91L--Exposed LLC on north side of convection?

[rockyman]

Looking at the early visible loops, it looks like an LLC is trying to peek out from under the northern part of the convective blob...which would make sense if the center is heading NW, since the blob appears to be heading west....does anyone else see this?

[Frank P]

From what I can tell using the GOES vis loop, looks like your right on... I estimate the LLC, if it is an LLC, at approximately 22.8 and 87.7, moving off to the WNW or perhaps just north of WNW...

[Derek Ortt]

would make sense as there is some fairly strong NW shear over the system.

With this being the case,r econ by all means should be diverted to the Carib system as that is much more of a threat

[vbhoutex]

would make sense as there is some fairly strong NW shear over the system.

With this being the case,r econ by all means should be diverted to the Carib system as that is much more of a threat

Derek, I presume you mean a threat to develop. I must agree there. If you are referring to a threat for landfall anytime soon, then I would have to disagree, for obvious reasons. I'm not so sure they don't need two recon missions today.

[rockyman]

The exposed LLC makes the sytem a little disorganized...but having an LLC at all is significant because it means that the system might be upgraded shortly

The more northern position of the LLC would also explain why Cancun's winds have not shifted to the NW

What's funny is that the system does not look like it's very sheared...a sheared system looks like a candle flame blowing in the wind...this one just looks like it's "misaligned" with the MLC tilted to the south (maybe because the land mass of the Yucatan is helping to fire convection there).

[c5Camille]

i think we have all seen what a minimal threat can
do in a matter of 3 to 5 hours... if there is a LLC
in the gulf... and it looks like there is... NHC has to
give it priority at this point... by 6pm tonight we
could have absolutly nothing in the GOM... or...
a force to deal with.... in days... not weeks...

just my opinion...

[Stormcenter]

would make sense as there is some fairly strong NW shear over the system.

With this being the case,r econ by all means should be diverted to the Carib system as that is much more of a threat

A threat to who? The recon is still scheduled to go check out the GOM system and they should be. The Carribean system is too close to the South American coastline and is not threatening any land mass. That's not to say that the GOM system is either but it's much closer to land than the 93L.

[vbhoutex]

The exposed LLC makes the sytem a little disorganized...but having an LLC at all is significant because it means that the system might be upgraded shortly

The more northern position of the LLC would also explain why Cancun's winds have not shifted to the NW

What's funny is that the system does not look like it's very sheared...a sheared system looks like a candle flame blowing in the wind...this one just looks like it's "misaligned" with the MLC tilted to the south (maybe because the land mass of the Yucatan is helping to fire convection there).

It is under moderate sheat, thus no candle flame look. How soon is the shear expected to ease?

[Derek Ortt]

93L is affecting land right now; thus, it should get priority. From the sound of it, Barbados and the Windwards are not land. They need a TS warning if this is a TC, whereas the GOm isnt hitting anyone for 3 days

[Thunder44]

I don't the think center is really exposed yet It's just on northern side of the convection. Alex was similar in just before it became a TD. This is probably already a TD.

[*StOrmsPr*]

93L is affecting land right now; thus, it should get priority. From the sound of it, Barbados and the Windwards are not land. They need a TS warning if this is a TC, whereas the GOm isnt hitting anyone for 3 days

Thank you Derek! Barbados and any place where there is some one living should be important .remember in these island live PEOPLE
beside for me the fun of watching the tropics does not reside if the sistem afecting me but some one equal to me a human! besides this thinks is practically over them alredy, though we cant say the same about 91L!!!

[Brent]

Recon SHOULD be in BOTH systems this afternoon. Both are a threat to land(Ex-TD 2 is only 100 miles off the Yucatan and will be affecting SOMEONE this week). Invest 93L is affecting land now, and has more islands in front of it.

[Steve]

>>It is under moderate sheat

I've heard umbrellas aren't very useful in those conditions!



Steve

[NorthGaWeather]

There has been no LLC confirmed and right now the highest gust is 53 MPH. We had about the same weather a few weeks ago in an MCS. To me it looks like a TD and if NHC thinks its that great of a threat they will upgrade.

[MGC]

Yep both systems should get a flight ASAP. I was on Keesler AFB Friday and there were a half dozen hurricane hunter planes on the ramp. Does the HH send a det to the islands any more?.....MGC

[vbhoutex]

>>It is under moderate sheat

I've heard umbrellas aren't very useful in those conditions!



Steve

[c5Camille]

Stormspr wrote

Thank you Derek! Barbados and any place where there is some one living should be important .remember in these island live PEOPLE
beside for me the fun of watching the tropics does not reside if the sistem afecting me but some one equal to me a human! besides this thinks is practically over them alredy, though we cant say the same about 91L!!!



have them send out there own plane...
(i'm Joking.... attitude starting to stem
from world political environment)

[Stormcenter]

93L is affecting land right now; thus, it should get priority. From the sound of it, Barbados and the Windwards are not land. They need a TS warning if this is a TC, whereas the GOm isnt hitting anyone for 3 days

I was referring to the U.S. mainland and was not down playing the fact that it was affecting Barbados. But still we are not talking about a major hurricane here. The most you have there in the Carribean is a tropical storm and maybe not even that. I still believe the GOM sytem is more of a concern at the moment. IMO

[Brent]

>>It is under moderate sheat

I've heard umbrellas aren't very useful in those conditions!



Steve

[NorthGaWeather]

Right now the system looks like a TD. From all the surface obs the winds are 20-25 MPH which is not Tropical storm force. They are experiencing some strong stroms nothing they haven't had before.