AFD Mobile, AL GOM to get interesting.........

[Dean4Storms]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 060958
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
445 AM CDT FRI AUG 06 2004

.SHORT TERM...AT 05Z SFC FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM JUST NORTH OF MGM TO
MEI WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH OVER
THE IMMEDIATE GULF WATERS WITHIN 20 NM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF WHERE THE WARMER SFC TEMPS ARE
PRESENT. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS PUSH THIS UNSEASONABLE COLD FRONT
WELL OFF THE COAST BY EARLY SAT GIVING WAY TO LESS HUMIDITY AND
GENERALLY A NORTHERLY WIND FLOW THROUGH EARLY SAT. WITH THIS COULD
SEE SOME RECORD LOWS BY SAT MORNING. LATEST MOS GUIDANCE FOR ALL
MODELS DO SHOW SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN EARLIER EXPECTED...SO
MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO TODAY HIGHS MOSTLY. BY SAT AN EASTERLY
WIND FLOW DEVELOPS POSSIBLY BECOMING SOUTHEAST NEAR THE COAST AND
INLAND FOR A SHORT PERIOD BY LATE SAT AFT.

BY SAT NIGHT MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POSITION OF THE FRONT OVER THE
GULF...WITH THE ETA SOLUTION STALLING THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF BY THIS TIME...THEN DEVELOPING A WEAK LOW AT THE SFC ALONG THE
FRONT...MOVING WEST TOWARDS THE LA COAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. WITH WATER TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 CONDITIONS
COULD BECOME INTERESTING WITH THIS PATTERN. THE GFS SOLUTION HAS A
SIMILAR PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND THOUGH PUSHES THE FRONT FURTHER
SOUTH INTRODUCING A SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BY EARLY TUE. THIS
CIRCULATION APPEARS TO DEVELOP FROM AN OPEN TROP WAVE MOVING FROM
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF MON NIGHT.

&&

.EXTENDED...RETURN FLOW AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES CAN BE EXPECTED BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING...WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEAR THE COAST
THIS AFT THEN BECOMING NORTHEAST AND INCREASING LATER TONIGHT
CONTINUING THROUGH LATE SAT MORNING. LATEST ETA SOLUTION DEPICTS A
GOOD SE FLOW BY EARLY SAT AFT THOUGH BELIEVE THIS COULD BE OVERDONE
SLIGHTLY DUE TO A SFC LOW DEVELOPING QUICKLY ALONG THE STALL FRONT
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF.

[WXBUFFJIM]

This is the exact scenario I was pointing out since last night and I'm worried about this too. With water temps between 88 and 90 degrees and a strong surface front in this vicinity, that could mean major trouble in the west central Gulf Of Mexico should a strong tropical low develop. I see Mobile mentioned a weak surface low along the front, which this time of year is a real attention getter since that thing could morph real quickly into a tropical entity.

We'll definitely wait and see. However my suggestion to folks along the entire Gulf coast is keep an eye on the GOM this weekend because this is a dangerous place to see tropical development, especially given the type of pattern we're getting into now.

Jim

[GalvestonDuck]

Okay, my little non-met brain is confused. I thought certain things kept storms away (shear, high pressure, cold fronts). Obviously, I misunderstood about cold fronts.

So, now, if I'm getting this straight (and in layman's terms) -- cold-fronts are BAD because when they move out over the warm water, a system can develop. Is that right?

What about a system that is already moving TOWARDS the front (let's say one in the central GOM moving NW towards the TX coast while there's a cold front across the TX coast)? Doesn't it actually steer it away...or was I totally misunderstanding that or maybe I read something that someone previously said but that was wrong and I took it as fact.

Thanks!

[c5Camille]

this "cold front" is actually stalling...
that makes it a "stationary front"
stationary and retreating "cold fronts"
are very cunducive for development

this place could BLOW!!!

[rainstorm]

depends on how far into the gom it gets. if the low forms close to the coast, a weak, at best ts may form. i would also expect this feature to be open on the west side, rather lopsided. we will see

[Dan]

Okay, my little non-met brain is confused. I thought certain things kept storms away (shear, high pressure, cold fronts). Obviously, I misunderstood about cold fronts.

So, now, if I'm getting this straight (and in layman's terms) -- cold-fronts are BAD because when they move out over the warm water, a system can develop. Is that right?

What about a system that is already moving TOWARDS the front (let's say one in the central GOM moving NW towards the TX coast while there's a cold front across the TX coast)? Doesn't it actually steer it away...or was I totally misunderstanding that or maybe I read something that someone previously said but that was wrong and I took it as fact.

Thanks!

Let me explain this to you in easier terms...

When cold fronts stall in the Gulf of Mexico (which is currently taking place), they usually tend to develop low pressure due to all the increased convection over the warm gulf waters. These low pressure systems become tropical in nature. The process in which this usually occurs is not of a quick nature. Most times when this scenario occurs, it usually takes at least a 3-5 day time period, and sometimes longer.

I don't think we should expecting any kind of low pressure to develop until Monday at the earliest. If I was putting money on something, it may be the former TD #2 surviving the shear in the Caribbean and making it into the Gulf on Monday.

[Rainband]

I agree Dan. Our Mets here are watching it I guess I will be eating crow all season.

[southerngale]

What about a system that is already moving TOWARDS the front (let's say one in the central GOM moving NW towards the TX coast while there's a cold front across the TX coast)? Doesn't it actually steer it away...or was I totally misunderstanding that or maybe I read something that someone previously said but that was wrong and I took it as fact.

Thanks!

Your other question was already answered. Someone else can probably explain it in better terms, but yes, cold fronts coming down would steer an existing tropical system away. Let's say there's a TS in the GOM and a cold front is coming down towards us here in SE Texas, if the TS was headed in this general direction, it would likely turn more easterly toward the central GOM or Florida. This is why Texas' season is pretty much non-existent in October and November...too many fronts coming down.

Anyone feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.

[Aquawind]

1:35pm Tamps NWS..

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SUN)...MAIN PLAYER FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
WILL BE FRONTAL ZONE JUST TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE NATURE COAST INTO
THE CENTRAL FA...THEN SLIDE FURTHER SOUTH SATURDAY BEFORE
STALLING FROM ROUGHLY SEBRING TO VENICE. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE...ALLOWING FOR NUMEROUS DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS
IN ITS VICINITY. THE FRONT WILL TRY TO SHIFT BACK NORTH ON SUNDAY. I
WENT FOR A COMPROMISE POSITION BETWEEN THE ETA AND GFS.THE NATURE COAST HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...SO POPS WILL BE LOWER IN THE NORTH.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER EACH AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (SUN NIGHT - FRI)...SURFACE TROUGHINESS ACROSS FL WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE STATE. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD SOME ON
TUE AND WED AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND
INTO THE GULF WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN...THANKS TO A SERIES
OF SHORE WAVE TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF A LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE SURFACE TROUGH...FOLLOWED EASTERLY
FLOW...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN...AND THEN THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL
KEEP DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH SCATTERED POPS IN THE AFTERNOONS
AND ISOLATED MORNING AND EARLY EVENING. AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
EARLY IN THE WEEK GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO SOUTHERLY AND THEN SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY CLOSE TO CLIMO.


Miami NWS 1:45pm..Simliar thinking..busy frontal action for the gulf coast..


THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND...AS THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY. SO PLAN ON LEAVING NUMEROUS ACTIVITY
OVER MOST OF THE CWA FOR SATURDAY...THEN NUMEROUS OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA TO SCATTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA ON SUNDAY.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...THE COLD FRONT WILL GET PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEAST
US EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK OF SOUTH FLORIDA...AND
PUSH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA.

THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN GET PUSH SOUTH AGAIN LATE NEXT
WEEK...AS ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN
US. SO SOUTH FLORIDA WILL GET BACK INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY LATE NEXT WEEK.

[tracyswfla]

Looks like a wet weekend and week ahead!

000
FXUS62 KTBW 061735
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
135 PM EDT FRI AUG 6 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SUN)...MAIN PLAYER FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
WILL BE FRONTAL ZONE JUST TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE NATURE COAST INTO
THE CENTRAL FA...THEN SLIDE FURTHER SOUTH SATURDAY BEFORE
STALLING FROM ROUGHLY SEBRING TO VENICE. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE...ALLOWING FOR NUMEROUS DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS
IN ITS VICINITY. THE FRONT WILL TRY TO SHIFT BACK NORTH ON SUNDAY. I
WENT FOR A COMPROMISE POSITION BETWEEN THE ETA AND GFS.

THE NATURE COAST HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...SO POPS WILL BE LOWER IN THE NORTH.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER EACH AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (SUN NIGHT - FRI)...SURFACE TROUGHINESS ACROSS FL WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE STATE. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD SOME ON
TUE AND WED AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND
INTO THE GULF WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN...THANKS TO A SERIES
OF SHORE WAVE TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF A LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE SURFACE TROUGH...FOLLOWED EASTERLY
FLOW...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN...AND THEN THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL
KEEP DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH SCATTERED POPS IN THE AFTERNOONSAND ISOLATED MORNING AND EARLY EVENING. AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
EARLY IN THE WEEK GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO SOUTHERLY AND THEN SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY CLOSE TO CLIMO.

&&

.MARINE...BOATING WEATHER WILL VARY QUITE A BIT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
TOMORROW AS DECENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG THE
NATURE COAST WILL TRANSITION TO LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS IN THE
SOUTHWEST. AS FRONT TRIES TO MOVE BACK NORTH ON SUNDAY...WEAKENING
AS IT GOES...WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

&&


.

[GalvestonDuck]

Thanks, Dan and Kelly! So I did understand correctly to a point.

[ColdFront77]

Yes, Duck, you did understand it correctly to a point.

As was answered... Cold frontal troughs steer tropical activity away the area where the front is/the trough is moving through.

It's the surface lows that develop on the boundary that oftentimes become stationary at these southern latitudes may spin up
tropical cyclones, especially with water temperatures between 85 and 90 degrees.

[GalvestonDuck]

Thanks, Tom.

See...this is why I just LOVE you guys! Great explanations instead of "Well...duh! If you don't understand weather, why are you here"-types of answers.

*snickers*
And of course, it makes sense that "ColdFront" would explain cold fronts to me.

[rainstorm]

the problem is, if another front comes down, that will end any development chances as shear will greatly increase ahead of the trough

[Stormcenter]

the problem is, if another front comes down, that will end any development chances as shear will greatly increase ahead of the trough

Whatever develops in the GOM, if anything, will happen way before the next trough (front) comes down, if it does.
IMO

[c5Camille]

i conquer

[rainstorm]

the problem is, if another front comes down, that will end any development chances as shear will greatly increase ahead of the trough

Whatever develops in the GOM, if anything, will happen way before the next trough (front) comes down, if it does.
IMO

old fronts take awhile to develop, thats why they are called "old", hehe. anything can happen, but its hard for homegrown development to occur in a progressive pattern. lets see how pwerful the next front is and how far south it gets

[Stormcenter]

the problem is, if another front comes down, that will end any development chances as shear will greatly increase ahead of the trough

Whatever develops in the GOM, if anything, will happen way before the next trough (front) comes down, if it does.
IMO

old fronts take awhile to develop, thats why they are called "old", hehe. anything can happen, but its hard for homegrown development to occur in a progressive pattern. lets see how pwerful the next front is and how far south it gets

I understand your point but I think this MAY be the exception to the rule especially with remains of TD#2 possibly in the mix.
Hey at least the weekend may be interesting.

[c5Camille]

IMO the next front to get this far south won't
arrive until mid September... that would give
this front plenty of time to get old....

IMO

[rainstorm]

IMO the next front to get this far south won't
arrive until mid September... that would give
this front plenty of time to get old....

IMO

that would certainly be the case