Bonnie Advisories

[Skywatch_NC]

It's not a TD2 at the present time.

Eric

[Matthew5]

Watch that upper low move to the southwest!

[HouTXmetro]

Watch that upper low move to the southwest!

Where is the upper Low?

[Matthew5]

18 north/79 west moving slowly west or west-southwest which is causing the shear. The models forecast this to move southwest while the wave develops a low pressure area. over time as it moves into the Gulf it will (By the GFS) Form a upper high over it? It is something to watch.

[HURAKAN]

I think what is left of TD 2 will travel to the GOM and will become part of the low that I believe will form as the decaying front stalls over the GOM.

[SouthFLTropics]

My eyes may be playing tricks on my but it seems on WV imagery that the shear that has plagued former TD2 may be starting to relax a bit. I am just a novice here but maybe this is a sign of things to come. Could this possibly be due to an ULL moving southwest away from former TD2? Any response is appreciated.

SouthFLTropics

[NorthGaWeather]

The shear is decreasing ahead of the wave.

[dixiebreeze]

Sure looks that way -- pretty much as NHC has forecast.

[c5Camille]

it has relaxed... but as of yet... i can't seem to find
anything building in the area... no orginazation what
so ever.

anyone else see anything of interest here yet?

[Dean4Storms]

All I can make out is a couple of weak vortices probably at mid-level. One south of Jamaica with new convection. I wouldn't expect any deep concentrated convection till either late tonight or more likely tomorrow at the earliest as the shear relaxes. Only once this takes places can we look for a surface low to deepen and maybe begin to try and close off.

[dixiebreeze]

NHC discussion:

STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF T.D. TWO...IS MOVING INTO
THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 77W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. A SHARP
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF IS LOCATED JUST TO THE W OF THE WAVE...
MOVING W IN TANDEM...AND IS PROVIDING 20-30 KT OF WLY SHEAR OVER
THE AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRONG WINDS CUTTING
ACROSS THE WAVE WITH MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HELD BACK
OFF THE S COAST OF HAITI AND APPROACHING E JAMAICA. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 71W-77W. 3-5" OF
RAIN ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE SRN PENINSULA OF HAITI...
JAMAICA...AND E CUBA AS THE WAVE MOVES W.

[Steve H.]

There appears to be a circulation to the south of the western tip of Haiti, moving NW.

[c5Camille]

yeah... looks like there are a few...
the one you see around 75.0 / 18.5
one around 77.0 / 20.0 and 77.0 / 16.0

[caneman]

STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF T.D. TWO...IS MOVING INTO
THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 77W/78W S OF 21N MOVING W 15 KT. THE
SYSTEM HAS SLOWED SOME SINCE YESTERDAY WHICH HAS INCREASED THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN OVER HAITI... JAMAICA... AND E CUBA WITH
3-5" OF RAIN POSSIBLE. BROAD ROTATION IS NOTED IN MID-LEVELS A
COUPLE HUNDRED MILES S OF JAMAICA. UPPER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THE
WEEKEND AND THE WAVE WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR SIGNS OF
DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 14.5N-20N BETWEEN HAITI AND CAYMAN BRAC.

[caneman]

And more - ULL moving away quickly.

CARIBBEAN...
SHARP UPPER TROF/ELONGATED LOW EXTENDS FROM JAMAICA TO NE
NICARAGUA MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT. TROUGH IS MOVING IN TANDEM WITH
DISTURBANCE S OF JAMAICA... KEEPING SHEAR CONDITIONS PRESENT...
BUT IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE WESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND MOISTURE TO THE E OF THE TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES W OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO E CUBA. UPPER RIDGE IS FORMING OVER
NW COLOMBIA AND IS TRYING TO BUILD NORTHWARD TO W HAITI BEHIND
THE WESTWARD-MOVING UPPER LOW. DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR IS
FLOWING INTO THE E CARIBBEAN ISLANDS... KEEPING A LID ON ANY
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

[HURAKAN]

Like you said, it sounds promising, and now with a broad mid-level circulation, we will have to see if thunderstorms can redevelop and help the system get down to the surface. Shear continues to play a critical role and if it diminishes life will be easier for our X-TD.

[Nimbus]

At sunset you could see what looks like a very sheared low level center on the visible satellite loop at about 15N. Looks like the center has been following the BAMS model and should fire up a little further south tomorrow after the shear rolls west.

[rbaker]

agree, that ull is moving sw, and as alot times, a ridge is to the east building, as the ull and dry slot is dimishes. Believe this still has potential

[The Dark Knight]

I agree....

[SouthFLTropics]

It appears that ex TD2 has finally fallen prey to the old nasty shear. It was fun while it lasted but I think we have heard the last from TD2. On another note, it appears that 92L is still getting the you know what kicked out of it by the shear, plus it seems to be moving on up and out with the fish. I guess it is time to start watching the coast of Africa again!!!