Recon to find TD in GOM this afternoon.

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
CocoaBill
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 216
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 10:03 am
Location: Cocoa, FL
Contact:
Contact CocoaBill

#21 Postby CocoaBill » Mon Aug 09, 2004 12:45 pm

are we still looking at a 5pm TD today for GOM? :?:
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38263
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#22 Postby Brent » Mon Aug 09, 2004 12:48 pm

CocoaBill wrote:are we still looking at a 5pm TD today for GOM? :?:


Seems very likely. If recon closes off a center, defintely.
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
c5Camille

#23 Postby c5Camille » Mon Aug 09, 2004 12:49 pm

when sould the plane have the data?
can we expect info prior to 5pm?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
zoeyann
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 610
Joined: Thu Aug 21, 2003 9:27 am
Location: Houma, Louisiana
Contact:
Contact zoeyann

#24 Postby zoeyann » Mon Aug 09, 2004 12:56 pm

I can not see a circulation with ex-td2, not saying there isn't one I just don't see it. Is there still some circulation to it. It looks elongated
0 likes   
Top
Anonymous

#25 Postby Anonymous » Mon Aug 09, 2004 1:18 pm

It has a circulation i can i see it.

Also, man its much farther westward than I thought it would be. Again I am getting nervous this trough needs to hurry.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
zoeyann
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 610
Joined: Thu Aug 21, 2003 9:27 am
Location: Houma, Louisiana
Contact:
Contact zoeyann

#26 Postby zoeyann » Mon Aug 09, 2004 1:19 pm

looks like all bets are off in the tropics
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38263
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#27 Postby Brent » Mon Aug 09, 2004 1:23 pm

I don't even care if this develops now. It's going to fail in comparison to what TD 3 could be down the road!!! :eek:
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
Anonymous

#28 Postby Anonymous » Mon Aug 09, 2004 1:28 pm

It most likely will, but even still, it needs to watched with the warm water of the GOM and the size of the system (small ones can explode rapidly).
0 likes   
Top
Guest

#29 Postby Guest » Mon Aug 09, 2004 1:38 pm

FOLKS

Please stop over reacting to this NON event... this system is NOT going to develop and not develop into any thing significant... Its trajectory is all wrong its too samll and its too late
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hyperstorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1500
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 3:48 am
Location: Ocala, FL

#30 Postby Hyperstorm » Mon Aug 09, 2004 1:41 pm

DT wrote:FOLKS

Please stop over reacting to this NON event... this system is NOT going to develop and not develop into any thing significant... Its trajectory is all wrong its too samll and its too late


I wouldn't be called a Pro Met if I said something this bold. Watch your words...
Last edited by Hyperstorm on Mon Aug 09, 2004 1:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
vbhoutex
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 29133
Age: 74
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
Location: Cypress, TX
Contact:
Contact vbhoutex

#31 Postby vbhoutex » Mon Aug 09, 2004 1:42 pm

Seeing collapsing storms and outflow boundaries with ex td2. Not looking good for a call at 5pm imo. We shall see.
0 likes   
Skywarn, C.E.R.T.
Please click below to donate to STORM2K to help with the expenses of keeping the site going:
Image
Top
Stormcenter
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6685
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
Location: Houston, TX

Overreacting?

#32 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Aug 09, 2004 1:42 pm

DT wrote:FOLKS

Please stop over reacting to this NON event... this system is NOT going to develop and not develop into any thing significant... Its trajectory is all wrong its too samll and its too late


Who's overreacting? We are just having fun here. :lol:

By the way do you like the way crow tastes? :)

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... &itype=vis

I do.
0 likes   
Top
rbaker

I wouldn't give up yet on 91L

#33 Postby rbaker » Mon Aug 09, 2004 2:12 pm

esp. if you have had that much experience, no system with this amount of thunderstorm activity, and banding, just because of some northerly shear, cannot be written off by no means, remember this system was down to a couple showers 3 days ago.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
opera ghost
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 909
Joined: Mon Sep 08, 2003 4:40 pm
Location: Houston, Texas

#34 Postby opera ghost » Mon Aug 09, 2004 2:17 pm

I keep trying to find the circulation on this... and I'm just not seeing any. It looks like it's got a nice curve to it- and the curve is being built up somewhat... but I'm just not seeing circulation.

Am I blind?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

#35 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Aug 09, 2004 2:20 pm

Recon are finding west and SW winds, it will probably be upgraded later today.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5444
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

#36 Postby Nimbus » Mon Aug 09, 2004 2:23 pm

Real small tight little low level circulation.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
vbhoutex
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 29133
Age: 74
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
Location: Cypress, TX
Contact:
Contact vbhoutex

#37 Postby vbhoutex » Mon Aug 09, 2004 2:54 pm

vbhoutex wrote:Seeing collapsing storms and outflow boundaries with ex td2. Not looking good for a call at 5pm imo. We shall see.


I like my crow with barbecue. Recon has confirmed West winds at 32 knots and a very tight small ciruclation as Nimbus has said. Look for a call on this one by 5pm.
0 likes   
Skywarn, C.E.R.T.
Please click below to donate to STORM2K to help with the expenses of keeping the site going:
Image
Top
User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

#38 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Aug 09, 2004 2:55 pm

Rich Johnson on TWC said it maybe uprgraded to a TD or TS at 5pm.
0 likes   
Top
Kennethb
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 506
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 7:15 am
Location: Baton Rouge

#39 Postby Kennethb » Mon Aug 09, 2004 3:09 pm

It appears that the optimal surface wind patterns for former TD2 is not there. There is a low, although weak, over south Louisiana that is having some disruption of the surface winds. Then with TD3 looming behind it, this could have some effect as well.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
MGC
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5936
Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2003 9:05 pm
Location: Pass Christian MS, or what is left.

#40 Postby MGC » Mon Aug 09, 2004 4:45 pm

As it turns out I was a little low on my intensity estimate. TS Bonnie, I can live with that...........MGC
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 53 guests