Recon to find TD in GOM this afternoon.

[MGC]

I feel confident that recon will find a tropical depression this afternoon in the southern GOM. System is rather small. Looks to be tracking W to WNW. Still not sold on the models and a Florida landfall.....MGC

[bfez1]

Here comes, Bonnie!

[Rainband]

Go Bon Bon I am way more concerned about the potential of 93L than this wimpy system You guys and gals onm the Islands stay safe 51mph wind gust on Barbados

[NorthGaWeather]

wimpy system you say....just let the shear relax some and the wimpy system may be a big concern.

[Rainband]

wimpy system you say....just let the shear relax some and the wimpy system may be a big concern.

compared to the system by the islands it is.

[BayouVenteux]

...I am way more concerned about the potential of 93L than this wimpy system You guys and gals onm the Islands stay safe 51mph wind gust on Barbados

Yes...and I know several people from my area who are on the Carnival Conquest this week, which left out of New Orleans yesterday on its weekly trip to Montego Bay, it's first port of call, on Wednesday. IF this system gets revved and continues in a westerly direction, they may be turning tail west for an abbreviated trip to Cozumel and the Yucatan. Always frustrating after you've dropped that kind of cash and anticipated a vacation for so long.

[NorthGaWeather]

Well the Gulf system is one step closer than the Wave in the islands. The Gulf system has an LLC and right now it looks like the wave in islands may be trying to get one but it needs a little more time.

[Stormcenter]

Go Bon Bon I am way more concerned about the potential of 93L than this wimpy system You guys and gals onm the Islands stay safe 51mph wind gust on Barbados

How many times have we seen a system like 93L fizzle out and then weak looking system like the former TD2 explode in a matter of hours? Don't turn your back on the soon to be named again TD2.

[Brent]

Go Bon Bon I am way more concerned about the potential of 93L than this wimpy system You guys and gals onm the Islands stay safe 51mph wind gust on Barbados

How many times have we seen a system like 93L fizzle out and then weak looking system like the former TD2 explode in a matter of hours? Don't turn your back on the soon to be named again TD2.

Exactly. 93L will be in the zone of death tonight. If it holds together, then yes, this will be a big one.

[MGC]

I'd bet 93L defies the zone of death.....MGC

[Rainband]

I'd bet 93L defies the zone of death.....MGC

Me too

[Lindaloo]

Here comes, Bonnie!

Heads for the hills.

[tallywx]

In terms of defying the Tropical Zone of Death and not at least temporarily dissapating, what was the last forming or weak TS system to cross the islands and do that? I can't remember one since Hurricane Gilbert in 1988...That's it! That's not a very favorable track record.

[tallywx]

Here, let's go through a rundown...

1989 - no storms in E. Carib
1990 - Arthur - fell apart before Jamaica
1991 - no storms
1992 - no storms
1993 - a weakening TS Cindy runs into Hispaniola
1994 - TS Debby - completely falls apart when it was expected to reach Hurricane strength
1995 - no storms
1996 - no storms
1997 - no storms
1998 - no storms
1999 - no storms (except for late season Lenny, which went the other direction)
2000 - TS Helene loses circulation in Eastern Caribbean, doesn't reform until S of Cuba
2001 - 1) Chantal loses circulation in E. Caribbean, then reforms farther west
2) Iris loses circulation in E. Caribbean - reforms between Hispanola and Jamaica
3) Jerry dissipates in E. Caribbean

2002 - 1) Hurricane Isidore loses circulation in E. Carib, reforms south of Jamaica
2) H. Lili - same thing

2003 - Hurricane Claudette - recon. couldn't close off a closed circulation until it had passed Hispanola.

This is not to mention the numerous strong waves that looked great but didn't materialize. HORRIFIC record.

[Rainband]

When was the last time we had a system form off the east coast and not be expected to be more than TS and turn into a major hurricane while scooting NE away from the US.

[tallywx]

Never say never, but climatology is also interesting and important.

[PTrackerLA]

There has got to be a well developed LLC in ex TD 2 right now based on the visible satellite. It looks like it's heading a little more NW too.

[Rainband]

Never say never, but climatology is also interesting and important.

I agree, my point was that with the one system we had this year...It didn't follow any rules.

[Hyperstorm]

About this one (EX-TD2), YES it will likely be classified later today. The system does have all the characteristics of a tropical depression. Building convection, LLC (VERY important), marginally favorable winds, HOT, HOT and did I say HOT waters? I'd worry more about this one initially in the US than our partner in the E. Caribbean.

[BayouVenteux]

Here, let's go through a rundown...

It's outside of the time period that you've used as reference, but I if I recall correctly, Hurricane Carmen, which hit Louisiana in '74, had an an eastern Caribbean formation and held together well as it moved west, strengthening to a hurricane before crossing the Yucatan, then managed to recover upon entering the Gulf.