4:15 PM Special tropical update on TS Bonnie and TD#3

[cycloneye]

About the system in the SE GOM recon has found a very tight circulation and west winds making this a tropical storm.It is moving WNW at about 10 mph and the conditions favor strentgening slowly so all interests in the Gulf Coast must watch it's progress.The models show this system intensifing into a hurricane but it is too early to say with confidence that it will be one.About the future track there is uncertainty about it because many factors may come into play such as troughs and ridges so again all the folks who live in the Gulf Coast keep watching the progress of it.

TD#3 has formed this afternoon as it moved thru the windward islands.A gust of 53 mph in Barbados combined with WSW winds in Trinidad was the cause for the upgrade.This system has the potential to be a hurricane in 5 days as conditions appear favorable for this system to get stronger.As for the track is concerned it is moving 280 west to westnorthwestward at around 22 mph.No major troughs are forecast to deviate this TD more to the north as a ridge to the north will make it not gain plenty of latitud.All interests in the eastern and central caribbean must watch the progress of TD#3 and watches and warnings will surely be up soon for some portions of the central caribbean islands such as Hispanola and Jamaica.

This product is not official.The official source is the National Hurricane Center.

Forecaster=Luis Martinez (Cycloneye)

[HurricaneGirl]

Holy Crap!!

[tw861]

This will be Bonnie, not TD2. Recon finds 55kt surface winds.

[ChaserUK]

Are you saying then that we have TS Bonnie already???

[Guest]

Are you saying then that we have TS Bonnie already???

yes sir.

[cycloneye]

Are you saying then that we have TS Bonnie already???

Yes Chaser officially Bonnie has formed.

[ChaserUK]

Eeek! Just checked out the latest sat and have to say well impressed with the circulation already. Visually you can tell this is greater than 35mph!

[Guest]

I have an idea that TPC has jumped the gun here....

THIS is according to TPC a TS
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/GMEX/VIS/20.jpg


BUT the system in SE Caribbean is NOT?
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/.../recentvis.html


okay...sure...

[goodlife]

wow..so it's a Tropical Storm already...
and the other system out in the Caribbean looks pretty impressive too!

[chadtm80]

I have an idea that TPC has jumped the gun here....

THIS is according to TPC a TS
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/GMEX/VIS/20.jpg


BUT the system in SE Caribbean is NOT?
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/.../recentvis.html


okay...sure...

Recon dosent Lie

[cycloneye]

Recon data of 55 kts is sufficient.

[rbaker]

granted its not your classic ts, but its one nevertheless. Whether this becomes a hurricane,it has some organizing to do.

[ChaserUK]

Blimey I got so confused! I thought TD3 was now TS Bonnie but now I realise that TD2 is TS Bonnie. Sorry, must have been the excitement and too much caffeine! Clearly TS Bonnie is out of the question for a chase but TD3, mmmmm, that might be a better prospect.

[cycloneye]

Yes chaser TD#3 will be your system to watch as it may be a major hurricane down the road if it gets all the ideal conditions.

[ChaserUK]

Taking some valium now - be alright in a sec...

[goodlife]

So how much strengthening are they expecting with Bonnie?
Two systems at one time is too daggone much! lol

[ChaserUK]

NHC seem to think that Bonnie will just be a TS when it reaches somewhere near the FL Panhandle. They do not seem to think it will develop that much do they? TD3 is a different story. Does anyone know if I will need a visa for Cuba?

[Stormsfury]

Like I said in another thread, I'm not sure that the 55 kts estimated wasn't the result of the outflow boundary on the northern front of the cyclone, and second, that the wind wasn't observed in severe convection.

I don't doubt that it is a tropical storm, however ...

[Air Force Met]

Like I said in another thread, I'm not sure that the 55 kts estimated wasn't the result of the outflow boundary on the northern front of the cyclone, and second, that the wind wasn't observed in severe convection.

I don't doubt that it is a tropical storm, however ...

The wind was in the SE quad. But...I don't doubt it was 56 kts and don't think it was an outflow boundry. THe pressure gradient is very steep. A low of 1007mb and 1014mb just 30 miles away. That's steep enough to produce 56 kts easily.

[Andrew92]

So how much strengthening are they expecting with Bonnie?
Two systems at one time is too daggone much! lol

Then how did you get by in August 1995 and September 1998? Four storms at some point in both of those months, including all four of 'em being hurricanes in '98.

I don't think it's impossible for Bonnie to become a hurricane, but I don't see it happening, but I'll be watching it along with, of course, TD #3, which I fully believe will become Charley. I'd be really surprised, right now, if it doesn't become a hurricane even (and I don't say that too often, so enjoy it), but of course, things can change for the unexpected, too.

-Andrew92