Fl Panhandle Mets...

[N2Storms]

1st, let me begin by saying "hello"to all and I really appreciate the informative and introspective posts by all. I lurk and visit everyday, but seldom post (because I don't know squat about Wx). I found it interesting that in our NWS AFD there is nary a mention of 91L. My gut instinct tells me that IF this system were to form it will probably be of more concern to those on the La Coast, say from Cameron to the Big Easy. I'll still watch it, but at this point I'm not concerned at all. Again, hello from Panama City and I look forward to reading all of your posts.

[Rainband]

From the TampaBay AFD

ON ITS FACE...WEDNESDAY'S FCST WOULD BE MORE OF THE SAME. HOWEVER...
THE BIG FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE THE OUTCOME OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS MORNING. FOR NOW...NOT
TOO CONCERNED ABOUT DEVELOPMENT IN THE LONG TERM AS IT WILL RUN
INTO SHEAR FROM HOSTILE W FLOW N OF 26N. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS SAME
SHEAR WILL STEER THE MOISTURE RIGHT BACK TOWARD FLORIDA. HOW THIS
EVOLVES AND WHERE IT ENDS UP WILL DETERMINE WHETHER ANY FLOOD
WATCHES WILL BE NEEDED (ESPECIALLY IF THE NATURE COAST IS IN THE
HEART OF IT). WILL MENTION THE UNCERTAINTY BUT ALSO THE POTENTIAL
FOR INCREASING MINOR/RIVER EFFECTS LATER IN THE WEEK.

.LONG TERM (WED NIGHT-SUN)..UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
THU & FRI WITH A SURFACE LOW/TROUGH NORTH OF THE CWFA...WHICH
ALONG WITH A WEAK RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THE FL STRAITS WILL KEEP A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD SAT & SUN WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVING DOWN THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH SOME DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM
THE NORTH AS WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHEAST AND EAST. HOWEVER A TROPICAL
WAVE MOVING BY...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE WILL HELP
TO OFFSET THE DRIER AIR WITH POPS REMAINING IN THE SCT RANGE. TEMPS
TO STAY GENERALLY NEAR CLIMO BUT COOL 1-2 DEGREES IN THE NORTH FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...LAST GASP OF 10-15 KT E WINDS STILL AFFECTING THE
NORTHERNMOST WATERS...OTHERWISE CONDITIONS ARE QUIET AND WILL
REMAIN SO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THAT WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE WED
AND PERHAPS EVEN MORE THU AND FRI AS ANOTHER SFC LOW/TROUGH DEVELOPS
IN THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THUS FAR...LOOKS LIKE NOTHING MORE THAN 10-15
KT BUT WILL MONITOR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 088 076 088 077 / 60 30 60 30
FMY 090 076 091 076 / 40 20 40 20
GIF 089 075 089 075 / 70 30 60 30
SRQ 088 075 088 077 / 40 20 40 20
BKV 087 073 087 073 / 80 50 70 40

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BSG
LONG TERM....RKR

[Anonymous]

I would not write this system off for Panama City especially with model showing this IF this develops....

http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/91LMDL01.html

http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/91LMDL02.html

http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/91LMDL03.html

Intensity forecast....

http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/91LINTFRC.html

[TonyPFN]

Hi N2Storms,

I also was surprised that there was no mention of this system in the TLH AFD. Maybe they will have somethng in their afternoon update. Just a FYI, the GFDL, for what it is worth, is taking this system into Bay County as a Cat 1. Those Hurricane Alley links are great !!!! Here are a couple more:

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_91.gif

http://www5.wright-weather.com/data/wxp ... t_atcf.gif

On the second one it shows both 91L and 93L.

Hope you enjoy them !!

Tony

[Lindaloo]

Welcome to S2K N2storms!!

[Rainband]

Welcome and Enjoy!!!