Bonnie Advisories

[tallywx]

Looks like the NHC somewhat took the convective explanation into consideration.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FOUND A SMALL BUT VERY TIGHT SURFACE CIRCULATION AND 56 KT 1500 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS.
NORMALLY THIS WOULD EQUATE TO 48 SURFACE WINDS...BUT THE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER IS SMALL AND NOT PARTICULARLY WELL ORGANIZED. THE RAPID SPIN UP IN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD COULD EASILY SPINDOWN IF THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION WEAKENS OR DISSIPATES. SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS A BLEND OF THE RECON WINDS AND A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5...OR 35 KT...FROM TAFB.

[paulvogel]

At 6 pm Mon, Aug 09, 2004, TROPICAL STORM BONNIE was located near 23.2N 88.7W approx. 1385 nm WSW of Bermuda.

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE has maximum sustained winds of 40Kt gusts 50Kt, and is moving NW or 310 degrees at 10 Kt.

[Brent]

fair point.... but is the gust to 56 knots a convective Gust or real?

Really doesn't matter... the winds are 40 kts anyway. It's not like they set the winds to 50 or 55 kts.

[rbaker]

give in dt, its a storm, no one is going to hit you on top of the head for being wrong on this one. Heck I thought this one was worse than its predesessor before it and it had more convection down there by caymans, I believe it was td no 1 and it was a fizzler.

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl022004forecast.html


not a cane, though we were surprised when recon found those strong winds

[PTrackerLA]

Almost wish we could get a weak TS here in south Louisiana. It's been very dry lately and we could desperately use the rain. But I don't see how Bonnie could hit us because of the big trough coming down.

[Stormcenter]

Bonnie seems to be moving at a good (15mph)clip.
This is important since a majority of the models
don't have it moving past 90 before starting a northward
motion. If it continues moving at this clip and then turn
northward past 90 then it would change the projected track.
Just something to keep an eye open for if you live along the
central and NE GOM.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... &itype=vis

[Dave C]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... tion=42001
check out the water temp! Buoy is north of Bonnie

[BreinLa]

Oh No PT we don't want Bonnie I am not ready yet lol

[The Dark Knight]

The latest models are showing a trough that is currently extended from Eastern Minnesota to Central Oklahoma will be moving through the South and will probably pick up our X-TD 1 and skirt it up the coast..... The NOGAPS and the UKMET are "go" on this senario happening.....It will be interesting to see how this will play out..... When the system is over Southern Alabama, a ridge will be dropping southward and building over Tennesse......... We will see how this plays out....
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[Stormcenter]

Almost wish we could get a weak TS here in south Louisiana. It's been very dry lately and we could desperately use the rain. But I don't see how Bonnie could hit us because of the big trough coming down.

Very possible scenario if Bonnie doesn't slow down. The projected track is based on Bonnie slowing down within the next 12-14 hours and then getting picked up by the trough. Right now she is not and still moving NW at around 15mph. Now of course she may eventually do that.
But the more west she moves the more likely for a north central
(SE La, MS, AL)GOM landfall. IMO

[Stormsfury]

fair point.... but is the gust to 56 knots a convective Gust or real?

I have my issues as well with the 55 kt estimated SFC wnd also ... since on the northern front of the cyclone, there was a huge outflow boundary that busted out of her (look at my T.D. #2 (or Bonnie) has some issues thread ...

IMHO, that gust was convectively enhanced by a severe thunderstorm squall ...

[Dean4Storms]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.phtml?station=42001
check out the water temp! Buoy is north of Bonnie

This 90 degree water can do nothing more than help this storm to deepen and get larger IMO. I think the intensity forecasts may not be taking these temps into consideration at least before the trough arrives.. But, one would think once the TC gets caught up in the westerlies that shear would begin to weaken it some.

[Janie34]

Good call. I think timing will be everything with Bonnie. How quickly will she move and what happens in her response to the trough? I have to say that a Florida Panhandle landfall looks probable at this point in time. I'm in agreement with that scenario. The front looks to clear Alabama by Thursday at this point, and I think the trough will pick up the system and move it towards Florida.

[The Dark Knight]

Sorry about the 91L title... I was looking at the NHC site and I got all confused...LOL...

[Stormcenter]

fair point.... but is the gust to 56 knots a convective Gust or real?

I have my issues as well with the 55 kt estimated SFC wnd also ... since on the northern front of the cyclone, there was a huge outflow boundary that busted out of her (look at my T.D. #2 (or Bonnie) has some issues thread ...

IMHO, that gust was convectively enhanced by a severe thunderstorm squall ...

Bonnie is starting to wrap around. Note the convection building all around.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... &itype=vis

[HurricaneGirl]

Hurray for Tropical Storm Bonnie!!

[Janie34]

Yah, thats whats concerning me about Bonnie at the moment, aside from the problematic intensity forecast. How far west will she travel and when/where does she make the north or north/northeast turn? Still a lot of question marks here...

[Hurricanehink]

Hip-hip horray!

[MGC]

Like I said a couple of days ago when plenty of folks were looking at something to develope along the frontal boundry in the Gulf. I was hedging my bets on X-TD-2. I slways thought this was the only solution....MGC