If you want to read the whole report here is the link below

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/fo ... 4/aug2004/


Any comments about his downward forecast are welcomed.

[Stormsfury]

Sounds a lot like some concerns I had Last December ...

The OVERALL signals still suggest an above average season, and remember, right now we are in a DRY MJO phase ...

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Trop ... gDisc.html

[Brent]

Sounds a lot like some concerns I had Last December ...

The OVERALL signals still suggest an above average season, and remember, right now we are in a DRY MJO phase ...

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Trop ... gDisc.html

Any sign of a wet MJO anytime soon?

[Guest]

he has a sept outlook too? we should definitly know by then. as he says, the waves are moving way too fast as well.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 935 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR SATURDAY. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST ABOUT 15 MPH.

Apparently the waves have slowed down a bit which goes to show that what you saw yesterday may not neccessarily be the case the next day so please stop with your nowcasting & look ahead @ possible changes that may occur.The same can be said for troughs, etc...!!!

[MGC]

Quit worrying about the phase of the MJO. The last couple of season have proven to have development during either phase. Alex just formed during a dry phase. I don't think an El Nino will effect the season until October. Like Dr Gray indicated, the strength of the trade winds will be a large negative. We have witnessed a progression of waves raceing along that have looked promicing unable to close off a circulation due to their brisk forward speed.....MGC

[rainstorm]

he has a sept outlook too? we should definitly know by then. as he says, the waves are moving way too fast as well.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 935 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR SATURDAY. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST ABOUT 15 MPH.

Apparently the waves have slowed down a bit which goes to show that what you saw yesterday may not neccessarily be the case the next day so please stop with your nowcasting & look ahead @ possible changes that may occur.The same can be said for troughs, etc...!!!

it is north of the zooming conveyor belt at 15 n. if they get north of 15 they will slow down, however that also makes it likely they will recurve. no sign of the trough leaving in august. and they also mention the massive shear in the atlantic now. derek is right, not many canes likely if the waves in the deep tropics are moving at 20+

[Brent]

it is north of the zooming conveyor belt at 15 n. if they get north of 15 they will slow down, however that also makes it likely they will recurve. no sign of the trough leaving in august. and they also mention the massive shear in the atlantic now. derek is right, not many canes likely if the waves in the deep tropics are moving at 20+

TROLL.

Georges in 1998 was moving at 20 mph and developed just fine. This one is moving at 15 mph and is in good shape(minus shear and dry air). Also, the models take it WSW to SW towards Puerto Rico by 4-5 days. That certainly doesn't look like a recurving system(although it could still later).