91L--Getting ready to takeoff?

[rockyman]

OK...first we determined that the LLC was NOT in the middle of that nice round ball of convection...but was actually on the northern edge of it

Then we determined that the LLC was moving NW just like expected

Now we see the nice little ball of convection bulging to the NE (over the LLC) while more heavy convection erupts to the northeast of the LLC and is curving around the LLC.

This sounds like a tropical cyclone to me...Either a TD or possibly a minimal TS

Plus...I believe that the storm will begin to expand in size today...which will help the LLC from "collapsing" under slightly less favorable conditions.

[Stormcenter]

OK...first we determined that the LLC was NOT in the middle of that nice round ball of convection...but was actually on the northern edge of it

Then we determined that the LLC was moving NW just like expected

Now we see the nice little ball of convection bulging to the NE (over the LLC) while more heavy convection erupts to the northeast of the LLC and is curving around the LLC.

This sounds like a tropical cyclone to me...Either a TD or possibly a minimal TS

Plus...I believe that the storm will begin to expand in size today...which will help the LLC from "collapsing" under slightly less favorable conditions.

Good post!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Hyperstorm]

OK...first we determined that the LLC was NOT in the middle of that nice round ball of convection...but was actually on the northern edge of it

OK. First, the LLC WAS in the middle of the "nice round ball of convection", but has since been exposed due to recent Northerly shear.

Then we determined that the LLC was moving NW just like expected

It has been moving NW since it was west of Jamaica.

Now we see the nice little ball of convection bulging to the NE (over the LLC) while more heavy convection erupts to the northeast of the LLC and is curving around the LLC.

The convection building to the NE will NOT wrap around the cyclone because it is being impeded by Northerly shear.

This sounds like a tropical cyclone to me...Either a TD or possibly a minimal TS

You're right. The system does indeed present the characteristics of at LEAST a tropical depression, although one could not rule out the possibility of recon finding some TS force winds in a squall.

Plus...I believe that the storm will begin to expand in size today...which will help the LLC from "collapsing" under slightly less favorable conditions.

I don't know exactly what makes you think that, but the system doesn't look to expand in size anytime soon as it has always been a relatively tiny system with now a REALLY tiny LLC. In any case, it should be a classified entity later today.

[Brent]

Good post. Defintely think it will be either TD 2 or Bonnie(if 93L doesn't develop first) later today.

[Pileus]

TD2 is cleared for takeoff on runway 91L

[Hyperstorm]

Great post as well! Didn't mean to sound picky, but wanted to clarify 2 points in your post....The one about the LLC, which JUST in the past few hours got exposed, NOT before that....and the curving of convection that's NOT going to happen anytime soon due to the Northerly shear.