Charley Advisories

[Dave C]

This one definately found the very favorable window, that's for sure!

[Brent]

I agree Derek...this storm just has "that look" to it. As I watched the latest satellite images this morning, this system reminded me somewhat of hurricane Gilbert during his formative stage in 1988. While I DON'T believe or forecast this storm will ever reach cat-5 intensity (because few hurricanes ever do), I do believe it will become a significant hurricane in a few days, possibly the second major hurricane of the 2004 season.

WOW... that says a lot.

Looks like this one is ready to defy the "Zone of Death" nickname.

[Weatherboy1]

Just wondering if there is any reason for us in South FL to be concerned here? A 102 knot forecast by SHIPS for intensity at 5 days is worrisome, because in this case (assuming, as you mentioned, that 3 gains latitude), there doesn't seem to be much inhibiting potential development in the Caribbean. At this stage, this looks to be a N Gulf threat. But with troughs making significant progress to the S and E this year, I was wondering if an earlier-than-forecast recurve could happen (such that S FL or Central FL, as opposed to Peninsular FL, could be threatened)?

[Guest]

and who cares if it goes out to sea as a baroclinically Initiated tropical cyclone?

good write-up. personally, i think of 3 areas to watch, the area east of florida has the most potential, and will head toward bermuda

[Weatherboy1]

such that S FL or Central FL, as opposed to Peninsular FL, could be threatened

Er ... make that "Panhandle" FL, not peninsular.

[jlauderdal]

Just wondering if there is any reason for us in South FL to be concerned here? A 102 knot forecast by SHIPS for intensity at 5 days is worrisome, because in this case (assuming, as you mentioned, that 3 gains latitude), there doesn't seem to be much inhibiting potential development in the Caribbean. At this stage, this looks to be a N Gulf threat. But with troughs making significant progress to the S and E this year, I was wondering if an earlier-than-forecast recurve could happen (such that S FL or Central FL, as opposed to Peninsular FL, could be threatened)?

to early now but anything on the western tip of cuba with a trough closing in should be a concern to florida but we have been down this road many times the last 5+ years with no direct hit so you know the drill..pay attention to NHC and this board and you will be more informed than watching brian norcross.

[Brent]

and who cares if it goes out to sea as a baroclinically Initiated tropical cyclone?

good write-up. personally, i think of 3 areas to watch, the area east of florida has the most potential, and will head toward bermuda

I certainly don't.

[rainstorm]

because i believe it will be the most intense of the 3 systems. i complimented you. just my opinion of the 3 systems

[Derek Ortt]

Recon has been finding west winds with TD 2 in the GOM. It may be a 25KT depression. Wont be anything big due to shear though

[SouthernWx]

I agree Derek...this storm just has "that look" to it. As I watched the latest satellite images this morning, this system reminded me somewhat of hurricane Gilbert during his formative stage in 1988. While I DON'T believe or forecast this storm will ever reach cat-5 intensity (because few hurricanes ever do), I do believe it will become a significant hurricane in a few days, possibly the second major hurricane of the 2004 season.

WOW... that says a lot.

Looks like this one is ready to defy the "Zone of Death" nickname.

Brent, if the conditions aloft/ enviroment is favorable enough, there is no zone of death in the eastern Caribbean. If this developing storm indeed takes a track into the northwest Caribbean toward the Cayman Islands and western Cuba as forecast....it could be a monster.

[Stormcenter]

Recon has been finding west winds with TD 2 in the GOM. It may be a 25KT depression. Wont be anything big due to shear though

Nothing big right now but...........maybe later as it moves north. IMO

[Guest]

maybe--- yeah a TD. But I dont consider a weak TD as significant

Recon has been finding west winds with TD 2 in the GOM. It may be a 25KT depression. Wont be anything big due to shear though

[chadtm80]

There is a better chance of ralph nader winning the presidency than NON thing that was once TD 2 developing into a TC

You forget about the possibility of TD#2 developing as MWatkins has mentioned in another thread...If that happens then TD 3 may be forced northward a bit sooner than forecasted!

[Guest]

Just like Isabel will turn out to sea....

because i believe it will be the most intense of the 3 systems. i complimented you. just my opinion of the 3 systems

[Weatherboy1]

Still too early to say what kind of system we'll be dealing with (my suspicion is a strong one) and where it will go (my suspicion from what I've read and seen is the N Gulf coast). But here's the Melbourne, FL AFD, which explains some of the players on the board, as they stand now ...

FRI-MON...GLOBAL MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN...SHOWING ANOTHER UNUSALLY HIGH AMPLITUDE BUCKLING OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN. STRONG TROUGH DIGS INTO THE ERN CONUS...WITH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING WELL SOUTH TWD THE GULF COAST AND SERN STATES...AND VERY MOIST S-SW FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS FL THRU FRI...THEN PERHAPS BACKING MORE TO SE BY THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH
BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. DIFF BTWN THIS TROUGH AND THE LAST IN THAT THE DIGGING WILL OCCUR AROUND 85W AS OPPOSED TO ~75W BY ITS PREDECESSOR ... RESULTING IN STRONG ATLC RIDGE EAST OF THE ERN CONUS AND POSSIBLY LITTLE WWD EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROP PORTION OF THE RIDGE W OF FL. T.D. #3...CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD BEGIN TO FEEL SOME WEAKNESS TO IT'S NORTH ONCE IT CROSSES 80W OR SO AND START TO GAIN LATITUDE. TO WHAT EXTENT AND AT WHICH LONGITDUE THIS OCCURS REMAIN TO BE SEEN - BUT BEING THIS IS A RATHER LARGE SYSTEM ...WE'LL NEED TO KEEP CLOSE TABS ON ITS PROGRESS.

[wayoutfront]

I hope DT does one of those 5 day maps he did last year.


he was dead on with Isabel

[rbaker]

I'll quote Clinton here: It depends what "it" is. If it was not important the nhc would not name a storm if it did not have winds sustained at 39 mph or more. Granted Im not talking about Allen, Camille, or even Andrew, but it's enought to warrant watches and warnings if "warranted". After all if we don't watch potential tds or ts a.k.a Alex, they can get angry in a big hurry. Very recent history tells us that.

[frederic79]

entering the Gulf with its VERY WARM sst's currently warrants serious discussion, much less at strong one at 102 kts. With that kind of fuel, unless shear is unbelievable, they don't get weaker, just stronger before landfall. Lots of factors to consider, but 88+ degree water temps are a given and there are supposedly warmer eddy's to cross along the way. That said, we've seen our share of systems fire up and die in this area that last few years. This is one to watch.

[ChaserUK]

Well this looks like a possible chase for me then. Bit worried about the possible strength of this but what do you experts think about this thing continuing on its course and not curving out E?

[Guest]

The water temps are a little cooler out ahead of td3, but once it gets out near PR, the temps get warmer and warmer as it heads towards the gulf. Gonna be interesting for sure...