They are already talking about issuing a FFW
107
fxus62 ktbw 080722
afdtbw
West central and southwest Florida forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay area - Ruskin Florida
322 am EDT sun Aug 8 2004
Short term (today - tue)...after a real soaking yesterday along and
just north of the boundary which settled somewhere from Manatee to
Highlands County...it looks like another round of locally heavy
rainfall again today as boundary inches north with weak low pressure
waves along it. Already as I write...banded tropical showers are
dumping from coastal Manatee north-northeast into southern Hillsborough and lower
Tampa Bay. At the same time...showers/tstms lining up and moving west
from North Brevard into lake Colorado. Convergence may maximum out in
between...not too far from where it did Saturday afternoon.
With boundary looking to inch northward today expect the area of
numerous thunderstorms to move north as well...likely reaching into the
southern nature coast (hernando and perhaps citrus) cos. Expect
initial afternoon activity to really fire over interior counties then
backup toward the coast as it did Saturday. Current data suggest
this line would be farther north than Saturday...but old boundaries and
mesoscale lows/wake highs could tip it farther S.
Why is this important? Check the river response in areas that were
pounded Saturday (especially in Pasco co). Should the line form well
north of this area...the threat for flooding would be delayed. Should it
form over the same area(s)...including portions of Hillsborough
County...watch out.
After an evening of more residual light rain we'll have to watch
for more reignition. Where is the question...deepest moisture looks
to shift north but increasing west-southwest flow a bit to the S of the dynamics
could get the East Gulf machine going again. For now am playing a
blend with some coastal activity just about anywhere (sct pops).
For Monday...short wave remains over the central/north zones as does
stripe of highest moisture. Everyone S of Levy should be back into
the soup...and expect the entire north 2/3 of the area to see numerous
showers/thunderstorms with (hopefully) the heaviest band shifting to the
nature coast. Ribbon of moisture shown to shift S on Tuesday with some
low and middle level northwest flow...but too soon to get fancy. Certainly...
with deeper west flow appears the best afternoon precipitation will be inland so
have bumped up chances to the likely range.
Have toyed with rehoisting a Flood Watch for the central coastal
zones...and Polk...since any more rain in several areas will likely
cause minor (and some moderate in low lying locations) flooding.
May stick to short-fused issuances for now...but stay tuned.
Long term (tue night - sat)...the period starts with zonal flow
aloft. Flow then becomes more SW on Thursday as a trough again digs
down over the eastern US and remains in place with shortwaves moving
through the base of the trough through the rest of the period. At the
surface...weak high pressure tries to build over the state but is held
across South Florida as a low pressure trough moves into the deep south
and stalls/dissipates across south Georgia/North Florida. Good moisture values
remain over the area through the period so have kept probability of precipitation in the 40-
50% range with timing more diurnal. Temperatures are near climatology through the
period.
&&
Marine...what a difference 20 miles makes. Solid Small Craft Advisory conds
continue mainly north of Tarpon Springs...while winds/seas in the
central and S zones are substantially less. Will take last look
at buoy winds but see no reason to drop off Small Craft Advisory just yet. Values
should recede this afternoon...but convection could hold gradient
intact...so we'll have to wait and see. Eventually...winds and
seas back off considerably as gradient should quickly drop off in
the north leg...with light winds continuing into Wednesday before perhaps
picking up later in the week as next 500 mb trough approaches.
&&
Fire weather...no concerns. Interestingly...relative humidity in north Levy Colorado may
fall close to 40 percent this afternoon while everyone else is 60 percent
or higher.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 088 076 088 076 / 70 40 60 40
fmy 088 075 090 076 / 70 40 40 30
gif 088 075 089 075 / 80 70 60 40
srq 088 074 088 074 / 70 40 60 40
bkv 088 073 088 073 / 70 40 60 40
Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
Small Craft Advisory this morning for Tarpon Springs to Suwannee
river out to 60 nm.
&&
$$
Short term...bsg
long term....jlc
)
