fxus62 ktbw 091714
afdtbw
West central and southwest Florida forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay area - Ruskin Florida
113 PM EDT Monday Aug 9 2004
Short term (tonight - wed)...frontal boundary to the north will
continue to be focus for some convection overnight and will maintain
a low pop mention ~20% across my northern zones...otherwise sea
breeze driven convection central and southern zones will slowly wind
down after sunset with skies becoming partly cloudy overnight.
On Tuesday the frontal boundary lifts further to the north leaving
weak high pressure across the central and south. Weak gradient will
allow afternoon sea breezes to develop along both coasts...pushing
inland during the afternoon...where the highest probability of precipitation will reside.
Given this have depicted 40% probability of precipitation along the coast trending up to ~60%
interior sections. With a bit more sun expected compared to previous
days...expect day highs to climb to ~90 along the coast and lower 90s
inland.
On Wednesday a similar set up is expected. Weak high pressure across
the south-Central Peninsula will provide a weak flow which will again
support mainly scattered afternoon and early evening sea breeze
driven convection...and have opted again to show highest probability of precipitation inland
areas where the best Sea/Lake breeze boundary interactions should
take place. Beyond this will have to watch an see what the tropical
feature over the southern Gulf decides to do. Latest GFS shows the
remnants of this feature...mainly in the form of a middle level vorticity
maximum and moisture axis getting picked up by the next digging upstream
upper trough...with the moisture possibly impacting our area on
Thursday...so stay tuned.
Long term (wed night - mon)...deep upper level trough moves in
Thursday and will combine with west/southwesterly flow to continue to bring
early showers and thunderstorms along the coast that will move inland later
in the day. May also have some moisture coming in from tropical
system in the southern Gulf as mentioned above...especially along the
nature coast. For Friday subsidence ahead of the next tropical wave/
system currently over the far eastern Caribbean will lower rain chances
over the southern forecast area...so will keep current pop gradient in place. For the
weekend the pop gradient reverses as the moisture associated with the
wave moves over the southern forecast area...and surface flow finally makes a switch to
E/serly. Also looks like the East Coast trough will retreat as an
upper level ridge tries to build in. Have tweaked probability of precipitation a little...but
still in the scattered range. For Monday...will keep probability of precipitation at 40 percent as wave
should be in the central Gulf and let US dry out a bit.
For temperatures will make slight adjustments to account for expected cloud
cover on the different days...but nothing more than a couple of
degrees from climatology.
&&
Marine...a light southeast to southerly wind flow with an onshore
sea breeze component is expected through early Wednesday...becoming
more southwest Thursday into Friday as upper trough and attendant
front moves into the southeastern states. Beyond this things could get quite
interesting as yet another tropical feature moves into the southeastern Gulf.
Seeing that this is still several days away...have not made to many
changes to the wind grids just yet and will need to see what future
model runs do this feature through the rest of the week...otherwise
no highlights expected at this time.
&&
Fire weather...no concerns through Tuesday.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 076 090 078 090/ 30 40 30 40
fmy 076 092 077 091/ 20 40 30 40
gif 075 092 075 091/ 30 60 30 50
srq 075 090 077 089/ 20 40 30 40
bkv 074 090 073 090/ 40 40 30 40
Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...none.
Going to be an interesting next few days for all us GOMERS!!!
