Observations in windwards and SA coast=No west winds

[cycloneye]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/caribm.html

Also pressures are not too low for a system like this so it may take a little longer for it to develop and to do that it has to move away from the SA coast.

[Rainband]

It will have to slow down.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Were jumping the gun here folks...This is far from a sure thing..I say unless it gets some distance from SA there should be maybe a 20% chance of development..This is nothing right now..

[Stormchaser16]

Unfortunately some dont udnerstand that and are already calling it a "strong" TD or even a minimal TS........

[Rainband]

Unfortunately some dont udnerstand that and are already calling it a "strong" TD or even a minimal TS........

And you have never been wrong

[caribepr]

Cycloneye, great link! Always nice to have another one for us, thanks.

[Stormchaser16]

Heh lol........ weve all been wrong a few times...... but unfortunately some are not forecasting it to BECOME a TD/TS they are already CALLING it one.......(see my point?)

SOme of us abuse the privelege of being wrong.... no names mentioned LOL

Off to work now..... hopefully by the time i get done working there will be something to look at lol.....

http://www.playfulpawspetcare.com (have to plug it lol).... great place

[cycloneye]

Cycloneye, great link! Always nice to have another one for us, thanks.

Your welcome and yes I would like to see more links from our neigbor islands apart from this one and Storm carib.com.

[Rainband]

Heh lol........ weve all been wrong a few times...... but unfortunately some are not forecasting it to BECOME a TD/TS they are already CALLING it one.......(see my point?)

SOme of us abuse the privelege of being wrong.... no names mentioned LOL

Off to work now..... hopefully by the time i get done working there will be something to look at lol.....

http://www.playfulpawspetcare.com (have to plug it lol).... great place

I agree it does look inpressive but there is no LLC. I see your point but to untrained eyes it could be mistaken for something it's not. I guess thats where they are coming from.

[Kennethb]

While the spin and outflow look impressive, overall the convection looks disorganized, tending to work its way from the center of the mid-level circulation, similiar to what TD-2 looked like. It is entering the deadzone and is too close to South America. We'll have to wait a few more days.

[Rainband]

While the spin and outflow look impressive, overall the convection looks disorganized, tending to work its way from the center of the mid-level circulation, similiar to what TD-2 looked like. It is entering the deadzone and is too close to South America. We'll have to wait a few more days.

They upgraded it to a TD!!

[tallywx]

While not second guessing my recent post about the deadzone, I think this system has a lot more mid-level vigor than ex-TD2. For one thing, the thunderstorm winds that have worked down to the surface have been more tremendous (+50 MPH in Barbados). This could be one of those E. Caribbean storms that form at 65W (not debunking the deadzone, but quickly overcoming it upon exit).

[Rainband]

Good post tally.

[Weatherboy1]

There's no evidence of an LLC that I can pick out yet in the SE Carib, to be sure. But in Arnos Value, Trinidad (station TVSV), winds are gusting to 25 knots. Station TTPP is reporting winds out of 240 degrees (WSW) at 10 knots. Station TTCP is reporting winds out of 180 degrees (S) at 6 knots. And in all these stations, pressures are down somewhat (to about 29.91). This is not very low, of course, and could just be the afternoon effect (lower pressures in afternoon than early in the day). But coupled with reports of strong winds in Barbados, this tells me we have a vigorous tropical wave at the very least -- one with much stronger winds and deeper convection than we ever saw from TD2 in the SE Carib. And we could have more in the coming hours. Worth watching ...

[Rainband]

There's no evidence of an LLC that I can pick out yet in the SE Carib, to be sure. But in Arnos Value, Trinidad (station TVSV), winds are gusting to 25 knots. Station TTPP is reporting winds out of 240 degrees (WSW) at 10 knots. Station TTCP is reporting winds out of 180 degrees (S) at 6 knots. And in all these stations, pressures are down somewhat (to about 29.91). This is not very low, of course, and could just be the afternoon effect (lower pressures in afternoon than early in the day). But coupled with reports of strong winds in Barbados, this tells me we have a vigorous tropical wave at the very least -- one with much stronger winds and deeper convection than we ever saw from TD2 in the SE Carib. And we could have more in the coming hours. Worth watching ...

Why did they upgrade it then??

[Weatherboy1]

That's funny -- I was just hitting "submit" on my post based on the wind reports in the islands when the NHC bulletin came out. Looks like the game's afoot with TD #3. The question is, where does he go?

[cycloneye]

That WSW wind was the trigger for NHC to upgrade it.I am eating some crow too.

[hurricanemike]

Observations for PIARCO INTL AIRPORT, Trinidad and Tobago (TTPP):

TTPP 091800Z 26005KT 5000 -SHRA VCSH FEW010CB BKN015TCU BKN090 27/24 Q1013 TEMPO SHRA CB ESE E
TTPP 091700Z 24010KT 9999 FEW010CB BKN016TCU BKN080 27/25 Q1013 NOSIG JP/CB NE TCU N S E W

[Brent]

Observations in windwards and SA coast=No west winds

LOL!

Sorry, I couldn't resist.