Development possible near 50W

[Derek Ortt]

The system near 50W, if it can slow down, may very well be a TC before reaching the islands.

Some differences with this system from others:

1. Doesnt appear to have shear in the Carib
2. Has always had a well defined surface circ.
3. Convection has fired over the surface circ


Now, if it can just slow down, I would not be at all surprised to see a depression or a strom form before the islands. If it doesnt slow down, probably just gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall

[chadtm80]

I agree Derek.. Wish we could get the Floater over that.. But thats not an easy task to get done on a Sunday

[Derecho]

Based on the model init it's accelerated by 6 kts (19 to 25 kts) in the last 12 hours.


And the surface circ has seemingly gone to pot both on visible and QS; looked much, much better yesterday....

[Derek Ortt]

not surprised given how much it has accelerated over the last 12h

[Brent]

Slow down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Ola]

There is more convection this morning, but I dont see a llc anymore. It used to be down around 8 or 9 north but convection in that area died since yesterday around the llc and it is no more.

[hurricanetrack]

It seems that these things move super fast until late August and into early September- then, BAM! something happens and they slow down and the lid really comes off- for real.

We shall see if this happens again this year. We've got 6 more hurricanes to go out there between now and November 30- and including 12 more named storms. It CAN happen.

[TerryAlly]

I agree Derek.. Wish we could get the Floater over that.. But thats not an easy task to get done on a Sunday

Until the floater can be repositioned why not build your temporary floater? The logic is in the URL config.

IR - Image
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... =spect.pal

IR - Loop
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10


VIS - Image
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... 10&lon=-50

VIS - Loop
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

[jlauderdal]

Based on the model init it's accelerated by 6 kts (19 to 25 kts) in the last 12 hours.


And the surface circ has seemingly gone to pot both on visible and QS; looked much, much better yesterday....

Thanks for for the good news!!