NHC Models --- intresting
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hurricanemike
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Stormcenter
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What a mess.
What a mess. Oh well my money is Ms/Al coastline.
I think this system is moving faster than the trough/front
coming down.
I think this system is moving faster than the trough/front
coming down.
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BayouVenteux
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At the moment, the NE curve seems quite reasonable, based on the trough position and amplitude over the last couple of weeks. Doesn't seem right for the beginning of the second week of August, but after 3 cool fronts since mid-July and two sub-70 degree nights in a row this weekend, who's to argue!? Certainly not me, until I see evidence to the contrary.
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Andrew '92, Katrina '05, Gustav '08, Isaac '12, Ida '21...and countless other lesser landfalling storms whose names have been eclipsed by "The Big Ones".
Since true intensity is still a question (and remember that the tropical models treat every system as a closed low...even though there is no evidence that either system is closed...although both look much better organzied than this time yesterday)...it's best IMHO to watch for model trends.
If they continue to call for that sharp hook in future runs...then that adds more concern for folks east of New Orleans instead of west....and IF something develops...I would put the 50/50 line (50% chance to the west, 50% to the east) about 100 miles west of New Orleans...mainly owning to uncertanity over how much development takes place.
The more rapid the development...the further east with the track IMHO.
The good news is that we have time to watch both systems. Tomorrow could be an interesting day indeed.
MW
If they continue to call for that sharp hook in future runs...then that adds more concern for folks east of New Orleans instead of west....and IF something develops...I would put the 50/50 line (50% chance to the west, 50% to the east) about 100 miles west of New Orleans...mainly owning to uncertanity over how much development takes place.
The more rapid the development...the further east with the track IMHO.
The good news is that we have time to watch both systems. Tomorrow could be an interesting day indeed.
MW
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BayouVenteux
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Mike, could you elaborate a little on why you think rapid development would take this system in a more easterly direction? Thanks!MWatkins wrote:The more rapid the development...the further east with the track IMHO.
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Andrew '92, Katrina '05, Gustav '08, Isaac '12, Ida '21...and countless other lesser landfalling storms whose names have been eclipsed by "The Big Ones".
BayouVenteux wrote:Mike, could you elaborate a little on why you think rapid development would take this system in a more easterly direction? Thanks!MWatkins wrote:The more rapid the development...the further east with the track IMHO.
Sure...
If the system gets going and is steered in a deeper layer...the flow at 500MB over most of the gulf in 72 hours will be mostly west to east (westerly):
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072m.gif
And by day 4 anything in that layer is heading east:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_096m.gif
However...in the low levels...where a weaker system would exist...the flow is much less well-defined and suggests that anything south of 25N would not be caught up as quickly by the mean-layer trough.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_096m.gif
Couple of things to note:
The 0Z gfs does not develop the gulf system (although remmeber it couldnt initalize Isabel either).
The guidance from the model is that 93L could be a bigger threat to the eastern Gulf/FL.
Good news...we have plenty of time to watch both systems...
MW
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